MONDAY UPDATE: Actuals are in for the Christmas weekend, and the East Coast blizzards took their toll on box office. All the numbers were down 5% to 10% from studio projections, and Sunday’s moviegoing in the Northeast fell about 40%:

Top 10 Actuals
1. The Little Fockers (Universal) [3,536 Theaters]
Weekend $30.8M, Cume $45M
2. True Grit (Paramount) [3,047 Theaters]
Weekend $24.8M, Cume $36M
3. Tron: Legacy 3D (Disney) [3,451 Theaters]
Weekend $19.1M, Cume $87.3M
4. Chronicles Of Narnia 3D (Fox) [3,350 Theaters]
Weekend $9.4M, Cume $62.5M
5. Yogi Bear 3D (Warner Bros) [3,515 Theaters]
Weekend $7.8M, Cume $35.8M
6. The Fighter (Relativity/Paramount) [2,511 Theaters]
Weekend $7.6M, Cume $26.6M
7. Tangled 3D (Disney) [2,582 Theaters]
Weekend $6.4M, Cume $143.6M
8. Gulliver’s Travels 3D (Fox) [2,546 Theaters]
2-Day Weekend $6.3M, Cume $6.3M
9. Black Swan ( Fox Searchlight) [1,466 Theaters]
Weekend $6.2M, Cume $28.6M
10. The Tourist (GK Films/Sony) [2,756 Theaters]
Weekend $5.4M, Cume $40.8M

SUNDAY AM DAY-AFTER-CHRISTMAS UPDATE: Here are North American box office estimates for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday for the 5-day holiday weekend. Christmas Eve always means very soft moviegoing while Christmas Day gets going late in the day. An East Coast blizzard should hurt Sunday’s moviegoing overall. Fox’s not-very-anticipated Gulliver’s Travels starring Jack Black opened Saturday in 2,546 theaters and did the expected poor business, showing that 3D higher ticket prices are no help for bad buzz. The Weinstein Co’s Oscar-touted The King’s Speech widened to 700 runs after platforming 4 weeks and finished in 11th place. Interesting to note that, one week after opening and already Jim Brooks’ How Do You Know bomb for Sony has fallen out of the Top 10 (below) despite a top cast.

1. Little Fockers (Universal) NEW [3,536 Theaters]
Wednesday $7.2M, Thursday $7.1M, Friday $5M, Saturday $14.5M
3-Day Weekend $34M, Cume $48.3M

This was supposed to be the big get-out-the-audience Christmas weekend family comedy, and exit polling showed the audience was 57%/43% female vs. male, and 53%/47% under vs over age 30. Granted, the Christmas Day total was almost 3 times Christmas Eve. But these are Universal’s own less-than-encouraging numbers as well as 3-day weekend and 5-day holiday cumes for this third in the Meet The Parents/Meet The Fockers franchise starring Robert de Niro and Ben Stiller, with the Friday and Saturday estimates for Little Fockers only about 75% of the take for the same exact play period of Meet The Fockers which also opened during the Christmas holiday. Watching the sausage being made when it came to this major studio laugher wasn’t pretty. At one point, Universal contemplated replacing director Paul Weitz with producer-writer John Hamburg on The Little Fockers. But that would have resulted in a Directors Guild dust-up. Plus, Adam Fogelson had just taken over as Uni Pictures chairman and didn’t want to throw the already traumatized studio into a worse funk. So the decision was made to fix the movie in post. Weitz, Hamburg, Stiller, and Jay Roach spent two months going through the footage and finalized a week of pickups with all the principal cast. So Universal scheduled more than half a dozen full-blown scenes, including 4 with Dustin Hoffman who originally had been written out of the threequel when the studio couldn’t reach a deal with him. But Hamburg and Roach helped convince Dustin to reprise his role opposite Barbra Streisand and he didn’t come cheap. This is now at least a $100M budget film. Universal continued to spin that Little Fockers could have gone out “as is” but the studio “wanted to make it better as an investment in the future of the franchise.” I always thought this threequel would kill the studio’s golden goose — and with only 9% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and a “B-” CinemaScore, it likely did.

2. True Grit (Paramount) NEW [3,047 Theaters]
Wednesday $5.5M, Thursday $5.6M, Friday $4.7M, Saturday $10.4M
3-Day Weekend $25.6M, Cume $36.8M

Given that Christmas Eve is more of an adult moviegoing time, it’s not surprising that the writer/director Coen Brothers’ Oscar-touted 2D Western take on the Charles Portis novel (and they claim not to have watched the first movie that won John Wayne his Oscar in 1969) jumped into the No. 2 spot Friday based on both male quadrants. But it stayed there Saturday, which was a shock. Turns out this is the biggest opener for a Coen Brothers film (passing Burn After Reading‘s $19.1M) and bigger even than that other Oscar-touted pic The Social Network‘s $22.5M weekend opener. “It almost doubled people’s expectations and it beat Tron: Legacy 3D for 2nd which no one saw coming,” a Paramount exec gushed, calling the result “excellent”. With only a $38M budget and a big 95% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, plus great acting and quirky dialogue, this pic has a good shot of making coin. And yet no one could understand why anyone would want to remake it in the first place. (And, yes, I consider this a remake.)

