7TH UPDATE, Monday AM: Rampage only dropped 26% on Sunday to bring its debut opening weekend up to $35.7 million, roughly $1M above what was estimated for the weekend. The Dwayne Johnson film distributed by New Line/Warner Bros stomped to the top of the box office chart Saturday and held its ground throughout the rest of the weekend. More to come later today.
6TH UPDATE, Sunday AM after Saturday 11:54 PM post: The tables have turned and now New Line/Warner Bros’ Rampage is stealing No. 1 away from A Quiet Place with a $34.5M opening following a super family-fueled Saturday of $13.9M, up 20% over Friday. Global opening here for the Dwayne Johnson-director Brad Peyton-Flynn Picture Company team-up is $148.6M.
That’s not to say that the John Krasinski Paramount movie didn’t do well, or that it slowed significantly. A Quiet Place also saw a surge in Saturday business, up 29% over Friday with $13.5M, taking its second weekend to $32.6M, a wonderful 35% ease, with a 10-day total of $99.6M.
Here’s how the top films are looking per studio-reported figures Sunday:
So, tracking thought Rampage was going to be No. 1 heading into the weekend, then Friday showed A Quiet Place winning — what’s going on?
Essentially, Friday the 13th business skewed heavily in favor A Quiet Place, with many calling the weekend in the pic’s favor.
Meanwhile families turned up at matinees and continued to show up in the evening for Rampage. It’s a popcorn movie that once people are in theater and have a fun time, they leave and pass the good word on. All of this is backed up by Rampage‘s A- CinemaScore (the same as Dwayne Johnson’s Central Intelligence, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and his previous team-up with director Brad Peyton, San Andreas) plus parents and kids are giving the pic respectively a 90% and 86% score. Another halo effect with Rampage is that Johnson pulls in a multicultural audience with 21% Hispanic, 19% African American, 14% Asian and 43% Caucasian, not to mention there’s a good deal of walk-up business going on here.
Johnson’s films are known to be sleepers, and his PG-13 action comedy Central Intelligence off its positive CinemaScore saw a 3.5x for a final domestic of $127.4M. That would be a nice stateside result for Rampage, but the problem ahead is the final weekend of the month when Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Infinity War opens and takes $220M+ out of the market. Still, Rampage would only be the second popcorn, all-family movie on the marquee until mid-May. Warner Bros. was wise to get ahead of Avengers. Nonetheless, even though Rampage resuscitated for a No. 1 weekend win, the movie will need foreign to do some lifting to profit off its estimated $120M production cost + $140M P&A.
“Dwayne Johnson is a closer. His fans follow him on such an aggressive way on social media and he inspires and excites them to get them to see his movies,” said Warner Bros. president of domestic distribution Jeff Goldstein, “He’s a marketing machine, he’s own brand and this was a coordinated effort throughout our whole company.”
Social media giant Johnson was surprising crowds at the AMC Burbank theatre today; it’s the second highest-grossing venue for Rampage this weekend. Rampage played evenly across the country, from small to big towns.
Universal/Blumhouse’s Truth or Dare is still on target for a 3rd place opening of $19M after a $6.8M Saturday that’s -18% from Friday, which is the front-loaded nature for most horror movies. Even though this is lower than Happy Death Day‘s $26M start, Truth or Dare was battling for young females with A Quiet Place. Nonetheless a solid start for this $5M budgeted pic. Even if the pic does a 2x multiple stateside, greater riches are in store for Blumhouse if Uni gets Truth or Dare past $100M worldwide.
RelishMix notes that Pretty Little Liars star Lucy Hale was key here for propelling the pic with her social media following 34.1M; Close to 60% under 25 bought tickets led by females under 25 at 34%. The social media monitor also notes that fans are stoked by The Flash‘s Violett Beane as well in addition to the contorted face that’s been seen in trailers and stills. “It’s creeping them out” says RelishMix, “the distorted face of the co-stars has definitely found the target audience.”
