SUMMER MOVIES START WITH A HOWL: 'Wolverine' Opens Big To $87M Weekend; 'Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past' Only $15.3M

SUNDAY AM: Here are Fox’s final figures for the franchise prequel X-Men Origins: Wolverine — $35M on Friday (including $5 million in midnight shows), $29.7M on Saturday, and an estimated $22.2M for Sunday. That makes for an $87M weekend — better than the 1st and 2nd installments in the X-Men franchise, but well behind the 3rd. That’s certainly good enough to warrant another Wolverine.

In 2nd place, New Line/Warner Bros’ Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past debuted to a less-than-satisfying $15.3M weekend.

Here’s the Top 10:

1. Wolverine (Fox) OPENER [4,099 Theaters] $87M Wkd
2. Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past (NL/WB) OPENER [3,175] $15.3 Wkd
3. Obsessed (SG/Sony) [2,514] WEEK 2, $12.2M Wkd (-57%), Cume $47M
4. 17 Again (NL/WB) [3,255] WEEK 3, $6.3M Wkd, Cume $48.4M
5. Monsters v Aliens (DWA/Par) WEEK 6, [2,626] $5.8M Wkd, Cume $182.4M
6. The Soloist (DW/Par) [2,033] WEEK 2, $5.6M Wkd (-42%), Cume $18.1M
7. Earth (Disney) [1,804] WEEK 2, $4.1M Wkd (-53%), Cume $21.8M
8. Fighting (Rogue/Uni) [2,312] WEEK 2, $4.1M Wkd (-62%), Cume $17.5M
9. Hannah Montana (Disney) [2,819] WEEK 4, $4M Wkd, Cume $70.8M
10. State of Play [2,445] WEEK 3, $3.6M Wkd, Cume $30.8M

SATURDAY 9 PM: Sources tell me that Fox’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine made about $31 million Saturday so the weekend should top out at $89M. In 2nd place, New Line/Warner Bros’ Ghosts of Girlfriends Past earned $6.2M Saturday for a $16M weekend. And No. 3 goes to Screen Gems / Sony’s Obsessed with $5.7M Saturday for a $13M weekend and new cume of $47.5M.

SATURDAY AM: Even rival studios are saying it’s possible for the franchise prequel X-Men Origins: Wolverine to scoop up $90M this weekend if moviegoing stays strong, though a safer bet might be $85M. (Photos by Jim Stevenson: 9:45 PM show at Vista Theatre in Los Feliz.)

FRIDAY 10 PM UPDATE: Sources tell me that Fox’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine had a stunning $35 million debut Friday thanks in part to heavy attendance at tonight’s shows and the studio’s widest release ever into 4,099 theaters. That includes the $5 million midnight shows at 2,000 venues.) Comparables include Iron Man, which made $39M its opening Friday, and Fast & Furious which earned $30.5M.

In 2nd place is New Line/Warner Bros’ Ghosts of Girlfriends Past which debuted with $5.8M Friday for a projected weekend total somewhere around $15M.

FRIDAY 10:15 AM: I’m told that unofficial estimates for Thursday midnight / Friday 12:01 AM screenings at 2,000 theaters have Fox’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine opening to close to $5 million, which is a good start. Besides the widest release in Fox history into 4,099 North American venues, the studio will be showing the prequel on 9,000+ prints in 101 markets internationally (excluding Mexico, India, and Japan. So the summer movie season is on!

Already, rival studios are telling me that New Line/Warner Bros’ Ghosts Of Girlfriends Past is running behind Maid Of Honor which opened to $14.7M on the same weekend last year. “McDreamy trumps Dirk Pitt?”

Fandango reports that Wolverine was scooping up 81% of all online ticket sales as of 9 AM with the buyers averaging 48%/51% women/men. Also, 72% said Hugh Jackman was the most significant factor in prompting them to buy a ticket. But MovieTickets.com says that yesterday Wolverine trailed ticket sales for Transformers by 2-to-1 at the same point in the sales cycle.

THURSDAY PM: Well, with Internet piracy, swine flu, NBA and NHL playoffs, lousy reviews… what did you expect the weekend total for X-Men Origins: Wolverine to be? Interestingly, Twentieth Century Fox this week lowered its 3-day estimate from $80M to $75M for the Hugh Jackman starrer. (Could he have gotten his body any buffer? Even Jackman’s wife told the press she thought his 8-pack abs were “ridiculous”.) But rival studios still think it’s possible for Wolverine to do Iron Man-like $100+M numbers. Besides, the first weekend in May always proves lucky for the first summer blockbuster out of the gate. So probably the real figure lies somewhere inbetween, like $85M.

Then again, even fanboys are no longer expecting a big fat debut along the order of the 2006 threequel X-Men 3: The Last Stand‘s $102.7M, and predict it’ll be more like the 2003 sequel X-Men 2: United‘s $85.5M. (They cost $210+M and $110+M, respectively.) For those keeping score, X-Men opened to $54.4M back in 2000.

Meanwhile, Hollywood keeps underestimating the drawing power of what is now a string of “It’s Me, Not You” relationship pics from New Line /Warner Bros, mostly because they’re nauseating. This weekend’s counterprogramming of the Matthew McConaughey-Jennifer Garner starring Ghosts of Girlfriends Past should reach $18M and maybe even get to $20M if female moviegoers don’t get spooked by swine flu.