Welcome to Fall 2007’s first official weekend prediction. Lionsgate’s 3:10 to Yuma has that incredibly interesting pairing of Russell Crowe and Christian Bale with director James Mangold, but it’s causing consternation among my box office gurus. They agree it should be the No. 1 pic, but pessimists are predicting only a $10 mil debut from 2,652 theaters. Even optimists note that, while the tracking to them suggests a generous $12.5 mil opening (and even that is hardly OK for a $50 mil film with over $30 mil in P & A), Yuma‘s “awareness” number is “disproportionately small. Not a good sign.” My analysts predict that MGM / The Weinstein Co’s Labor Day record setting holdover, Halloween, should drop a gigantic -70% and muster $8 mil or so from 3,475 runs. Sony’s Superbad in 3,069 dates should come in around $7 mil or $8 mill. As for New Line’s ridiculous Shoot ‘Em Up playing in 2,108 venues, I’m told to expect only $6 mil to $7 mil.
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