4th UPDATE, Friday 10:20 PM, Weekend outlook: Black Friday, one of the mothers of moviegoing days, racked up an estimated $69.2M for the top 20 movies, repping a 104% surge over Thanksgiving’s B.O., a day when most folks stay at home. It wasn’t unusual to see most films chalking up 100% upticks in their Friday grosses over Thursday, with films like 20th Century Fox’s The Peanuts Movie and Open Road’s Spotlight seeing near two fold increases over Thanksgiving.
Katniss was always destined to be on top at the Thanksgiving Day stretch, but always pacing behind her former self in Mockingjay-Part 1. Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay-Part 2 spiked 100% on Friday over Thanksgiving making an estimated $20.8M, which is $3.4M short of what MJ1 did on Black Friday last year.
The second weekend for MJ2 currently looks to be off by 52% with $48.9M, while over 5-days, the film is expected to take in $73M. As we always predicted, MJ2 was bound to slot third over the Turkey stretch behind Catching Fire (2nd FSS: $74.1M, 5-day: $109.9M) and MJ1 (2nd FSS: $57M, 5-day: $82.7M).
Still, the masses won’t quit Katniss. Per RelishMix, Twitter hashtags for the film –#HungerGames, #Mockingjay and #MockingjayPart2 — even though they’ve subsided since last week, are outnumbering those for The Good Dinosaur, Creed and Victor Frankenstein. Daily, MJ2 has 15K hashtags daily, predominantly spurred by females (no shocker there). The overall sentiment from the social chatter illustrates a sense of nostalgia from the fans; that they’ll miss the series. Facebook and Twitter posts range from costumed fan photos in theater lobbies to Hunger Games emojis.
So with all this groundswell, why does MJ2 continue to lag behind MJ1, and even Catching Fire at the box office?
One rival studio executive remarked that the decline in the novels’ sales between Catching Fire and Mockingjay is also attributed to the downturn in the sequels’ movie ticket sales: “Catching Fire was the most entertaining and Mockingjay transitioned out of the whole fun of the games and the mocking of the infotainment world and turned the Hunger Games storyline into a revolution story; a war-in-the-streets movie. The first two films stoked young teenage girls with the whole plotline of which guy Katniss was going to hook up with. But Mockingjay is all about taking it to the man. As big franchises go, it was risky to make a movie like that, but to Lionsgate and the producer/director’s credit, they followed the book for the sake of fans and didn’t homogenize it for mass consumption.”
The Friday for Disney/Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur is up 130% over Thanksgiving with an estimated $15.1M on track for a FSS of $38M and 5-day of $54.4M. Keep in mind these figures tonight are as of 12 midnight east coat time, so by tomorrow morning, we’ll see whether west coast ticket sales improved upon projections. Despite the glowing reviews and A CinemaScore, some of the buzz on Good Dinosaur has not been as fervent as June’s Inside Out. That film easily delighted kids, but emotionally moved adults with its smart psychological story about an adolescent girl’s development. Good Dinosaur skews much younger in its appeal than the average Pixar film and in a lighthearted way; quite similar to how Cars resonated with moviegoers.
RelishMix praises the social media campaign for The Good Dinosaur: For a Pixar kids film, it has a strong reach. Good Dinosaur’s social media universe is comprised of 96M including 65M Facebook fans, 8M Twitter followers, 1.8M Instagram followers and 21.2M YouTube views. RelishMix observes that the leading social media star of the film is actually the Pixar studio with 20.3M fans across Facebook, Twitter and Instagram along, however, voiceover talent Jeffrey Wright and Anna Paquin are also joining the online conversation.The official YouTube trailer drew in a strong 10.8M views. Twitter hashtags #GoodDino, #TheGoodDinosaur and #GoodDinosaur have popped during the week to 4.3k daily. While these daily hashtags are a little behind Creed’s 5.3k, note that this level of activity for an animated feature is strong vs other pic genres.
MGM/New Line’s Creed distributed by Warner Bros. is looking at an estimated $11.2M today, +74% over Friday. Weekend projections have been readjusted down to $27.3M over FSS and $39.7M over 5-days; still a strong start for this Rocky spinoff which has some huge buzz behind it, in particular there’s some early awards buzz for Sylvester Stallone’s supporting turn as the aged pugilist. Again, these estimates are projected from east coast estimates, so we might see a rosier outlook on Saturday AM. Talk about reinvigorating the Rocky franchise:By Sunday, hands down, Ryan Coogler’s Creed will beat the $21.9M 5-day B.O. and $26.7M 6-day take of 2006’s Rocky Balboa which Stallone wrote and directed. At the time, many talked about that film as the swan song for the character.
