FINAL UPDATE, TUESDAY, 4:23 PM: This morning saw director Ted Melfi’s get a nice boost on the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday with this wisely timed rollout of what is now being seen nationwide by both sides of the equation as a patriotic film. 2oth Century Fox and Chernin Entertainment’s Hidden Figures and Lionsgate/Black Label Media’s musical La La Land, which are vying for Best Picture Oscar nominations, are both expected to ultimately end up above the $100 million mark domestically at the box office, somewhere in the range of $115M-$120M. Both had very different (and deftly handled) rollout patterns given the particular elements of the film. Another commonality — audiences and critics love both films. Oscar noms come out on January 24 so expect box office boosts for all films nominated.
Disney/Lucasfilm’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story overall lost almost 1,000 theaters this weekend (and 150 Imax screens, specifically, to La La Land) in its fifth frame of play as a bevy of adult-targeted films just swarmed into the market either by expansions, holdovers or those that opened, which caused cannibalization between those films. Still, it got to the magic $500M+ number domestically.
Other films — including Patriots Day which (like Hidden Figures) garnered one of those rare A+ CinemaScores — were not so lucky. To read about those and our analysis of why, scroll past the following final Top 10 chart.
Next weekend sees three more films — Blumhouse’s psychological thriller Split, Paramount’s action sequel xXx: Return Of Xander Cage and The Weinstein Company’s Michael Keaton-starring The Founder — entering an already crowded market.
1.) Hidden Figures (Fox) 3,286 theaters (+815) / 3-day: $20.8M / 3-day per screen average: $6,346 / 4-day: $27.5M / 4-day per screen: $8,371 / Total: $61.8M / Wk 4
2.) Sing (ILL/UNI), 3,693 theaters (-262) / 3-day cume: $14.2M / 3-day per screen: $3,856 / 4-day: $19M / 4-day per screen: $5,152 / Total: $238.2M / Wk 4
3.) La La Land (Lionsgate) 1,848 (+333) / 3-day: $14.5M / 3-day per screen: $7,864 / 4-day: $17.7M / 4-day per screen: $9,588 / Total: $77M+ / Wk 6
4.) Rogue One (DIS), 3,162 theaters (-995) / 3-day cume: $13.4M / 3-day per screen: $4,259 / 4-day: $16.8M / 4-day per screen: $5,315 / Total: $501.89M / Wk 5
5.) The Bye Bye Man (STX) 2,220 theaters / 3-day: $13.5M / 3-day per screen: $6,082 / 4-day: $15.2M / 4-day per screen: $6.849 / Total cume: $15.2M / Wk 1
6.) Monster Trucks (PAR) 3,119 theaters / 3-day: $10.9M / 3-day per screen: $3,511 / 4-day: $14.1M / 4-day per screen: $4,544 / Total: $14.1M / Wk 1
7.) Patriot’s Day (CBS/LG), 3,120 theaters (+3,113) / 3-day: $11.6M / 3-day per screen: $3,722 / 4-day: $13.7M / 4-day per screen: $4,408 / Total: $14.67M / Wk 4
8.) Sleepless (OR) 1,803 theaters / 3-day: $8.3M / 3-day per screen: $4,628 / 4-day: $9.7M / 4-day per screen: $5,419 / Total: $9.7M / Wk 1
9.) Underworld: Blood Wars (Sony) 3,070 theaters / 3-day: $6.2M (-55%) / 3-day per screen: $2,022 / 4-day: $7.2M / 4-day per screen: $2,366 / Total: $25.3M / Wk 2
10.) Passengers (Sony) 2,447 theaters (-953) / 3-day: $5.3M / 3-day per screen: $2,185 / 4-day: $6.49M / 4-day per screen: $2,653 / Total: $90.8M / Wk 4
11). Moana (DIS) 1,847 theaters (-702) / 3-day: $4.3M / 3-day per screen: $2,334 / 4-day $6.1M / 4-day per screen: $3,305 / Total: $233.4M / Wk 8
12.) Live by Night (WB), 2,822 theaters (+2,818) / 3-day: $5.1M / 3-day per: $1,809 / 4-day: $6M / 4-day per screen: $2,127 / Total: $6.18M / Wk 4
Anita Busch compiled Tuesday PM’s report.
7th WRITETHRU, Tuesday AM: Hidden Figures had a phenomenal Monday for Fox and Chernin Entertainment, dropping only about 4% Sunday from Monday to push its four-day gross to an estimated $27.4M. Disney/Lucasfilm’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story just surpassed $500M domestically after a four-day tally of roughly $16.6M, estimates show. Also reaping the benefit of yesterday’s push into theaters was Universal and Illumination Entertainment’s Sing, which dropped a mere 3% Sun. to Mon. to end its four-day gross with the No. 2 spot and $19M+; it’s cume sits at 238.4M. Stay tuned for the full Top Ten chart, including per screen averages, later today.
Anita Busch compiled Tuesday AM’s report.
6th WRITETHRU, Monday AM with updated chart, figures and analysis: Never before in recent memory have so many movies bombed in a given weekend at the box office. With Monster Trucks, Sleepless, Silence and Live By Night dead, and Patriots Day underperforming, this MLK weekend blows away the disasters seen during the October 23-25 weekend of 2015 when four titles tanked: The Last Witch Hunter, Jem And The Holograms, Rock The Kasbah and Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension.
In prior MLK weekends, there’s typically been one big tentpole that rules them all, i.e. American Sniper, Lone Survivor or Ride Along. But this year, the holiday weekend has turned into a dumping ground for adult-scale movies sans awards traction, plus some poor counter-programming plays. All in, it’s largely a cannibalistic marketplace with six wide entries, three of them that busted wide.
Some lackluster films like Sleepless and Monster Trucks were scheduled here because this is the last big moviegoing weekend before Presidents Day, when studios can pull the most amount of dollars out of moviegoers’ pockets.
On the other hand, movies hoping to be awards contenders are scheduled here because it’s about a week-and-a-half before Oscar noms, and the most ideal distribution plan might be to play into that potential heat. But for those titles, if you haven’t accumulated awards-season goodwill or great reviews already, you’re just dead. And even sadder is that there are a few passion projects here like Ben Affleck’s Live By Night, Martin Scorsese’s Silence, and Peter Berg’s Patriots Day, which aren’t finding big audiences.
