5TH UPDATE, Sunday AM: What happened this weekend at the box office to completely deep-six three wide releases? The casualties: Blair Witch (Lionsgate, est. $9.65M, $5M production cost, mid-to-high $20M), Bridget Jones’s Baby (Universal/Working Title/Miramax/StudioCanal, est. $8.2M, $35M production cost) and Snowden (Open Road, est. $8M, production cost $50M).
Peg it to a maelstrom of awful tracking, dusty properties and too many titles catering to the female demo. At $89M, this weekend charted the lowest amount of tickets sales so far in 2016. In fact we made 28% more at the box office during the weekend of January 22-24 ($113.6M), and that’s when a slew of multiplexes closed in the Northeast due to a huge snowstorm! Prior to this weekend, Feb. 5-7 was the lowest B.O. weekend of the year with $95M.
Blair Witch was hoped to go toe-to-toe with Sully for the No. 1 spot. Forecasts were in the $15M-$20M-plus range, while Bridget Jones’s Baby was expected to post the best opening of its franchise with $13M-$17M.
Said one distribution executive this morning, “I think sometimes tracking throws off false indicators. With Blair Witch projected near $20M, it was clear that the people who saw it didn’t like it and told their friends in big numbers, and there’s no way to come back from that.”
The last time audiences saw a Blair Witch movie was 16 years ago, and the last Bridget Jones was 12 years ago. And by the look of their weekend ticket sales, no one was begging for the return of either franchise.
In addition, all of these wide entries were clamoring for female audiences’ attention, a demographic that Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s Sully continued to own with 55% women/82% over 25 (per ComScore’s PostTrak) in a second weekend that grossed $22M, -37% for a 10-day total of $70.5M. PostTrak showed Baby skewing toward older women at 79% females/84% 25+. CinemaScore also showed Snowden attracting older females at 53%/77% over 25. Prior to Friday, Blair Witch was tracking as the first choice among young females and per PostTrak pulled in 50% of them, 51% under 25.
Trackers also bet high on Blair Witch because the genre rallies in the fall, and there was a lot of wattage coming from Lionsgate’s innovative marketing campaign.
From the outside looking in, it would seem that the microbudget horror business is an easy feat. But just because it’s cheap doesn’t mean a sizable crowd automatically shows up and a distributor profits. Blair Witch is bound to lose a few million.
Bu what’s really upsetting here is that from the moment Lionsgate pulled off its clever marketing moment at Comic-Con (revealing that The Woods was actually Blair Witch), there seemed to be a reinvigorated interest in the property. The first round of horror reviews coming out of Comic-Con gave Blair Witch a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score before the critical status quo drove it down to 37% Rotten. Coming away with a D+ CinemaScore this weekend, Blair Witch seemed just an excuse among moviegoers to sit and eat candy in the dark.
Even though Lionsgate broke ground by utilizing the virtual reality format in Blair Witch‘s campaign with mobile ads and the first 360-degree virtual reality website using Google Cardboard (which drew 2M), Relish Mix reports that the film’s social “was challenged by both an unknown, non-social cast and mixed conversation. Some horror fans ranked Blair Witch as one of the best films ever in the genre and were rabid to see it. But others felt exactly the opposite and were not fazed by the positive reviews and the initial secrecy surrounding this movie.” In the end no amount of clever tricks could put a spell on moviegoers to see Blair Witch. Coming off of one of the best summers for the genre, this audience responds to genre auteurs like James Wangreat and high concepts like blind men in basements who aren’t really so blind (Screen Gems’ Don’t Breathe stole $5.6M worth of business away from Blair Witch and is officially Screen Gems’ highest grossing horror movie ever with $75.3M).
Despite Snowden‘s misfire at the B.O., Open Road stands by the movie as a potential awards contender. Said the label’s president of marketing Jonathan Helfgot this morning, “Snowden is a smart and provocative thriller that connected strongly with audiences. While we’d like to have seen a slightly bigger number for the opening weekend, we are very encouraged by Snowden‘s ‘A’ Cinemascore and exit polls and we expect the movie to thrive for several more weeks.”