Uni launched “Truth or Dare Tuesdays” in mid-March with film content on Hale’s well-followed social channels every Tuesday through release. TV spots targeted the core audience of younger females during the premieres of the Grey’s Anatomy spin-off Station 19 and Empire, along with high profile spots during The Voice, Riverdale and the airing of Bruno Mars Live at The Apollo. A large college screening program spanned 50 campuses across the country complemented by a custom interactive Snapchat lens geo-targeted to college campuses. This generated 47M+ impressions and was seen by 18M unique Snapchat users. The January trailer generated 75M views around the world.
Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s Ready Player One drew $5M on Saturday, +67% for an $11.2M third weekend, -54%, and a $114.6M running domestic total. Rampage actually shared some Imax screens with RPO with the Johnson monster pic earning $2.8M at 397 auditoriums.
Universal’s Blockers is looking at 5th place with $10.3M, -50%, in its second go-round with a 10-day total of $36.9M.
Isle of Dogs still a crossover success for Fox Searchlight from the arthouse to the multiplex with a $5M wide weekend. The Wes Anderson-directed title earned an A from CinemaScore after two weekends of polling with 54% under 35, and 52% male. PostTrak results are showing the same.
Bleecker Street’s Beirut earned $1.65M at 755 locales after a Wednesday debut with $2M through five days.
Fun Academy’s animated feature Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero no bow wow with an estimated $1M at 1,633 coming in outside the top 10.
4th Update, Saturday AM: With updated chart Paramount/Platinum Dunes’ A Quiet Place is still holding its volume for a No. 1 weekend win, now at $34.3M. But New Line/Warner Bros.’ Rampage has regained strength from where we saw it on Friday afternoon, with a first day of $11.54M (including $2.4M previews) and a revised opening of $32.3M. The Dwayne Johnson movie gets an A- CinemaScore and is a hit with parents, who gave it a 90%, with kids enjoying it at 86%, per industry exits today. That great buzz could fuel some great matinees for Rampage, but A Quiet Place, especially with the Friday the 13th crowd, has the upper hand over three-days.
Here’s how the weekend’s top pics are looking, per industry estimates:
With an estimated $120M production cost and $140M estimated global P&A, per our sources, it’s still questionable whether Rampage breaks even at this point in time. A $40M debut gave some film financiers confidence that once worldwide was counted, especially around a similar level to the previous Johnson-Brad Peyton combo San Andreas ($473.9M), that Rampage could profit. San Andreas generated $88.1M after all revenue streams. But know that despite the strong first day in China for Rampage of $15.7M, and possible weekend opening of $60M, the Middle Kingdom alone is never enough to bail a movie out, especially with that 25-27% rental. China repped 22% of San Andreas’ box office.
Overall, Friday was a big moviegoing day for women young and old: Friday night exit polls showed A Quiet Place leaning toward 52% females, with those women under 25 the strongest demo at 32%. Universal/Blumhouse’s Truth or Dare was also strong with women under 25 at 34% and females at 59% overall. The Lucy Hale feature, which is over-indexing with a $19.68M weekend off a $8.3M Friday the 13th, earned a B- CinemaScore, which is slightly lower than the fall’s Happy Death Day. That Blumhouse title opened to $26M, did a 2x multiple stateside for $55.6M, and had a bigger worldwide of $122.6M off a $4.8M budget. Truth or Dare‘s budget was in the same range. At 16% Rotten, it wasn’t a popular title with the critics.
Also big with the ladies: Rampage, which drew 30% women over 25, its second-biggest demo behind M25+ at 32%. Pic has the same RT score as San Andreas of 50%. Warner Bros. moved Rampage up a week after Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Infinity War took over the last weekend of the month. It was a wise move considering the studio originally wanted (and needed) a two-week window to make money.
Fox Searchlight’s Isle of Dogs from Wes Anderson broke wide at 1,939 theaters for a fourth weekend of $4.8M. Audiences love it at 88%, especially younger guys (21%), with a 91% score. M25+ (32%) and F25+ (28%) are driving business. The stop-motion animated pic is pacing behind Anderson’s previous hit Grand Budapest Hotel by -24%. That movie ended its run with $59.3M.