3. Tron 3D (Disney) Week 2 [3,451 Theaters]
Wednesday $5.6M, Thursday $6.1M, Friday $3.9M, Saturday $7.8M
3-Day Weedend $20.1M (-54%), Cume $88.3M

The jury is definitely out on its legs as rival studios don’t think tepid reviews will help spread any positive word-of-mouth to the non-fanboy crowd. No doubt Tron: Legacy 3D will pass $100M domestic grosses before the end of this year. But with a budget estimated as $150M, and a global marketing push estimated at another $120M, this Christmas gift from Walt Disney Studios’ previous Dick Cook administration but premoted by the present-day Rich Ross crew in charge will have to depend on international overperforming to break even. Abroad, Tron: Legacy is currently in release in 34 territories representing 65% of the international market and has done $65.5M, for a worldwide total now of $153.8M.

4. Narnia 3D/Dawn Treader (Walden/Fox) Week 3 [3,350 Theaters]
Wednesday $2.5M, Thursday $2.9M, Friday $2.2M, Saturday $3.7M
3-Day Weekend $10.8M, Cume $63.9M

With Yogi Bear failing, Narnia 3 may end up as the beneficiary since word-of-mouth is good. After a disappointing debut, it still could become the default family choice for moviegoing over the holiday period.

5. Yogi Bear 3D (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,515 Theaters]
Wednesday $2.9M, Thursday $3.2M, Friday $2.1M, Saturday $2.5M
3-Day Weekend $8.8M (-46%), Cume $36.7M

When Yogi 3D can’t even muster much of a Christmas Day kid’s bump, you know this bear is a bomb. Pic will continue to play young which will limit its staying power.

6. The Fighter (Relativity/Paramount) Week 3 [2,503 Theaters]
Wednesday $1.3M, Thursday $1.5M, Friday $1.2M, Saturday $3.4M
3-Day Weekend $8.5M, Cume $27.5M

With only a $25M budget, this Oscar-touted movie will make money, though not as quickly as once thought.

7. Gulliver’s Travels 3D (Fox) NEW [2,546 Theaters]
Saturday $3.5M
2-Day Weekend $7.2M

Twentieth Century Fox moved Gulliver’s Travels back three days to Christmas Day to get away from some of the other 3D movies and in hopes of becoming “the only new present under the tree, so to speak,” as a Fox exec told me. Nope. Plus it gave the studio time to advertise more. One big plus: Jack Black was a trouper and went everywhere to promote. Didn’t help. Of its locations, 1,000 were 3D but even the higher ticket prices couldn’t overcome the bad buzz even though the studio is convinced the pic is “cute and satisfying”. Tracking had been lousy but I don’t get why Fox intentionally lost Wednesday and Thursday, which are good movie-going days with all the kids out of school for this film veery much aimed at families. The studio obviously thought The Little Fockers would be more of an event movie this week than it turned out to be. I understand that the Gulliver’s Travels budget with 3D conversion was right at $115M. (The pic was shot in the UK, so the studio got tax breaks there, though mostly the movie was created in post to get the right size and scale shots.) Since the book has great cultural meaning internationally, Fox is hoping the title translates to broad awareness and does well overseas, especially with those Star Wars and Transformers gags. (Audible groan.)

8. Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Week 4 [1,466 Theaters]
Wednesday $1.7M, Thursday $1.7M, Friday $1M, Saturday $2.5M
3-Day Weekend $6.6M, Cume $29M

This Oscar-tipped ballerina horror movie — never thought I’d use those words in the same sentence — keeps defying the odds. Then again, it’s playing only in upscale, sophisticated markets and theaters.

9. Tangled 3D (Disney) Week 5 [2,582 Theaters]
Wednesday $2.2M, Thursday $2.6M, Friday $1.7M, Saturday $2.3M
3-Day Weekend $6.5M, Cume $143.7M

This Rapunzel retelling, Tangled 3D, has now surged past DreamWorks’ Megamind ($142M) — something, frankly, that no one thought it could or would do. But Disney’s marketing machine widened the audience well beyond young girls. Again, this is another gift from the previous Walt Disney Studios’ Dick Cook administration for Rich Ross & crew. Overseas, Tangled is currently in release in 18 territories representing 45% of the international market for a total $118M or worldwide cume of $261.8M.

10. The Tourist (GK Films/Sony) Week 3 [2,756 Theaters]
Wednesday $1M, Thursday $1.1M, Friday $875K, Saturday $2.3M
3-Day Weekend $5.7M, Cume $41.2M

Specialty Movies
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Co) Week 5 [700 Theaters]
3-Day Weekend $4.5M, Cume $8.4M

127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) Week 8 [115 Theaters]
3-Day Weekend $205K, Cume $9.8M

Somewhere (Focus Features) Week 1 [7 Theaters]
3-Day Weekend $142K, Cume $196K

Country Strong (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 1 [2 Theaters]
3-Day Weekend $34K, Cume $47K

Rabbit Hole (Lionsgate) Week 2 [34 Theaters]
3-Day Weekend $95K, Cume $176K

The Illusionist (Sony Pictures Classics) NEW [3 Theaters]
2-Day Weekend $58K, Cume $58K

Casino Jack (ATO) Week 2 [15 Theaters]
3-Day Weekend $61K, Cume $111K

The Tempest (Touchstone/Miramax) Week 3 [13 Theaters]
3-Day Weekend $33K, Cume $194K