It’s no surprise to see Snowden tank. Controversial subjects onscreen always come at a higher-than-indie budget for director Oliver Stone, and we’ve seen this repeatedly throughout his career with Alexander, W., The Doors, Nixon, etc. It’s not that they’re bad movies, it’s just the nature of doing business with an auteur Stone. And that can be said about other directors like Terrence Malick and Woody Allen. Financiers who put their necks on the line need to realize that it’s about being in business with these guys, not about making money. Art is the ultimate end game here.
Adult audiences take their time to get to the box office, and reviews are important. With a choice between Sully and Snowden, they put their money toward the better reviewed Sully (82% fresh) over Snowden (58% rotten). In addition, Sully has the platinum appeal of being an American hero, while red state audiences might be put off by Edward Snowden’s rebellious maneuvers with the U.S. government.
While Open Road takes confidence in its A CinemaScore, Uni is doing the same with its B+ CinemaScore and good reviews (78% fresh) for Bridget Jones’s Baby. But even though it’s the only true, wholehearted female choice out there until the studio’s DreamWorks title The Girl on a Train arrives on Oct. 7, it’s obvious there wasn’t enough support out there 12 years after Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason ($8.68M opening/$40.2M domestic). Nor were U.S./Canada crowds interested in seeing Renee Zellweger’s comeback after six years away from the big screen. Still, the reason this title was resurrected was its foreign appeal, and this weekend Baby counts close to $30M.
Top 13 films per studio-reported figures for the weekend of Sept. 16-18:
1). Sully (WB), 3,525 theaters / $6.6M Fri. / $9.6M Sat./ $5.8M Sun. / 3-day cume: $22M (-37%)/Total: $70.5M / Wk 2
2). Blair Witch (LG), 3,121 theaters / $4M Fri. / $3.6M Sat. / $1.9M Sun. / 3-day cume: $9.65M / Wk 1
3). Bridget Jones’s Baby (UNI), 2,927 theaters / $3M Fri. / $3.25M Sat. / $1.95M Sun. / 3-day cume: $8.24M / Wk 1
4). Snowden (OR), 2,443 theaters / $3M Fri. / $3M Sat. / $1.97M Sun. / 3-day cume: $8M / Wk 1
5). Don’t Breathe (SONY), 3,208 theaters (-176) / $1.6M Fri. / $2.5M Sat. / $1.3M Sun. / 3-day cume: $5.6M (-32%)/ Total cume: $75.3M / Wk 4
6). When the Bough Breaks (SONY), 2,246 theaters /$1.6M Fri. / $2.6M Sat. / $1.2M Sun. / 3-day cume: $5.5M (-61%)/Total: $22.7M Wk 2
7). Suicide Squad (WB), 2,740 theaters (-363) / $1.1M Fri. / $2.2M Sat./ $1.25M Sun. (-45%) / 3-day cume: $4.7M (-18%) / Total cume: $313.8M / Wk 7
8). The Wild Life (LG), 2,493 theaters / $530K Fri. / $1.3M Sat. / $797k Sun. / 3-day cume: $2.65M (-21%)/Total:$6.7M/ Wk 1
9). Kubo and the Two Strings (FOC), 1,757 theaters (-578) / $521K Fri. / $1.2M Sat. / $783M Sun. / 3-day cume: $2.5M (-24%) / Total cume: $44.2M / Wk 5
10). Pete’s Dragon (DIS), 1,948 theaters (-737) / $459K Fri. / $1M Sat. / $520K Sun. / 3-day cume: $2M (-34%) / Total cume: $72.8M / Wk 6
11). Hell or High Water (CBS/Lionsgate), 1,505theaters (+60) / $589K Fri. / $885K Sat. / $451K Sun. / 3-day cume: $1.9M (-22%)/ Total cume: $22.7M / Wk 6
12). Bad Moms (STX), 1,486 theaters (-402) / $566K Fri. / $815K Sat. / $408K Sun / 3-day cume: $1.78M (-31%) / Total cume: $110M / Wk 8
13). Hillsong (Pure), 816 theaters (+60) / $628K Fri. / $406K Sat. / $266K Sun. / 3-day cume: $1.3M / Wk 1
Notables:
Beatles: Eight Days a Week (ABR), 90 theaters / $205k Fri. /$211K Sat/ $199K Sun/$ 3-day cume: $615k /Total: $772K Wk 1