An unfortunate outcome of this multi-release onslaught for the majors is that those holdovers which are posting decent numbers are kicked out of the multiplex as new titles comes down the pike. And even if the new title is just a flash-in-the-pan two-week disaster run (Monster Trucks, Live by Night), theater chains will still book them. For example, Why Him? was -31% last weekend, but exhibitors dumped 927 theaters this weekend, sending its currently theater count to 1,977 (this weekend the James Franco-Bryan Cranston comedy makes $3,3M over FSS, -52%).
In another bad case of attrition, Paramount’s Fences, in the wake of winning a best supporting actress Golden Globe for Viola Davis, saw a 1,026 reduction in its theater count from 2,368 to 1,342 (repping a 44% decline with $2.7M FSS in its fifth weekend and a running total of $46.5M. Fences’ reduction is due to various things according to those distribution sources with drill-down access to competitive theatrical data: Approximately 800 sites made less than $1K each last weekend, Hidden Figures was pulling away a substantial crowd, and exhibition was swayed to book the new titles, rather than continue to make space for the holdovers (Par had two wide releases this weekend – Silence and Monster Trucks).
Overall, according to ComScore, total 3-day tickets sales for the MLK holiday are at an estimated $148M, -13% from the same frame a year ago.
So, one by one, let’s go through some of this weekend’s openers and most notable expansions and see what’s faring well and what’s not:
Hidden Figures (Fox) It’s an easy No. 1 win of $25.9M to $26M+ over four-days, with the three-day take about down a mere -9% from its $22.8M wide break a week ago. The film is playing to all audiences with the makeup being 47% Caucasian, 37% African American and 10% Hispanic. On Saturday, the Taraji P. Henson-Octavia Spencer-Janelle Monae movie was up +54% over Friday; an amazing result as some saw the movie only moving up 30%. It’s a no-brainer why this film is excelling: A+ CinemaScore, 93% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes rating, and a string of recent noms including best PGA feature, WGA adapted screen, SAG best ensemble and supporting actress for Octavia Spencer. Fox further played into the spirit of MLK weekend by taking Hidden Figures even wider than last weekend with 815 more runs for a total of 3,286. This picture is clearly on its way to a $100M take when all is said and done.
Add to it that it had an ideal distribution schedule, rolling out slowly, building momentum and finding the right weekend in which to go wide — all coming together to catch heat right as Academy voters were putting in their ballots — and they like to see a winner at the box office. Weekend to weekend, the 9% drop is unheard of for films that have opened to $20M or more. Kudos to Fox’s distribution team, led by Fox’s President of domestic distribution Chris Aronson.
Most of the markets over-indexed, we’re told, and the only one that under-indexed was Miami where the market is getting inundated with daily front-page news and local network reports about the Ft. Lauderdale airport shooting.
We know behind the scenes that he Arnoson had to sell everyone on putting the film out in 25 theaters – a risky move, but not when you know that you have the goods and this picture was doing extremely test screenings.
“It’s gratifying to have film like this that works on so many levels,” said Aronson. “People are so moved by this picture. We are hearing anecdotal stories about people applauding in theaters. This movie entertains, it educates and it’s life affirming. The cast that Ted Melfi gathered together to tell this story were so good. And it’s a story that no one knew about and it’s about time it came out.”
Disney/Lucasfilm’s Rogue One is finally showing signs that it’s human as it dips from No. 2 last weekend to No. 4 with $17.1M over four days and a B.O. benchmark as the 7th highest grossing film at the domestic B.O. with $502.2M. The movie will need to click past The Dark Knight‘s $534.9M to become the sixth highest title ever on the chart. Sing takes 2nd with $19M to $20M in the No. 2 spot over 4-days sending its running total to $238.3M to $239M. The animated feature has remained quite resilient over the last four weeks atop the charts–especially on a crowded weekend like this. Sing is approximately $12.5M from overtaking the domestic take of Illumination’s Despicable Me.
La La Land: Lionsgate’s original musical is looking at its highest weekend in its sixth frame run of between $17.5M and $17.8M in third place in four-day tallies to bring home a total cume of $77M+. While Patriots Day isn’t anything to wave a flag about, La La Land is the more popular choice with its collection of seven Golden Globes (it swept the awards show), SAG noms for leads Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling, DGA and WGA noms for Damien Chazelle, and a PGA best feature nod. Lionsgate is wisely expanding right into and capitalizing on this heat, widening its theater count, but not too wide, from 1,515 sites to 1,848. This is how The Weinstein Co. titles like Silver Linings Playbook and The King’s Speech reached greater heights during their Oscar runs: By platforming the titles, not over-saturating them, so that there’s lingering demand around the country.
The whole idea was not to peak too early with Oscar voters and to build anticipation for the film which launched at the Venice Film Festival to critical acclaim and then gathered more and more accolades as it went to other festivals like Telluride and Toronto. “When we saw the film, we knew we didn’t want to launch it as a wide release because we wanted to build momentum. We knew that once the critics and the audiences saw the film, positive word-of-mouth would spread,” said Lionsgate’s president of domestic theatrical distribution, David Spitz. “Next weekend, we will add a handful more runs.”
Across the country, exhibitors have been asking for the movie since it logged that high per screen average on Dec. 9. The big challenge for Lionsgate’s distribution team, was to hold it back to do the right thing for the film so it could cut through the clutter and rise above to play across the nation. With a $176,221 per screen average on five screens that weekend, La La Land grabbed not only the highest per screen of the year for platformed release but also was the second-highest per screen for a limited release only behind Fox Searchlight’s phenom The Grand Budapest Hotel.
They rolled out from 5 screens to 200 screens the following week and then expanded over Christmas to 741 locales and then continued to add theaters after that. There is no good comp for La La Land so how Lionsgate handled this movie’s rollout was almost as original as the film itself.
In very early PostTrak polls for La La Land (this data has likely changed with the expansion), older females were leading the way to the Stone-Gosling combo at 64% females, 75% over 25 with a total positive score of 81% (either excellent or very good). 93% of the audience said they would recommend the film to a friend, indicative of the pic’s word of mouth engine. Forty-four percent came because they like musicals onscreen, while 28% were Gosling fans and 24% were Stone fans.