The holiday weekend’s third wide entry, Victor Frankenstein, is just completely buried by new, holdover and specialty competition. Fox opted to take this genre film out over the Thanksgiving weekend, so as to avoid the competitive pre-Halloween period, which wasn’t any nicer to horror fare (except the PG-rated Goosebumps which will near $78M by Sunday). Just like audiences weren’t asking for another Peter Pan film with Warner Bros.’ Pan, no one was begging for another Frankenstein movie. It also doesn’t help that this title is following in the footsteps of Lionsgate’s I, Frankenstein (even though that came out close to 2 years ago), one of the worst reviewed movies of 2014 (at 3% rotten)…in fact that movie opened to a higher number at $8.6M. Fox’s Victor looks to ignite a low voltage of $2M over the 3-day and $3.1M over 5-days. Light candles and say prayers that foreign recoups for this $40M production. With such notable British talent, maybe Victor Frankenstein pulls off a B.O. trajectory like Dracula Untold where foreign generate 3x or more than domestic receipts.
Focus Features’ The Danish Girl is off to a solid start with a projected near $50K per theater at four locations spread between New York and Los Angeles. The Tom Hooper directed film opened on Friday. Weinstein Co’s Carol is posting a second weekend decline that’s in the vicinity of last year’s The Imitation Game.
The Top 12 films per industry estimates for the weekend of Nov. 27-29, Friday percentage change compared to Thanksgiving day daily gross:
1). The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 (LGF), 4,175 theaters (0) / $20.8M Fri. (+100%) / 3-day cume: $48.9M (-52%) /5-day cume:$73M /Total cume: $195.6M/Wk 2
2). The Good Dinosaur (DIS), 3,749 theaters / $15.1M Fri. (+130%) / 3-day cume: $38M /5-day cume: $54.4M /Wk 1
3). Creed (MGM/New Line/WB), 3,404 theaters / $11.2M Fri. (+74%) / 3-day cume: $27.3M /5-day cume: $39.7M /Wk 1
4). Spectre (SONY), 2,940 theaters (-719)/ $5.2M Fri. (+94%)/ 3-day cume: $12.9M (-14%)/5-day cume: $18.3M/ Total cume: $176.2M /Wk 4
5). The Peanuts Movie (FOX), 3,006 theaters (-665)/ $3.9M Fri. (+172%) / 3-day cume: $9.7M (-27%)/5-day cume:$13.6M/Total cume: $116.8M /Wk 4
6). The Night Before (SONY), 2,960, theaters (0)/ $2.9M Fri.(+75%)/ 3-day cume: $7.3M (-26%)/5-day cume:/Total: $10.6M/Total cume: $23.2M/Wk 2
7). Secret In Their Eyes (STX), 2,392 theaters / $1.7M Fri.(+130%) / 3-day cume: $4.5M (-32%)/5-day: $6M/Total cume: $14.1M/Wk 2
8). Spotlight (OPRD), 897 theaters (+299) / $1.6M Fri. (+178%) / 3-day cume: $4.3 (+22%) /5-day:$5.5M/ Total cume: $12.2M /Wk 4
9). Love The Coopers (LGF), 1,951 theaters (-652)/ $1.26M Fri. (+66%) / 3-day cume: $3.3M (-20%) /5-day cume:$4.6M/Total cume: $20.7M/Wk 3
10). The Martian (FOX), 1,407 theaters (-679) / $1.28M Fri. (+100%)/ 3-day cume: $3.1M (-18%)/5-day: $4.35M/ Total cume: $218.5M / Wk 9
11). Brooklyn (FSL), 824 theaters (+713) / $1.28M Fri. (+163%)/3-day cume: $3.3M (+181%)/5-day: $4.3M/Total cume: $6.7M /Wk 4
12). Victor Frankenstein (FOX), 2,737 theaters / $804K Fri. (+71%)/3-day cume: $2M/5-day: $3.1M/Wk 1
Tamasha (UTV), 182 theaters / $68K Fri./3-day cume: $699K / 5-day: $1.1M/Wk 1
Legend (UNI), 40 theaters / $100K Fri. (+87%) /3-day cume: $252K (+190%)/3-day PTA: $6K /5-day: $372K/Total cume: $482K/Wk 2
Carol (TWC), 4 theaters / $70K Fri. (+110%) /3-day cume: $194K (-23%) /3-day PTA: $49K/5-day cume: $267K/Total: $579K/Wk 2
The Danish Girl (FOC), 4 theaters / $68K Fri./3-day cume: $189K / Per screen: $47K /Wk 1
3RD UPDATE, Friday AM, Thanksgiving Day grosses: As is tradition on Thanksgiving Day, turnstiles slow down with most titles seeing slides from their Wednesday figures. But not MGM/New Line’s Creed from Warner Bros. Among the new titles, Creed posted a 7% gain over Wednesday in third place with $6.46M, bringing its two day cume to $12.5M. Industry B.O. analysts are revising their projections for Creed‘s five-day haul, now foreseeing $42M-$44M. MGM, WB and Ratpac co-financed this $37M-$38M Rocky spinoff, and out of the three Thanksgiving wide entries, WB spent the most on TV ads, $27.1M, per iSpot.TV, with most of the promos running during NFL, MLB World Series and NBA sporting events. As we reported yesterday, both Creed and Disney/Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur are being powered by A CinemaScores and glowing reviews this week.