Mr. Church (FREE/Cinelou), 354 theaters / $107k Fri. /$140K Sat./ $160K Sun./3-day cume: $407k /Wk 1
The Disappointments Room (REL), 1,554 theaters / $115K Fri. / $175K Sat. / $110K Sun. / 3-day cume: $400K (-71%) /Total B.O.: $2.2M/ Wk 2
4th Write-thru Saturday AM: With an estimated opening of $9.4M projected from East Coast late nights, Lionsgate’s Blair Witch is dying. But so is Universal/Miramax/Working Title/StudioCanal’s Bridget Jones’s Baby (third place estimated $8.7M) and Open Road’s Snowden (fourth place $8.5M) as Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s Sully flies the friendly skies with moviegoers to a second estimated No. 1 of $21.8M and a 10-day gross by Sunday of $70.3M.
As we pointed out last month, with 33 wide releases in the marketplace before Thanksgiving week, it’s the survival of the fittest with anywhere from three-to-five wide entries a weekend. Few will thrive, and casualties will abound. This is only the beginning. A motif for the weekend? In the case of Bridget Jones and Blair Witch, they’re dusty franchises abandoned by their target audiences. Snowden‘s problem? He’s the rebel to Sully‘s hero (see below). Overall, distributors’ B.O. projection systems broke down this week: Some were showing Blair Witch with a $20M opening and a shot at upsetting Sully for the top spot.
Well, so much for a reboot. Blair Witch‘s current projected 3-day is lower than the $13.2M that the 2000 sequel Book of Shadows: Blair Witch 2 opened to, and fans hated that one! Blair Witch arrives at the end of a summer that’s been a heyday for horror with Conjuring 2, The Purge: Election Year, Don’t Breathe and Lights Out grossing a combined $323M stateside. And after horror fans have feasted on these (mostly) critically acclaimed titles as though munching on pate, why would they crave chopped meat with a threequel that’s been panned by critics with a 38% Rotten Tomatoes score? Lionsgate was expecting to open Blair Witch to a gross in the mid-teens, which economically would have been fine for a pic that cost $5M along with a mid-to-high $20M P&A. At this level, it’s clear: Ding-dong, the Witch franchise is dead. Lionsgate had to know this was a downer, and it’s no coincidence that yesterday – of all days – they announce that their franchise-meister Rob Friedman is stepping down as the studio’s co-chair.
Blair Witch’s failure to deliver has to do with the property itself, and less with Lionsgate’s marketing. Let’s face it, that surprise screening at Comic-Con where attendees thought they were going to see The Woods was pretty clever and began generating buzz (apparently not enough). But this horror franchise was never screaming for sequels. 1999’s The Blair Witch Project was a huge success at $140.5M because the masses initially believed it was real, that it was some paranormal snuff film. Boosting the film’s profile further was a Blair Witch documentary – Curse of the Blair Witch – that Artisan aired on the Syfy network back in the day. Everyone thought three students actually went missing in a Maryland forest. With the latest installment, Lionsgate built a story around the younger brother of the girl who disappeared in the 1999 film. Along with a group of friends, he ventures back to the woods. But moviegoers really don’t care, and slapped Blair Witch with a D+ CinemaScore tonight. That’s just a little better than the D they gave Relativity’s horror film The Disappointments Room last week. That piece of bankruptcy collateral damage fell a horrendous 74% (close to Morgan‘s -76% second weekend drop off) with sophomore FSS of $367K.