The Bye Bye Man‘s opening is now projected higher at $15.3M in 5th after a Friday of $5.4M. Here’s the true win: While a number of big budget films opened this weekend with big P&As, they fell under their tracking. But Bye Bye Man bested its $10M-$11M projection. STX identified its audience, created a campaign that spoke to them, and delivered something they wanted with a moderately priced and fun moviegoing experience.
Rivals acknowledge how well Bye Bye Man is over-performing (taking in $13.5M for the three-day), with insiders swearing that the pic’s production cost is a thrifty $7.4M before P&A. Should these figures hold up, I understand per a rival source that Bye Bye is bound to be in the black. Some attribute this goosed opening to the Friday the 13th release date, which some fans on social have observed per RelishMix. “Convo is pretty typical for a horror film,” said the social monitor, with Bye Bye’s universe at a moderate 18.6M across Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube views. By comparison, that universe size is on par with an indie like The Boy (23M) but trails a Blumhouse/Universal title Ouija 2 (82M). The Stacy Title movie gets a C CinemaScore which isn’t great for a horror movie; anything in the B range would be significantly better. STX gets their young female audience in bulk here at 56% females, 58% under 25.
Patriots Day (CBS/Lionsgate) With a four-day of $13.6M in 6th after a larger than expected decline yesterday, the collaboration of director Peter Berg and star Mark Wahlberg follows their lackluster Deepwater Horizon ($20.2M opening, $61.4M) and is nothing to boast about. Saturday was only up 6% while most other movies in the top ten made double digit percent gains or more. It’s an upset considering that many box office analysts thought this movie had a shot at No. 1 with a $20M-plus four-day juiced by some of the flyover state American Sniper crowd (through I hear NRG had Patriots Day much lower between $16M-$18M in its pre-weekend forecasts). And that A+ CinemaScore, the second this year after Hidden Figures, isn’t doing any daily word of mouth wonders. That grade carries a 4.8 multiple off 3-day openings which means Patriots Day could get around $40M+.
Two things are crimping the movie: The pic has had zero awards momentum with key orgs (except for being one of the National Board of Review’s top titles), and industry insiders feel as though audiences aren’t ready to relive the tragedy that occurred at the Boston Marathon less than four years ago, despite the fact that the film was sold on its human emotional elements. Berg acknowledged this to New York Times New England Bureau chief Katharine Q. Seelye; essentially critics in Boston are more critical of this movie than those in other parts of the country. (In its limited run though, analysts say the pic’s best grosses were in Beantown). Says Seelye in her piece, “But the hometown crowd is a tougher sell. They know the real events and people in granular detail. Some are offended that Saunders (Wahlberg’s character) is both made up and, implausibly, present at every key development.”
There are high stakes whenever these real-life national tragedies are painted on the screen. World Trade Center and United 93 were released five years following 9/11, with varying results. Directed by Oliver Stone, World Trade Center opened to $18.7M and ended at $70.3M stateside (that’s when Nicolas Cage opened movies), however, no one wanted to relive United 93 which opened to $11.5M FSS and finaled stateside with $31.5M.
One thing that should be mentioned about Patriots Day is that it may not see as much red ink as Deepwater because it cost $40M after incentives, 63% less than that $110M action-drama before P&A. Most of the media spend here comes from spots on CBS. Even with all that value added, Patriots Day still trails the spends by Live By Night and Monster Trucks, says one-well-placed film media buyer.
Except for the 35-49 crowd who gave Patriots Day an A, the movie earned an A+ in every category. Eighty-four percent of the audience came out for the subject matter (A+), while 30% bought tickets because they’re Wahlberg fans (A+). We’ll see if all these good grades impacts ticket sales as the weekend goes on. Overall, 84% over 25 turned up, 53% males.
Reports RelishMix, “Like Deepwater, what’s notable is simply how controversial these pictures are. There are numerous Facebook posts from USA Today and other reputable sources asking about the fact checking, the attention to detail and whether this story needed to be told this way.”
Monster Trucks Before Paramount even released this movie, Viacom wrote it off at $115M. According to accounting rules, once a film starts accruing debt, it can be registered in the red in the books, especially when revenue isn’t going to come. Given that, a studio doesn’t throw good money after bad money when it comes to damaged goods, and Paramount saw well in advance that trucks do not have the same impact as Transformers at the box office.
Hence, if by some reason Monster Trucks became a complete hit this weekend, that would stir a slew of Wall Street observers to say “Hey!”. That was never going to happen, so here Monster Trucks sits parked within its tracking range of $12M-$14M with $14.6M estimate over four-days in 7th (Paramount thinks it will kick to $15M today). Pic gets an A CinemaScore tonight; which, again like Patriots Day, has a lot to do with what regions of the country this movie was polled in.
Prior to the weekend, RelishMix reports, “Monster Trucks is reaching its target audience of parents with small children, many of whom are saying how excited their son will be to see this movie in theaters. While convo is light in its volume compared to other family animated movies, overall, it’s positive. However, it’s interesting to see the audience discussing the $125M budget for Monster Trucks, as if they are suspicious that such an expensive endeavor doesn’t have a more recognizable cast and/or a more favorable release date. The Trucks convo is another indicator of how smart today’s audience is when it comes to ultimately buying tickets.”
CinemaScore shows dads with their sons buying tickets at 53% males, 55% under 18.
Sleepless (Open Road) If there was an attempt to pull in the African American audience with this title, well that doesn’t make any sense when there’s a crowdpleaser like Hidden Figures in the market. Jamie Foxx plays a guy who takes justice into his own hands when his family has been wronged. It just screams Law Abiding Citizen all over again ($21M opening, $73.3M), and of course, moviegoers know this and that’s why only some of them spent an estimated $9.5M over four-days on this $30M production this weekend. (Open Road thinks it will hold stronger today — and it could be right — and come in with a four-day total of $9.89M) That puts it at 8th. Rivals have had it consistently throughout the weekend at around $9.5M-$9.7M over FSSM. On a three-day basis of $8.1M, this is Foxx’s lowest opening of the last 10 years. One distribution czar screamed Friday, “If the whole point of Open Road is to supply its investors AMC and Regal with a steady supply of titles throughout the sleepy points of the year, then why are they releasing this movie during one of the most crowded weekends ever?!” Sleepless gets a B+ CinemaScore, but looks worse on PostTrak with a 77% total positive score (and that org polls throughout the entire weekend).
