SUNDAY AM: Here are Friday, Saturday, weekend, and cume estimates:
1. Pixar/Disney’s Toy Story 3 is the 3D monster everybody thought it would be with $41 million Friday and $37 million Saturday and an estimated $31M Sunday on 4,028 locations, including 2,463 3D screens (of which 180 are IMAX which did $8.4M at 180 theaters or 8% of TS3 overall weekend domestic gross for the biggest IMAX animated film ever and the 5th highest IMAX domestic opener ever). The 3D ticket price advantage made this Pixar’s biggest, swamping previous Pixar 2D opening weekends, including 2003 Finding Nemo‘s $70.2M and 2004 The Incredibles‘ $70.4M. Toy Story 3 will debut to $111M this weekend (with that fat +46% admission price which adds about $18M to every $100M of box office gross). But TS3 was still 2nd to Shrek 3‘s opening. “The Toy Story films are the heart and soul of Pixar,” said Darla K. Anderson, producer of Toy Story 3. Which is why it drew 40% of its non-family audience from young adults ages 17-24 who grew up with the Toy Story characters and Disney targeted them with college screening programs. Also going for it were brilliant reviews with a Cinema Score of “A” and a Rotten Tomatoes tally of “99%” positive reviews. Plus, Fathers Day is a huge moviegoing opportunity for families — “if you have the right movie,” a studio exec reminds me. Which this is, of course. This threequel gives Pixar/Disney their 11th No. 1 debut, the highest June weekend opening in industry history, and only the 3rd animated film in history with an opening 3-day weekend of over $100M.
Day and date overseas, Toy Story 3 made $44.8M, representing 25% of the market, with strong showings in Latin America driven by Mexico, Brazil & Argentina which together earned $20M. China realized $9.5M, the biggest weekend in history for an animated title in this market. That puts the pic’s worldwide cume at $153.8M.
2. Sony Pictures’ holdover Karate Kid, which has been doing surprisingly strong midweek numbers since school let out, made $8.8M Friday and $11.2 Saturday and an estimated $8.9M Sunday from 3,663 runs for $28.5M (and a week’s drop of only -48%). By the end of the weekend, its cume is already $106.2M.
3. Fox’s The A-Team drops -46% from its poor opening a week ago for a $4.2M Friday and $5.2M Saturday from 3,544 theaters and a $13.7M weekend with cume of $49.7M.
4. Get Him To The Greek (Universal) Week 3 [2,592 Theaters]
Friday $2M, Saturday $2.3M, Weekend $6.1M, Estimated Cume $47.9M
5. Shrek Forever After 3D (DWAnimation/Par) Week 5 [3,207]
Friday $1.6M, Saturday $2.0M, Weekend $5.5M, Cume $222.9M
6. Prince of Persia (Disney) Week 4 [2,605 Theaters]
Friday $1.5M, Saturday $2.1M, Weekend $5.3M, Cume $80.5M
International Cume $213.1M, Worldwide Cume $293.6M
7. By contrast, newcomer Warner Bros’ Jonah Hex already is such a flop that it’s not even meeting the studio’s low opening weekend expectation of $10M from 2,825 venues after it wasn’t tracking. My sources say it opened to only $1.9M Friday and $1.7M Saturday so it’s hard-pressed to get to even $5M this weekend. As one Warner Bros exec said about the lesson learned; “You don’t take a handsome actor and disgfigure him.” The studio is so embarrassed that it took great pains to points out that the pic was greenlighted before Diane Nelson took over as DC Entertainment prez. About the cowboy with the disfigured face and legend that he can’t be killed, a minor character in the DC Comics galaxy of stars, Jonah Hex was attempted on the cheap. The studio claims the final budget was $35M. UPDATE: But I hear Warner Bros cut the original budget of $80M to $40M right before production with no script changes. Then the studio did 70 pages of reshoots about 6 months ago. That may have added another $25M for a new budget of $65M. Ouch! As one insider tells me, “the studio looked at the movie a long time ago and wrote it off”.
8. Killers (Lionsgate) Week 3 [2,619 Theaters]
Friday $1.7M, Saturday $1.9M, Weekend $5.1M, Cume $39.3M
9. Iron Man 2 (Marvel/Paramount) Week 7 [1,612 Theaters]
Friday $711K, Saturday $1.0M, Weekend $2.6M, Cume $304M
10. Marmaduke (Fox) Week 3 [2,495 Theaters]
Friday $675K, Saturday $1.2M, Weekend $2.6M, Cume $27.8M
In the specialty business, Fox Searchlight platformed Cyrus, which had its world premiere at the Sundance Film Festival, in 4 theaters — 2 in LA, 2 in NYC — Friday for $51K with a strong per screen average of $13K per theater. This is the biggest Friday opening of a limited release this year and bodes well for a strong weekend. Saturday’s take was $70K, with a per screen average over $17K, or +30%. Weekend opening was $180K with a strong average of $45,072 per theater. That average makes it the second biggest limited opening of the year. Studio plans to expand it June 25th in Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Washington DC, Austin, and Toronto. More runs will be added in LA and NY, bringing the total number of theaters to 17. It reaches national break in the 5th week of release starting July 16th. Written and directed by Jay and Mark Duplass, and produced by Fox Searchlight in conjunction with Scott Free (Tony & Ridley Scott), Cyrus was made for a very modest budget of less than $7 million and employed improvisational techniques for a cast including John C Reilly, Jonah Hill, Marisa Tomei, and Catherine Keener.
Overall, it looks like a big $200M moviegoing weekend, way up +33% from last year.
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