Unlike certain franchise tentpoles that appeal across several generations, there’s a big gap between The Blair Witch Project and Blair Witch. Criticized one rival Gen Y studio development executive about the Blair Witch reboot, “My generation was super into the first title, but the second film destroyed it for us. So why would we be interested in this sequel? Then for the younger generation, they’ve already seen a slew of found footage movies like this one.”
Blair Witch‘s audience make-up consisted of 56% males/44% females who respectively gave it a D and D+. Over 25, who graded it a D, showed up at 61%. Seventy-six percent of the crowd came out because it was a horror movie, while 28% bought tickets because they were Blair Witch fans.
The power of Sony/Screen Gems/Studio 6’s Don’t Breathe among horror fans can’t be denied with a $5.56M projected weekend, down a modest -33%, and by Sunday it will topple 2005’s The Exorcism of Emily Rose as Screen Gems’ highest grossing horror title at the domestic box office. That’s $5.56M less that Blair Witch isn’t making this weekend.
In regards to Snowden, the movie with middling (56%) Rotten Tomatoes reviews is following in the shadow of the beloved Sully, which owns the majority of the 25+ crowd. But Sully vs. Snowden is more about the sterling American Hero vs. the controversial government whistleblower. Critics are severe because Edward Snowden is a multi-faceted guy, and each tweed has his or her own idea on how this complex life should be portrayed (i.e., mini-series). And the masses can embrace a guy like Sully, who saved lives, while the U.S. government has painted Edward Snowden as a traitor who threatened the nation’s security. Hard to get the red states inside theaters on this one. Stone’s highest grossing movies i.e. Platoon ($138.5M), JFK ($70.4M) and Born on the Fourth of July ($70M) have benefited from being year-end holiday releases and awards season crossovers. Snowden gets an A CinemaScore tonight which indicates that the former CIA contractor’s supporters showed up – but clearly not in bulk. Estimated production cost on Snowden, mostly carried by foreign sales, is $50M before P&A.
Very interesting audience breakdown here for Snowden shows that it, like Sully, cut into Bridget Jones’s Baby business: Majority of ticket buyers were older females at 53% women/77% over 25. Seventy-four percent of the CinemaScore moviegoers last night identified themselves as Edward Snowden aficionados.
Talk about tracking being way off: Bridget Jones’s Baby was supposed to post in the mid-teens, the series’ highest opening. Now it is poised to be the second highest, not that far from Edge of Reason‘s $8.68M, which was considered to be a stateside misfire with an end cume of $40.2M, next to Bridget Jones’s Diary‘s final domestic of $71.5M. Again, blame Sully. He’s popular with the older women (drew 56% females last week, with 90% over 25) who were supposed to show up with their friends at Bridget Jones. But then again, the tracking on this threequel seemed too good to be true for a franchise that’s over the hill, and a leading star – Renee Zellweger – who has been absent from the big screen for the last six years. The only saving grace for this Universal/Miramax/StudioCanal/Working Title femme film is overseas where in 39 territories it racked up $13M on Friday for a projected $29.4M weekend. So by Sunday, this $35M-budgeted film will count worldwide about $38.1M.
No shocker here: 78% females bought tickets to Baby with 88% over 25. Middle-age folks at 14% 25-34 and 25% 35-49 gave Baby an A-. Zellweger will be glad to hear this: 44% came to Baby because of her.
PureFlix’s faith-based documentary about the musical Australian church, Hillsong -Let Hope Rise is in need of more collections at 816 theaters and an estimated $1.87M FSS. In regards to docs alone, we’ve seen them make this much money on half the number of screens. And for a low-budget faith-based movie, we’ve seen better. No surprise to hear that this film earned an A CinemaScore as most faith-based films do along with a 90% positive score on PostTrak.