Those few families who showed up to Fun Academy’s Sgt. Stubby An American Hero actually enjoyed it, giving the indie pic a solid A CinemaScore. However, the Helena Bonham Carter-Logan Lerman-voiced animated canine pic is only set to make $270K on Friday, $1M for the weekend.
At 755 theaters, Bleecker Street’s Sundance premiere Beirut is looking at $1.5M for the weekend. Sony Classics’ Chloe Zhao Cannes title from last May, The Rider, finally opened at three New York and Los Angeles locations for a $11.8K per theater and estimated $36K weekend.
2nd Update: Paramount’s A Quiet Place continues to amaze, with a second estimated weekend off mid-days of $33M after a $10M Friday. If that holds up, it will take the John Krasinski horror movie to $100M stateside.
Not doing so well: Dwayne Johnson’s Rampage, which industry mid-days show also at $10M, but slipping with a $27M-$28M start, well below its anticipated tracking of mid $30Ms. Hopefully, this improves over the weekend. Who also gets hurt here? Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s Ready Player One, which had all those Imax theaters and now has to hand them over to Rampage. Ready Player One will earn an estimated $10.75M third weekend, -56% for a running total of $114.1M by Sunday.
But it’s not A Quiet Place getting in Rampage‘s way, but Universal/Blumhouse’s Truth or Dare, which is stealing young females away with a $7.5M Friday and a third place, over-indexed start of $17.7M-$18M. You would think that demo would be at A Quiet Place, but they’re headed to Truth or Dare. It’s the guys who are making A Quiet Place work per our sources.
Uni’s Blockers is looking at $2.5M in its second Friday and $9.5M for weekend 2 at this early time which is -54% for a $36.1M ten-day total by Sunday.
Fun Academy’s Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero is wounded as expected with a $500K opening day and $1.8M estimated weekend.
1st Update, 7:18AM: New Line/Warner Bros’ Rampage drew $2.4M last night in Thursday previews, a figure that’s under the $3.1M made by Dwayne Johnson’s previous title with San Andreas director Brad Peyton and producer Beau Flynn, but ahead of the Rock’s Kevin Hart combo Central Intelligence, which made $1.84M on Thursday before a $12.99M Friday and $35.5M opening. Because of Star Wars: The Last Jedi in the marketplace in the pre-Christmas frame, there weren’t any Tuesday previews for Johnson’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, though a special Amazon Prime sneak program day racked up $1.86M five days before the movie’s opening (Jumanji opened on a Wednesday).
We hear that last night’s audience was comprised of a younger audience, even though it was a school night. Twelve-to 16-year olds are the film’s biggest and most urgent read on tracking. Previews began at 7PM.
Rampage is Johnson’s third title with Peyton after San Andreas and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island. Rampage is inspired by the 1980s video game. San Andreas was a nice summer pop outside the typical franchises three years ago, making $54.5M and legging out to $155M stateside, $474M worldwide.
Rampage is expected to top the chart with a mid $30M-$40M take for the weekend, ahead of last weekend’s surprise horror/thriller champ A Quiet Place which is ending the week with $67M and could post a second weekend in the low $30Ms which would send it past $100M.
Warner Bros. also fared quite well with the second week of its Village Roadshow co-production Ready Player One which grossed $31.5M sending it to $103.4M.
Universal/Blumhouse’s PG-13 horror title Truth or Dare made $750K last night at 2,400 locations that started at 7PM. The Jeff Wadlow-directed movie is expected to make a three-day in the mid teens. Last weekend Uni broke the R-rated raunchy comedy curse with Blockers. That Kay Cannon-directed movie ended the week with $26.6M in third place and is looking at $12M-$14M in weekend two.
Bleecker Street opened the Jon Hamm-Rosamund Pike CIA operative movie Beirut on Wednesday at 710 locations and it’s up to $372K.
The weekend’s third wide release, the animated pic Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero from Fun Academy is expected to register in the low single digits.