Live By Night (WB) At a reported $65M, Ben Affleck’s feature adaptation of Dennis Lehane’s novel set around a Boston gangster during Prohibition, is more expensive than Argo which cost $44.5M. At $5.7M over four days it’s outside the Top 10 at No. 12. (Warner Bros. think it can end the weekend with $6.1M). And it took a larger than expected drop yesterday. With $5.1M over three days, the only good news here is that the movie isn’t Gigli rock bottom ($3.7M opening), rather around the low depths of 2000’s Boiler Room ($5.7M) in Affleck’s filmography. Given Affleck’s Oscar pedigree, Warner Bros. intended to prop this during awards season, but the film didn’t catch on with the Broadcast Film Critics, and it was all downhill from there as film reviewers piled on with a 32% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
I hear Affleck is very proud of this movie, from its performances down to its set design, and he’ll continue to make more ambitious fare. But Live by Night is unfortunately just another example, like Paramount’s poor Allied (61% fresh, $12.7M opening, $40M domestic), of how period films are impossible to launch when they lack a groundswell of champion critics. And if the weekend has a motif, it’s that you’re largely as good as dead at the B.O. when you’re not in the awards conversation. One insider thought maybe Live by Night should have been released at a different time of year and sold as a mere pulpy gangster movie (Warner Bros. did open its non-awards contender Gangster Squad to $17M and made $46M during the same weekend four years ago). But then again, the limited New York and L.A. business indicated immediately that audiences weren’t impressed, and that’s further underscored by the pic’s B CinemaScore tonight. 50% turned up for Affleck, 16% for Sienna Miller, Elle Fanning and Zoe Saldana with the 25-34 age group at 19% actually enjoying the movie with an A-. But lots of old men buying tickets here at 88% over 25, 44% over 50 with guys at 54%.
Silence isn’t that wide at 747 locations, but it’s wide enough to show that outside New York and Los Angeles, the two-hour-and-forty-one minute Martin Scorsese Roman Catholic passion project isn’t working at $2.35M for the four-day and $1.99M for its three-day, well outside the top 10. It’s not a western, but a philosophical reflection on the boundaries of theology. That’s pretty deep for the average multiplex denizen and without any key awards glamour to speak of, neither upscale nor regular moviegoers are apt to show up. Should Silence, by chance, earn some key Oscar noms, that could nudge its ticket sales slightly, but the deck is currently stacked against this film in its national expansion. Paramount was smart to get the Vatican and the Jesuits’ endorsement for this pic early, not only to erase the stigma left by Scorsese’s The Last Temptation of Christ among some Christian moviegoers, but to also launch the film to foreign audiences who are more attracted to auteurs than American audiences. Silence carries a production cost of $40M, before P&A.
Here’s the Top Ten Chart and some Notables (Anita Busch reported the Monday AM Write-thru):
1.) Hidden Figures (Fox) 3,286 theaters (+815) / $5.5M Fri. / $8.5M Sat. / $6.45M Sun. / $4.85M Monday / 3-day: $20.8M (-10%) / 4-day: $25.9M to $26M+ / Total: $60.3M to $60.6M / Wk 4
2.) Sing (ILL/UNI), 3,693 theaters (-262) / $2.9M Fri. / $6.2M Sat. / $5M Sun. / $5.7M Mon. / 3-day cume: $14.2M (-31%) / 4-day: $19M to $20M / Total: $238.3 to $239M / Wk 4
3.) La La Land (Lionsgate) 1,848 (+333) / $4.1M Fri. / $5.8M Sat. / $4.6M Sun. / $3.2M Mon. / 3-day: $14.48M (+43%) / 4-day: $17.5M to $17.8M / Total: $77M+ / Wk 6
4.) Rogue One (DIS), 3,162 theaters (-995) / $3.2M Fri. / $5.7M Sat. / $4.8M Sun. / $3.29M Mon. / 3-day cume: $13.36M (-40%) / 4-day: $17.1M / Total: $502.19M / Wk 5
5.) The Bye Bye Man (STX) 2,220 theaters / $5.54M Fri. / $4.8M Sat. / $3.1M Sun. / $1.6M Mon. / 3-day: $13.5M / 4-day: $15.3M / Wk 1
6.) Monster Trucks (PAR) 3,119 theaters / $2.6M Fri. / $4.6M Sat. / $3.6M Sun. / $3.6M Mon. / 3-day: $10.8M / 4-day: $14.6M / Wk 1
7.) Patriot’s Day (CBS/LG), 3,120 theaters (+3,113) / $4.1M Fri. / $4.3M Sat. / $3.1M Sun. / $2M Mon. / 3-day: $11.6M (+10,968%) / 4-day: $13.6M / Total: $14.45M / Wk 4
8.) Sleepless (OR) 1,803 theaters / $3M Fri. / $3.1M Sat. / $2.1M Sun. / $1.29M Mon. / 3-day: $8.1M to $8.3M / 4-day: $9.5M+ / Wk 1
9.) Underworld: Blood Wars (Sony) 3,070 theaters / $1.7M Fri. / $2.5M Sat. / $1.8M Sun. / $1M / 3-day: $5.29M (-55%) / 4-day: $7.2M / Total: $25.3M / Wk 2
10.) Passengers (Sony) 2,447 theaters (-953) / $1.5M Fri. / $2.2M Sat. / $1.5M Sun. / $1M Mon. / 3-day: $5.3M (-36%) / 4-day: $6.4M / Total: $90.75M / Wk 4
11). Moana (DIS) 1,847 theaters (-702) / $801K Fri. /$1.89M Sat. / $1.58M Sun. / $1.78M Mon. / 3-day: $4.2M / 4-day $6M / Total: $233.3M / Wk 8
12.) Live by Night (WB), 2,822 theaters (+2,818) / $1.95M Fri. / $1.88M Sat. / $1.2M Sun. / $830K Mon. / 3-day: $5.1M (+18500%) / 4-day: $5.7M / Total: $5.9M / Wk 4