The top 10 films for the weekend of Sept. 16-18 per Saturday AM industry estimates:
1). Sully (WB), 3,525 theaters / $6.5M Fri. (-47%) / 3-day cume: $21.76M (-38%)/Total cume: $70.3M/Wk 2
2). Blair Witch (LG), 3,121 theaters / $4M Fri. (includes $765K previews) / 3-day cume: $9.4M /Wk 1
3). Bridget Jones’s Baby (UNI), 2,927 theaters / $3.04M Fri. (includes $364K previews) / 3-day cume: $8.7M / Wk 1
4). Snowden (OR), 2,443 theaters / $3.02M Fri. (includes $390K) / 3-day cume: $8.5M /Wk 1
5). Don’t Breathe (SONY), 3,208 theaters (-176) / $1.64M (-33%) Fri. / 3-day cume: $5.56M (-41%) / Total cume: $75.3M / Wk 4
6). When the Bough Breaks (SONY), 2,246 theaters / $1.64M Fri. (-69%) / 3-day cume: $5.2M (-63%) /Total cume: $22.4M/ Wk 2
7). Suicide Squad (WB), 2,740 theaters (-363) / $1.2M Fri. (-19%) / 3-day cume: $4.55M (-20%) / Total cume: $313.6M / Wk 7
8). Kubo and the Two Strings (FOC), 1,757 theaters (-578) / $519K Fri. (-23%) / 3-day cume: $2.6M (-21%) / Total cume: $44.3M / Wk 5
9). The Wild Life (LG), 2,493 theaters / $517K (-30%) Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.5M (-24%)/ Total: $6.5M/Wk 2
10). Pete’s Dragon (DIS), 1,948 theaters (-737) / $459K Fri. (-33%) / 3-day cume: $2.08M (-33%) / Total cume: $72.8M / Wk 6
11). Hell or High Water (CBS/Lionsgate), 1,505 theaters (+60) / $592K Fri. (-19%) / 3-day cume: $1.99M (-19%) / Total cume: $22.8M / Wk 6
12). Hillsong (PUR), 816 theaters / $628k Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.87M /Wk 1
NOTABLES:
Beatles: Eight Days a Week (ABR), 90 theaters / $203k Fri. / 3-day cume: $631k /Wk 1
Mr. Church (FREE), 354 theaters / $107k Fri. / 3-day cume: $521k /Wk 1
The Disappointments Room (REL), 1,554 theaters / $113K (-76%) Fri. / 3-day cume: $367K (-74%)/Total: $2.2M/Wk 2
12NOON Update: Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s Sully will remain at a high No. 1 altitude this weekend according to matinees with an estimated $21.3M weekend, down a decent 40%, for a 10-day take that’s just under $70M. Lionsgate’s Blair Witch is bound to take Friday away from the Tom Hanks film, $7M to $6.5M.
It will be interesting to see how front-loaded Blair Witch is as it heads toward an estimated $17.2M in second place, which for a $5M horror film is still pretty solid. Given the momentum of horror films lately at the B.O., tracking was drunk on a $20M-plus projection, particularly give the brand here. Book of Shadows: Blair Witch 2, which was a disaster in the wake of the huge success of 1999’s Blair Witch Project ($140M), cost an estimated $15M and opened to $13.2M (finaled at $26.4M). A different economy of scale is in place here by Lionsgate, who spent an estimated mid-to-high $20M in P&A on this third pic.
Universal/Working Title/Miramax/StudioCanal’s Bridget Jones’s Baby is currently projected to come in toward the lower end of its projections with a $4.7M Friday and $13M weekend; still the best debut this series has seen stateside next to its previous chapters, 2001’s Bridget Jones’s Diary ($10.7M) and 2004’s Edge of Reason ($10.7M). Numbers could spike on Saturday when the ladies hit the plex. Baby only cost an estimated $35M before P&A, and the fortune to be reaped here is abroad where a Bridget Jones movie can rack up $200M-plus.