Black Friday is one of the biggest moviegoing days of the year, so any downturn yesterday will be more than made up for today. And it’s one of those moviegoing-begets-moviegoing time frames, when trailers drop before huge audiences at the multiplex, encouraging audiences to come back to the movies down the road. With less than four weeks until the debut of Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens, the film’s campaign was being pumped to its capacity. It appeared as though the trailer was playing every half hour during the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade on NBC. Off of 325 airings, iSpot.TV reports that $8.9M has been spent already on Force Awakens TV spots through yesterday, with $3.7M of the spend running during NFL games.
Katniss is, of course, still on top. She took in $10.4M yesterday, off 25% from Wednesday with a running cume of $146.7M. Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay-Part 2 will continue to hold first place until Sunday, even over FSS, with a revised industry projection of $75M-$78M. Global B.O. for MJ2 stands at $338M.
The Good Dinosaur saw a 33% decline on Thanksgiving with $6.56M in second place, bringing its total B.O. over two days to $16.37M. It’s going to pop today and Saturday thanks to family matinees. Current industry forecast for the animated film directed by Peter Sohn is $57M-$59M over five days. The second Pixar film of the year cost $200M before P&A, with TV ads currently amounting to $22.1M from August 1 through yesterday. Among those animated titles playing over the five-day Thanksgiving frame, The Good Dinosaur will rank above the $50.6M made by Warner Bros.’ 2006 Happy Feet, and below such Disney titans Frozen ($93.6M five-day) and Toy Story 2 ($80.1M five-day).
The Frankenstein monster scared villagers away in Mary Shelley’s novel and 20th Century Fox’s Victor Frankenstein is doing the same to moviegoers. The film continued to post under seven-digit daily grosses in its second day at the box office, falling 23% from Wednesday with $470K at 2,796 hubs. It ranked No. 12 on Thanksgiving, getting beat by Opening Road’s Spotlight ($578K at 897 venues, five-day at $5.1M, $7.8M total B.O.) and Fox Searchlight’s Brooklyn ($486K at 590 theaters, five-day at $4.37M, total B.O. $3.5M) in slots No. 10 and 11. To date, Victor Frankenstein has made $1.08M. It cost a reported $40M before P&A, and iSpot.TV lists Fox’s U.S. TV ad spend at $10.6M, with most of that being spent on male-demo shows like The Walking Dead, South Park, NFL Football and NBA Basketball.
In the specialty realm, Weinstein Co.’s Carol slipped 17% over Wednesday with $33K and a week’s cume of $385K. That figure currently paces behind the first week of TWC’s The Imitation Game ($611K) and The King’s Speech ($483K), h0wever, this film will be in limited release for a while to pull in the bulk of holiday moviegoers after SAG and Golden Globe nominations are announced mid-December.
Universal’s Legend made $54K at 40 theaters yesterday, off 19% with a not as potent per theater as Carol. Total domestic cume to date for the British gangster film is $616K, but it has brought in $36M from 26 overseas markets.
The rest of the Thanksgiving Day B.O. unfolded as follows: No. 4 Sony/MGM/Eon’s Spectre $2.68M (+1%), five-day: $16M-$18M cume: $163.2M; No. 5 Sony’s The Night Before $1.699M (-1%), 5-day: $10M-$12M, cume to date: $15.9M; No. 6 20th Century Fox’s The Peanuts Movie $1.44M (-42%), five-day: $12M-$14.5M, cume to date: $107M; No. 7 CBS’ Love the Coopers $756K (+50%), five-day: $4.9M, cume: $17.4M, No. 8 STX/IM Global’s The Secret In Their Eyes $745K (+3%), five-day: $4.9M, cume: $9.5M.
2ND UPDATE, Thursday 7:57AM Wednesday grosses: Neither a Brontosaurus, nor boxer Adonis Creed could push Katniss from her No. 1 perch at the box office, as Liongate’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 owned the Wednesday before Thanksgiving with $13.8M at 4,175 theaters, +21% over Tuesday for a running cume of $136.3M. MJ1 made $14.6M on Thanksgiving eve a year ago. This is according to industry estimates this morning; many studios have yet to report. MJ2 paces behind MJ1 by 16% or $21..3M. At this point in time, some are predicting that over the five-day holiday, MJ2 could do $78M-$80M, which would put it below Catching Fire‘s $109.9M (which holds the Thanksgiving spread record) and MJ1‘s $82.7M. Overseas MJ2 is at $183M with a huge global take of $320M.