Notables:
Silence (PAR), 747 theaters (+696) / $658K Fri. / $744K Sat. / $579K Sun. / $300K Mon. / 3-day: $1.99M (+311%) / 4-day: $2.3M / Total: $3.4M / Wk 4
20th Century Women (Annapurna/A24) 29 theaters (+19) / $87K Fri. / $122K Sat. / $106K Sun. / $75K Mon. / 3-day: $316K (+141%) / 4-day: $390K / Total: $834K / Wk 3
Moonlight (A24) 582 theaters (+447) / $296K Fri. / $437K Sat. / $360K Sun. / $298K Mon. / 3-day: $1M (+240%) / 4-day:$1.4M / Total: $14.9M / Wk 13
Industry estimates as of Saturday, Jan. 14:
1.) Hidden Figures (Fox) 3,286 theaters (+815)/$5.5M Fri (-28%) /$3-day: $19.6M (-14%)/4-day: $25.3M/Total: $60.5M/Wk 4
2.) Sing (ILL/UNI), 3,693 theaters (-262) /$2.9M Fri.(-44%) /3-day cume: $13.4M (-35%)/4-day: $18.2M /Total: $237.5M/Wk 4
3.) La La Land (Lionsgate) 1,848 (+333) /$4.1M Fri (+32%)/3-day:$13.9M (+38%)/4-day:$16.9M/Total:$76.4M/ Wk 6
4.) The Bye Bye Man (STX) 2,220 theaters /$5.5M Fri/3-day:$14.5M /4-day:$16.3M/Wk 1
5.) Rogue One (DIS), 3,162 theaters (-995)/$3.3M Fri. (-46%)/ 3-day cume: $12.9M (-42%)/4-day:$16.1M/Total: $501.2M/Wk 5
6.) Patriot’s Day (CBS/LG), 3,120 theaters (+3,113) /$4.1M Fri (+11,071%) /3-day: $12M (+11,900%)/4-day: $14.2M/Total: $15.1M/Wk 4
7.) Monster Trucks (PAR) 3,119 theaters / $2.6M Fri. / 3-day: $10.1M / 4-day:$13.5M / Wk 1
8.) Sleepless (OR) 1,803 theaters / $3M Fri. / $3M Sat. 3-day:$8.5M /4-day:$9.9M/Wk 1
9..) Underworld: Blood Wars (Sony) 3,070 theaters /$1.7M Fri (-65%)/3-day: $5.8M (-57%)/4-day: $6.8M /Total:$24.9M/ Wk 2
10.) Passengers (Sony) 2,447 theaters (-953) / $1.5M Fri (-44%)/3-day: $5.375M (-39%)/4-day: $6.5M /Total:$90.9M/ Wk 4
11.) Live by Night (WB), 2,822 theaters (+2,818) /$1.9M Fri. (+23,650%) /3-day:$5.6M(+21,528%)/4-day:$6.5m/Total: $6.5M/ Wk 4
Notables:
Silence (PAR), 747 theaters (+696) /$657K Fri. (+330%) /3-day:$2M (+317%)/4-day: $2.4M/Total: $3.5M/ Wk 4
20th Century Women (Annapurna/A24) 29 theaters (+19) /$87K Fri (+110%) /3-day: $293k (+125%)/4-day:$355K/Total: $799K/Wk 3
Moonlight (A24) 582 theaters (+447) /$289K Fri (+200%) /3-day: $1.1M (+41%)/4-day:$1.3M/Total: $14.8M/Wk 13
2ND UPDATE, Friday 12 Noon: Midday matinees are in and judging off of them, 20th Century Fox’s Hidden Figures is poised to take its second No. 1 win over the MLK weekend four-day with $24M-$25M from 3,286 theaters, 815 more sites than last weekend. Friday for the Ted Melfi-directed title is expected to wind up at an estimated $6M,
Everything in spots 2 through 5 is looking tight, and I’m told that if there’s a case of a four card monte shuffle, it’s here. With $4M today, Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is currently projected in second with $17M over FSSM with the pic crossing the five-century mark on Monday with $502M+.
CBS/Lionsgate’s Patriots Day about the Boston Marathon bombing is looking at $4.5M today with an estimated $16M over four-days. Let’s remember that Deepwater Horizon, the last Peter Berg-Mark Walhberg combo had a blase start at $20.2M. Note, after rebates, Patriots Day cost 63% less than Deepwater, $40M to $110M before P&A. Patriots will try to hold back Illumination/Universal’s Sing which is also looking to come in around the $16M range.
Though ranking right behind, Lionsgate’s La La Land propelled by a huge amount of awards season traction, will see its largest weekend haul to date in its sixth frame with $14M at 1,848 sites after a $3.2M Friday. Total cume by Monday will be at $73.6M.
Out of the new wide entries, STX’s The Bye Bye Man looks to be benefiting off its Friday the 13th opening date with a projected 4-day of $13.5M off a $7.4M production budget. Not too shabby.
Then there’s a lot of dead wood among those that dared to go wide or open this weekend:
Paramount’s having a lousy weekend with the $125M budgeted Monster Trucks set to go off the road with $2M today and $9.8M for FSSM while Silence goes wide at 750 sites with a paltry projected $2.3M over four; Martin Scorsese getting overlooked by the DGA for a passion project he took close to three decades to build about two Portuguese Jesuits who try to find their missing mentor in 17th century Japan. This despite all the good will from the Vatican that the movie received in its launch.
Warner Bros. Ben Affleck gangster movie Live by Night based on the Dennis Lehane novel is riddled with bullet holes on track for $2.5M and a $8.8M four-day weekend. The pic could not collect any awards season strength and was gunned down by critics with a 32% Rotten Tomatoes score. Jamie Foxx’s Sleepless from Open Road is asleep with $2.5M today and an estimated $8M for the weekend.
1st UPDATE: In one of the most crowded MLK weekends in years, a handful of movies aimed to put their best foot forward last night. Currently this morning, CBS/Lionsgate’s Patriots Day, which is expanding from seven Boston-Los Angeles-New York sites to 3,120 theaters today, grossed $560,000 from 2,000 venues that started showtimes at 7 PM.