Open Road’s Snowden is also flying low with a $2.7M Friday and projected $7.3M weekend. PureFlix’s faith-based documentary Hillsong – Let Hope Rise is crashing at 816 venues with $750K today and a $1.9M FSS.
1st UPDATE, Lionsgate’s Blair Witch pulled in $765K last night at 2,300 locations. Heading into the weekend, it was expected that Blair Witch and Sully could be in a draw for No. 1 with about $20M, however, now the Clint Eastwood-directed drama could have the edge over the Black Hills Forest posse with the latter bound to draw in the mid-to-high teens at 3,121 theaters today.
Even though Blair Witch‘s Thursday night is 60% less than the preview night of Sony/Screen Gem’s R-rated Don’t Breathe, which grossed $1.875M ($10M Friday, $26.4M weekend), one has to consider the fact that more kids were off from school at that point during the summer (roughly 40% schools and colleges were still on summer break on Aug. 25). Still the Fede Alvarez movie stole a decent chunk of business away from Blair Witch last night making $590K at 3,384 locations. Through three weeks, Don’t Breathe has accumulated $69.7M and will come close to becoming Screen Gems’ highest-grossing horror film, which remains The Exorcism of Emily Rose at $75.1M. Blair Witch has a 43% Rotten Tomatoes score. Again, horror films aren’t known for awesome reviews, however, this past summer was an exception with Don’t Breathe (87% fresh), The Conjuring 2 (80% fresh) and Lights Out (76% fresh).
In its first week, Clint Eastwood’s Sully has clocked $48.5M, which is 35% ahead of Hanks’ previous Oscar contender Captain Phillips which ended its run at $107.1M.
At one point during the week, Fandango noticed that Universal/Miramax/StudioCanal/Working Title’s Bridget Jones’s Baby advance tickets sales were quite strong, then Blair Witch pulled ahead, outstripping pre-sales for such horror pics like Lights Out ($21.7M) and Insidious: Chapter 3 ($22.7M).
Open Road’s Oliver Stone film Snowden actually beat Universal/Miramax/StudioCanal’s Bridget Jones’ Baby last night, $390K to $364K. The Edward Snowden biopic is expected to pull in $8M-$10M. On the high end, that will be close to the $10.5M that Stone’s George W. Bush biopic W. opened to back in October 2008, $10.5M. Snowden has a middling 58% Rotten Tomatoes score.
Renee Zellweger’s return to the big screen in 6 years is expected to post the biggest opening for the Bridget Jones franchise with a mid-teens debut. Baby played at 2,208 theaters last night from shows starting at 7PM. The threequel reunites Zellweger with the femme franchise’s first director Sharon Maguire. Given the older female appeal for Baby, that demo plans their trips to the movies in advance and typically attend in packs. So, Baby is bound to see more visitors as the weekend goes on. Per Thursday night comps for other older female films, Baby is above Warner Bros.’ September 2014 Tina Fey dramedy This Is Where I Leave You which made $150K ($3.9M Friday, $11.6M opening) and below last September’s The Intern which made $650K ($6.2M Friday, $17.7M opening). Baby has the best reviews of the weekend at 75% fresh.
Snowden was doomed the moment they started constantly moving the release date around & then settled on the worst month of the year. Plus the content isn’t new at all, Citizen Four is a much better watch (apparently) & it’s a documentary.
They screwed up Blair Witch so much, what a terrible ad campaign.
Another extremely awful weekend for movies: A movie about an airline flight that lasted less than 5 minutes that everyone already knows the complete story of, a reboot of Blair Witch Project, another sequel to Bridget Jones 12 years after the second movie bombed horribly, and Oliver Stone doing his standard political movie about the current hot political topic of the day. I have a hard time figuring out which industry is more creatively bankrupt: the movie or music industry.