Walt Disney/Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur is off to a decent start with an A CinemaScore and a No. 2 Wednesday gross of $9.8M at 3,749 venues. That’s not as high as their animated princess pics – read: Frozen‘s Thanksgiving eve wide opening of $15.2M and Tangled‘s $11.9M, but then again this film skews more boy and this dinosaur isn’t wearing a tiara and a gown. A great start nonetheless, which will take Good Dinosaur to a $58M-62M five-day. While Good Dinosaur‘s budget is at an estimated $200M, these animated films play and play during the holiday season, so a 4x multiple is conceivable. Good Dinosaur has an 81% Rotten Tomatoes score which is more than good. Moms lead the charge to see it, with females repping 56% of the audience while men numbered 44%. The Under 18 (43%) and 25 (54%) demos both graded the film an A+. A majority of the theatergoers at 70% came out because it’s a Pixar animated title, the second this year after June’s Inside Out.
MGM/New Line in association with Warner Bros’ Creed earned an A CinemaScore title belt from audiences last night and $6M at 3,284 playdates in third place. Current industry projections over five-days are at $39M-$42M which will be higher than where Warner Bros. was expecting the film. Creed also has extra muscle with a 92% fresh Rotten Tomatoes score, which will definitely get the adults out there. The Ryan Coogler-directed film carries a $37M-$38M production cost. Creed drew 66% males with 62% over 25. 53% bought tickets because they’re Rocky fans while 39% turned up because they like Sylvester Stallone, who has a supporting turn in this film.
20th Century Fox’s Victor Frankenstein is not off to a good start per industry estimates with $620K at 2,737 in 9th yesterday; that’s a per theater of $227. The Daniel Radcliffe and James McAvoy film earned a bloody C CinemaScore, and is currently estimated to take in $3M-$3.7M over the five-day frame. Production cost before P&A is at an estimated $40M. Older males were the dominant crowd at this title at 60% for both 25 and up and the gender; the Radcliffe fangirls are not out in droves here. 46% responded that they watched Victor Frankenstein for the type of film that is, while 45% came out for the lead actors and 43% for the subject matter. The under 25 and 18ers gave it a B+.
1st UPDATE, Tuesday AM: ‘Creed’, ‘Good Dinosaur’ Rally At Tuesday Previews
Fox had better luck with The Peanuts Movie which slotted fifth with an estimated $2.5M, +12% from yesterday with a cume of $105.6M. The Blue Sky Animation title should rake in $16M-$17M over five days, bringing its total through four weekends to $120M. Fox is reporting The Martian in 10th place with $5K less than Victor Frankenstein —$615K at 1,407 theaters — with a total to date of $214.7M.
MGM/Eon/Sony’s Spectre targeted an estimated $2.66M yesterday in No. 4, +22% at 2,940 runs. Heading into the holiday, 007 shedded 719 screens as the competition heats up. Cume for Spectre is at $160.7M, which is trailing Skyfall at the same point in time by 29%. By Thanksgiving eve that film had bagged $227.16M. By Sunday, Spectre is projected to be at $176M. Sony also owned 6th with the Seth Rogen-Anthony Mackie-Joseph Gordon-Levitt R-rated comedy The Night Before which made $1.7M, +9% on its way to a five-day holiday run of $11.5M-$12.5M. Cume by Sunday should stand at $24.5M.
STX/IM Global’s The Secret In Their Eyes declined an estimated 9% from Tuesday with $729K. Domestic ticket sales for the Julia Roberts-Nicole Kidman remake of the foreign film Oscar winner is $8.8M.
At 897 locations, Open Road’s Spotlight holds onto 8th place in its third week with $653K, +41% from Tuesday with a running cume of $7.27M.
Fox Searchlight’s Brooklyn is currently hanging around in 11th place, but could fight its way into the top 10 by the end of the weekend. Yesterday, the John Crowley-directed movie grossed $530K at 824 theaters, and industry projections put it at $3.9M for FSS and $5M for the weekend.
Universal’s Legend which expanded to 40 theaters brought in $67K yesterday, up close to five fold over Tuesday. It’s on course to make $485K over FSS, a 5-day of $607K and a 10-day cume of $717K.
Weinstein Co.’s Carol made $40K yesterday, up a huge 32% at four NY and LA hubs bringing its six day cume to $352K. The Todd Haynes-directed movie is looking at an estimated $275K FSS, 5-day of $357K and a 10-day run of $670K.