That preview figure is a less than the $860K made by the previous Peter Berg-Mark Wahlberg collaboration, Deepwater Horizon ($860K Thursday, $7M Friday, $20.2M opening), back in October and just below Hacksaw Ridge’s $750K Thursday ($5.3M Friday, $15.1M opening). But unlike the weekends when those pics launched, the current FSS is primed by holiday business. Tracking earlier this week had Patriots Day in line for a $20M-$22M four-day opening, in a fight for No. 1 alongside 20th Century Fox’s Hidden Figures, which was No. 1 yesterday with $2M and a running cume of $34.4M, and Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which ranked third on Thursday with $1.7M and a running cume of $485M. The Gareth Edwards-directed prequel is headed toward $500M this weekend.
After a surprise win at the B.O. last weekend with $22.8M, Hidden Figures blasts from 2,471 sites to 3,286 today.
Lionsgate’s La La Land — even before its weekend expansion from 1,515 sites to 1,848 — was No. 2 yesterday with an estimated $1.8M, taking its five week total to $59.6M. After winning seven Golden Globes on Sunday, the pic’s director Damien Chazelle scored a DGA nom yesterday.
Open Road’s Jamie Foxx cop action title Sleepless drew $410K last night. Juxtapose this with Foxx’s White House Down, which made $1.35M from Thursday midnights; and keep in mind that movie flopped with a $24.9M opening and a tentpole cost of $150M (final B.O. global was $205.4M). Granted, Sleepless is much cheaper at $30M. Tracking earlier this week had the opening for the Foxx film between $7M-$8M at 1,800 locations.
STX’s PG-13 horror title The Bye Bye Man drew $400K last night, a figure that’s below the last PG-13 genre title Ouija: Origin Of Evil ($720k) and well below the Thursday nights posted by such PG-13 slashers as Lights Outs ($1.8M) and Insidious Chapter 3 ($1.55M). Tracking had Bye Bye in the $10M vicinity. Production cost for this pic directed by Stacy Title is at $7.4M, with STX having limited exposure as they co-financed with the Los Angeles Media Fund.
Warner Bros’ Ben Affleck 1920s gangster movie Live By Night goes from four New York and Los Angeles locations to 2,822. Pic held Thursday night previews and grossed $325K, which is 24% of the business that The Accountant posted on its first Thursday with $1.35M (that pic put up a $9.1M first day and $24.7M opening). Tracking has the $65M-budgeted production — Affleck’s biggest as director — opening at $10M stateside. Pic is also going out in a number of foreign territories this weekend including Russia and the UK.
Paramount’s CGI live-action kid pic Monster Trucks, which the studio has already written off to $115M months ago, rolls into a theaters today, but it didn’t hold any previews last night. Tracking is anywhere between $8M-$12M over four days.
Hidden Figures expanding into more than 3,000 theaters? Of course it will win the weekend with it expanding by 800 theaters.
@Ando – Stop whining and complaining man, Hidden Figures just clearly has strongest legs of all the films right now. It’s still other films playing in more than 3,000 theaters so stop riding off that excuse and just give the film it’s props for displaying staying power. It’s taken over the box office the past few weeks.
Let’s be practical.
Hidden figures.
What is it about I’m supposed to spend my time trying to figure out why what who is this about why go to the theatre.
Fences.
Same as above.
Sleepless, silence, bye bye man, live by night. And the rest of ambiguity for titles.
Lala land –
oh must be about la and look a poster of people dancing. That looks like fun.
Please.
Enough with the bland boring mysterious titles. Like saying go away we don’t need your business. Sorry for the rant.
Haha I wasn’t getting into all that, I was simply talking about how well the film is performing at the box office.
Agree re: the wonky titles. It’s beyond head-scratching that studios spend years and millions filming a movie, then create a canyon between the film and the audience with one final idiotic stroke of the pen. Keep being lofty and cryptic, Hollywood, and keep hemorrhaging talent and money to television.
HIDDEN FIGURES is a brilliant title. It’s a pun, referring to the math that hasn’t been figured out as well as the three black women who solved the math but who went unheralded until now. Similarly, FENCES is both literal (the one Troy is building in his yard) and metaphorical (the ones he puts between himself and everyone else).
But in any event, there are trailers, TV spots, articles, talk show appearances, and even (gasp) reviews to let people know what every new movie is about. (FENCES the play was also a Pulitzer and multiple Tony winner.) Going to a movie based solely on how coherent the title is is ludicrous.
BTW, there were no dogs in STRAW DOGS, straw or otherwise, nor oranges in A CLOCKWORK ORANGE, but both were still enormous hits. People were smarter then.
Agree that HIDDEN FIGURES is a great title–which is some of why it’s been successful. But “SILENCE” and “FENCES” and “SLEEPLESS” are just plain forgettable, I don’t care what the source material is. STRAW DOGS and CLOCKWORK ORANGE are brilliant and prove titles don’t have to be literal, but in this day and age, have to be memorable and somewhat searchable online, i.e., not so generic considering all the book, movie, and TV titles out there. People weren’t smarter back then, there were simply fewer entertainment choices that were around long enough to get traction via word of mouth. That’s so over, and the sooner studios grasp that fact, the more successful their movies will be.
Good to see Rogue One fading so quickly. It hasn’t even reached $1 billion worldwide yet. The Force Awakens: $2 billion. That is -50% for the Star Wars franchise in one year! Greedy Disney is killing the golden goose.
Reaching 500M domestically is very impressive to say the least. While Rogue will certainly reach 1 billion, it does seems to be cooling off both domestically and internationally. It might reach 1.1 billion in the end, if not it will likely come pretty close to it.
Hmm…the film made an enormous profit and is one of the few films to ever make 500 million domestic and will make a billion worldwide, all the while it is basically just a fuller for fans until the next episode of the Skywalker saga returns. I’d say Disney was pretty smart. Also, while no one expects Episode 8 to bring as much as episode 7 did, is still will be poised to make 700 million domestic and 1.5 worldwide, maybe more now that it appears to be the last time Carrie Fisher and Leia will be on screen, death bumps can do wonders for a film’s box office. No, the only ones laughing are Disney shareholders and executives. But keep on dreaming that this film was in anyway a failure.