I don’t know where you get your facts from. Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason didn’t bomb horribly. It actually took 262.5 million dollars worldwide. And Bridget Jones’s Baby hasn’t bombed either, as it has just opened No. 1 in 24 territories.
Jeff was talking about domestic gross. But I suspect you knew that.
Plus fans of Bridget Jones were also burned by the last one because it was so bad. Not exactly looking forward to the new one.
Nothing new(good) this week at red box either. Time to finally watch spotlight.
Outstanding acting and filming but a little creepy on the subject matter probably why it wasn’t a big seller.
you mean besides the fact it won the Oscar for best picture?
Ya that’s why I watched it.
Really great movie.
Sorry I couldn’t follow the big short. Keanu was fun.
And I’m not even considering Oscar winning grusome stuff. Next, wait for bad moms.
Neighbors 2.
Watching Snowden this weekend with my dad. Movie looks good and most of the folks I know who saw it last night said it was much better than what critics are saying.
Snowden flopping is no surprise. Stone is irrelevant these days. I can’t even remember when he last had a hit at the box office (1990s?).
World Trade Center did well, but Any Given Sunday was his last hit
I know every executive and producer is certain that branding is SOOOOOO important… but I’m not sure the rest of America cares (Exhibit A – This Summer’s BO). In this age of instant information, people see something that looks and sounds good. Reviews have been ho-hum on Blair Witch. No one above 35 cares to see the same story they already saw and no teenager is going to see something because there was something by the same name out 15 years ago.
I know America is stupid… but not that stupid. Perhaps the beancounters in Hollywood will realize this one day.
Sad to say but America is that stupid. Look at the two candidates for president.
Agree with that! Though when it comes to sequels and remakes the audience has finally gotten smart. Hollywood hasn’t. Stop with remakes and sequels, and produce good NEW films.
Wow, another flop for Open Road! How many dismal openings do Regal and AMC need to realize that ORF executive team have no clue what they are doing?
Uh, you do realize they won the Oscar for Best Picture only last year!
Fair enough, but even Spotlight is one of the lowest grossing Best Picture winners of all-time. Besides how much good will can that give you when you have so many wide release flops? Rock The Kasbah, The Loft, Little Boy, The Gunman, Fifty Shades of Black, Triple 9, Dope and Mother’s Day just to name a few…
You do realize Mother’s Day grossed over 32 at Domestic BO and made over 7 Mil profit for the studio right? What you (and everyone else) has to realize is that it’s the financiers taking the hit on the movies you just named not the studio. Of the films you made, Open Road was involved in the financing of only 1 or 2. Their model is to acquire films cheaply, release them with modest marketing spends, and easily recoup the P & A. I can’t expect someone who’s clearly never worked at a studio to understand the economics but you all should at least try a wee bit harder before coming into the comments with such misplaced snark.
Men Lie. Women Lie. Numbers don’t!
According to SEC filings, AMC has invested $10 million in Open Road and is carrying a loss beyond that of $2 million, while Regal has invested $20 million and is reporting a loss of $7.5 million.
@Vlad You clearly don’t understand basic financial terms. Carrying a loss means they have that much invested in the company that they have not recouped. For example Regal invested 20 mil total and have pulled around 13 mil out to date therefore have 7 mil still in that’s not recouped yet. They could very easily sell their 50% stake in the company for around 40-50mil meaning they would end the 4.5 year investment up over 30 mil profit at the very least.
@jonesdylanst@gmail.com You clearly are employed by or affiliated with Open Road Films. I have no vested interest in the performance of this company. I don’t need one to comprehend that they have provided no return on investment for either AMC or Regal. I cam simply use public information such as SEC filings to support my comment. Every year AMC and Regal release this thing called a 10-K which breaks down the loss that they take on Open Road.