POC won’t support Mark Wahlberg for his heinous crimes.
Huh?
Look it up. He’s been charged with attempted murder and assault on two Vietnamese men, and crimes against black children (!), as well as drug charges. He’s a racist nutjob. He admitted it all so it isn’t a matter of opinion.
Hey dum dum, he was 16. God dang we need to find a volcano to throw you in
Look at it this way if Marks crimes from years ago hurt this film, then the argument that Meryl Streeps Golden Globes speech had an impact on the box office. In all honesty after such a dark election year (I don’t care who you supported it was dark) plus these terrorist attacks happening all over the world I don’t think Deepwater or Patriots Day had a chance. Also it’s expensive to go to the movies now. I’m sure cost of tickets and such play a huge part in a movie succeeding or flopping no matter how big the star is. People are not going to the movies just to support a particular actor, the movie has to be decent looking at least. That’s why I still think J-Laws $20 million dollar paycheck for Passangers was ridiculous. We are way past the days when the name Julia Roberts, Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise, or Will Smith could open a film on namesake alone.
Making Good Vibrations with his funky bunch is just a crime I simply cannot forgive.
The best comment by far!!
Mark is a Republican. That’s his “heinous crimes” I guess. Or sorry could be referring to Mark having blinded an Asian man last century. Who knows? But apparently sorry speaks for all people of color now. Not sure if you have to be elected to that position or it’s like royalty and it’s a birth right. Care to let us know, sorry?
last century? why trivialize something so vile?
Google is your friend. Wahlberg is repulsive.
Exactly. But we know the GOP crowd ignores facts when it suits them.
WOW! didn’t know he blinded person.
And yet he still seems to have about as many hits as most of the other big film stars. It just comes down to the film, and people don’t seem that interested in this one.
LOL, sure. Except when he’s in Transformers. Or Ted. Or Daddy’s Home. Or Lone Survivor. etc.
Maybe…or maybe people are just growing very tired of marky mark and his cronies cashing in 20 million dollars a movie when all they are pumping out is mediocre watered down recreations of the latest disaster of the week. What’s next the ‘true story’ of the harrowing tale of my cat getting rescued from a tree?
Surprised that the boycott loving republicans didn’t go out and support mark wahlberg who was kinda annoying by saying that celebrities should shut up about politics.
I thought the trailer for Patriot’s Day was corny, but was blown away by the movie, which I saw in way too hip Austin, TX. Theater was crowded. Very hushed at the end of the movie
Ditto (minus Austin)
Just not a movie that would get me to,spend a small fortune to go to the theatre regardless of who is in it.
Cannot wait for M. Night’s Split
Poor Scorsese. Still excited to see this passion project from our greatest living director. It’s a bit shocking to see the award reaction to it.
Affleck doesn’t take failure well. He’s probably raging right now. His first flop as a director after three well received movies. Wonder what went wrong this time?
Maybe spreading himself too thin?
I obviously haven’t seen the movie yet but I swear “Live by Night” looks like a prohibition era version of “The Town”. I hear that was one problem with it is Affleck kind of treads over familiar territory thematically so it feels dull at times. Now critics, mind you, are idiots these days. Few know a good movie if it bit them in the hide, but let’s keep in mind Affleck, in the midst of making this film, was getting divorced and also was getting sucked into the DC comic book game. He probably is mentally wiped right now.
No one is interested in prohibition gangster movies.
I think his personal life has been a disaster this past year, and then BVS happened, he is just not in his right mind probably.
Silence is a very difficult, thoughtful, violent film. It’s themes and thoughts on apostasy and martyrdom will not sit will with either general or christian audiences. It’s a very worthy addition to his resume but the movie is work to sit though. It’s not the kind of film that will ever win awards but it’s a very worthy companion piece to Last Temptation.
WTF is Open Road doing?!? How can you move that movie up to MLK weekend with the idea of targeting diverse movie goers and not target them in the marketing of the film? Where was Jamie Foxx or TI on the promo circuit pushing the film. They barely mentioned it on their respective social media platforms. Who allowed Gabrielle Union to promote the premiere of Being Mary Jane with no mention of Sleepless? You had to know that Michelle Monaghan’s focus would be Patriot’s Day so why drop the ball with the other three. An utter lack of strategic planning from their Executive team that will result in another flop!
It’s a mediocre movie and probably would’ve performed the same, if not worse, on any other weekend.
Agreed, but why even half-ass it when ORF is on the brink of bankruptcy?
The best part is Jamie tweet d everybody should go see hidden figures before sleepless even opened haha
Next time don’t get movie ideas from your spoiled 4 year-old. Or political advice from your spoiled adult children, for that matter.
Bingo.
The weather is horrible where we live. Maybe, that has something to do with it, nationwide rotten weather.
weather, it was just new years,
and
people of tired of being lectured to by movies and not having a fun entertainment value.
There’s a lot of fun movies out you dumb troll
Market is super saturated right now.The market has been crowded since rogue one.After rogue one(485)and counting, like 7 movies came out the next weekend and than some oscar contenders got buzz the weekend after.With movies like assassins creed,passengers collateral beauty way underperforming..a-creed and passengers should of had a different date to begin with in the first place which would of gave rogue one,sing,why him and other movies less drops…
This weekend jeeez,theres another 6 movies wide/expanding.sleepless has no ads,monster trucks is DOA,live by night bombed,patriots day is doing less than expected.theres just too many movies.seems like summer season with so many movies getting released in just 3 weeks..hidden figures star wars and sing could be doing a bit better but with last weeks weather and with so many movies getting released this weekend there is no breathing room
Ryan gosling and Emma stone deserve oscars this year.
“Still excited to see this passion project from our greatest living director. It’s a bit shocking to see the award reaction to it.”
The ‘passion project’ he had to be threatened with a lawsuit to actually get off his backside and make? Lol, you fanboys make me laugh. The movie is flopping because it is absurdly overlong, immensely boring (somebody PLEASE keep Scorsese away from having anything to do with the writing of his screenplays) and like most all of this directors films it is emotionally unengaging – no one gives a toss about any of the characters.
These are the trademarks of what you laughably describe as “our greatest living director”.
Thanks, I’ll pass.
yes, he still is the greatest living director, given what he has made and then fact he is still alive now.
Haneke is the greatest living director. He deals with similar issues as Scorcese but does it with thought. Cachet and Amour are priceless.
So what are you trying to say, films like “Mean Street”, “Alice Doesn’t live Here Anymore”, “Taxi Driver”, “Raging Bull”, “Goodfellas” and “The Departed” don’t have thought to them? Haha man name one film this director you’re raving about has made that’s on the level of those masterpieces I mentioned. Man these delusional kids these days haha.
Did Pedro Almodovar die? Not that I’m aware of. I’ll go with him. Or Ken Loach. Or Mike Leigh. Scorsese’s overrated.
@Jen – It’s a matter of opinion. The director you mentioned has not made one film on par with the great films I mentioned either young lady, so it’s a check mate and game over for you as well. Keep it moving.
Whoa ain’t nobody going to the movies this weekend lol
I met two middle aged couples coming out of SILENCE and asked them what they thought; they Hated the movie, calling it the most depressing picture they had ever seen. Also told me they went to see it because they had so enjoyed The Departed and Good Fellas. As they walked away, two of the people warned me: “See anything else! don’t go!”
Yup. Incredibly depressing movie. Very thoughtful in it’s views on religion and what faith means. It’s a three hour meditation on faith that, while it doesn’t really take a side, can leave one feeling that it’s all meaningless. I, personally, loved it.
Why were most of these even made ? Monster Trucks ? garbage on wheels is more like it. Patriots Day looks good , but its a real downer. Why are people making films on subjects that have recently happened ? Sleepless ? why ?
Live By Night is the perfect example of the antiquated Hollywood thinking that everything must be a movie. It should have been an eight to ten episode miniseries.
I thought the same thing. Film isn’t horrible — just is incredibly mediocre. Should have been an HBO/Netflix limited series. Too dense for a film.
Never thought about that but you are 100% right. Could have been in the vein of Boardwalk Empire – felt like there was more material than they could cram into a movie.
Yes Sleepless is bombing, but to suggest there’s only room in the marketplace for one African american movie at a time is pretty tasteless. It’s a bomb because it looks like a one off January programmer, not because of Hidden Figures.
Why would any studio invest $125 million in a film as obviously risky (and awful) as “Monster Trucks?” They could have made five $25 million more reasonably ambitious and profitable films with that money.
Especially Paramount – they are usually cagey about spending a lot of money at a time, often to a fault. But they went out on a limb for this?!
there studio head’s 4 year old son came up with the Idea
Is La La Land finally going full wide release next weekend? This is taking forever and the numbers are clearly there!
Because a slow roll-out is allowing word of mouth to catch up. I don’t think anyone has an idea of final gross on this…$150-mil? 200-mil? Amazing.
Wait until Gold and The Founder open. Those are two other “award contender” flops waiting to happen.
Insane scheduling and marketing planning from all of these people, thinking their movies were THAT amazing.
I can’t imagine the budget on The Founder was that high.
LA LA LAND will overperform.
Has already.
Brad Grey hosted an event where he presented all the winter movies as if they would be hits. Excepting ARRIVAL which was picked up, all the movies are bombs. And now MONSTER TRUCKS arrived DOA as expected. What is Viacom board doing?
Is Fences really a bomb?
It’s really weird, it had an extremely impressive second weekend hold in wide release, but then totally dropped the next weekend… I don’t think it’s a flop, but it should’ve made more :\
Again we suffer from being too coast-centric. There is a very bad ice storm blanketing much of the midwest right now and that could very well be affecting grosses, certainly the ones where people aren’t running right out to see.
You forget that Berg and Wahlberg previously worked together on Lone Survivor so this is their third collaboration. That one at least was a hit.
” foreign audiences […] are more attracted to auteurs than American audiences”
Thank you! I’m tired of the basic Hollywood exec mentality that we have to dumb down our films to attract foreign audiences.
When in reality, they have to be dumbed down for the American audiences.
The numbers beg to differ. Franchises like transformers and Pirates have had huge drops in the USA but bigger and bigger overseas. Really the American audiences are the dumb ones?
See also Warcraft, Angry Birds, Looking Glass, Ninja Turtles, Inferno(!), Gods of Egypt…
Sadly, dumb movies that bomb in the USA can now get sequels based on doing well enough overseas.
It is called overseas market expansion. The drop in other markets will get compensated by booming asian markets. ( thats how AOU improved on Avengers. Most overseas markets dropped compared to Avengers but china made up for it). And all the sequels you mentioned had huge drop from thier predecessors.
Americans are not that smart either. Thier highest grossing movie is a dull, note by note and unimaginative remake.
And you would be correct!
Um. Did you see who they just elected as POTUS?
And Rogue passed Dory yesterday to become the biggest film in the USA for 2016. The predictions that it might not pass CIvil War, not to mention Ultron or Dory, are looking mighty silly now. And those who insisted it was failing, or would have no legs, are either afraid to show their faces or trying to change the subject. So much for calling people “cheerleaders”, they turned out to be right as opposed to some of the comically low predictions.
@milo – It’s not silly at all to think Rogue might not reach Civil War’s global box office gross of 1.154 billion. The movie is still 200 million away from catching it and it’s opened in every single territory now including China which hasn’t been too impressive so far, so what are you talking about. Rogue will obviously reach 1 billion with no problem but it’s starting to look unlikely that it will catch Civil War’s global box office take, so we’ll see.
Given that he listed Dory as being bigger than Civil War, it’s safe to say he was probably talking domestic box office, not worldwide.
No he was talking Civil War because he knows that it’s currently the biggest worldwide grossing film of 2016. Obviously Rogue passed Civil War sometime ago domestically, but passing Civil War internationally and globally will prove to be a much tougher task for Rogue.
No he’s definitely taking about domestic he says USA in it
Well as far as domestic goes Rogue is definitely the top dog without question, reaching 500M is very domestic being this is only the 7th film to ever accomplish that feat.