The basis of your comment is that ORF is somehow valued at 80M – 100M. What assets does ORF have that comes close to supporting that type of valuation? In 2014, they reported a net earnings loss of 15.2M and 29.7M in 2015. From the looks of it, 2016 will be more of the same.
@Vlad you are mistaken. The library of films from the past 5 years would be valued at over 30M for their continued home entertainment earnings alone. Regal and AMC both take a FMP or a founding partners fee, every year. They have NEVER invested a single cent after their initial joint $40 million investment, which is what the financial filings will tell you. They each have about $10 million invested in the company that hasn’t been recouped. Even just taking the value of their 5 year library titles (at least $30 Million) and splitting that between AMC and Regal you have 15 million each, more than enough to recoup all of their money. And that is not accounting for the value of their foreign output deals, deals with showtime, deal unviersal etc. that would result in a valuation of at least $80Million on an open market. You don’t seem to understand basic terms such as an FMP, or the valuation of an output deal, so what exactly makes you qualified to speak on the valuation of a film studio?
@jonesdylanst@gmail.com None of your comments address the fact that Open Road Films has provided no return on investment for either AMC or Regal. Much of what you said is either irrelevant (FMP) or based on absurd hypothetical valuations. Unlike Relativity Media prior to bankruptcy, ORF can’t hide behind inflated valuations of their assets. AMC and Regal report their cumulative losses from ORF in their respective annual reports. The home entertainment earnings you noted are accounted for under assets in this thing called a balance sheet. If a third party decided to purchase the film library for 30M (I mean who doesn’t want the rights to Rock the Kasbah and The Gunman), AMC and Regal would still not recoup their initial investment because of the current 59.7M members’ equity deficit. AMC and Regal did not invest a “single cent” into ORF after their initial investment because they secured ORF a 100M revolving credit facility with a lender group. The only asset not currently accounted for to support your illogical 80M valuation is the foreign output deals secured by FilmNation. Any valuation of those deals would require assumptions on content that has not been released (Sleepless Night etc.). Based on ORF’s lackluster box office performance in the US, I would hold no optimism for these deals producing revenue streams that support an 80M valuation for ORF. You don’t seem to have basic reading comprehension skills, but I guess that qualifies you to work at ORF.
Actually their last wide release did over 32M domestic on a less than 25M P&A spend and was very profitable… and two wide releases before that was Spotlight which did over 45M Domestic on a 25M spend. I don’t usually expect much financial accuracy in a Deadline comments section but c’mon now, think before you type.
Wow, it must be really bad when you can only cherry pick Spotlight and Mother’s Day over the last couple of years to prove your point. Mother’s Day only made 8M opening wknd at over 3,000 theatres. That is a FLOP! The 25M you mentioned is only production budget and does not include P&A, which once added to production cost makes the film unprofitable. ORF does not carry production cost since they simply distribute but c’mon now, think before you type.
I’m going to try explaining this once more. Mother’s day did over 32 Million domestic (a 4X multiple on its opening weekend). That is not a flop. I know for a FACT that Open Road made over 7M profit on the movie after marketing costs. You have to learn about the deals distributors make. ALL of their money comes out first, well before the financiers see a dime. End Of Watch, The Grey, Nightcrawler, Spotlight, Nut Job, Mothers Day, Homefront, all made more than 5 million profit, and nut job made 20. You have clearly never worked at a studio so I don’t know why you are trying to comment on the economics of one. You can’t just look at the gross of a movie and determine how much profit was made. Homefront grossed only $20 Mil domestic but made over 6 Mil profit for Open Road because they only spent around 15 marketing it and it was huge on Home Entertainment. Love it when people who have never worked at a studio or in the business at all try and comment on these matters, it cracks me up.
Presumably the theaters took a decent percentage of HOMEFRONT’s $20 million box office gross before anything went to the distributors. And Universal, which handles home entertainment for Open Road, no doubt took a good portion of that money. If Open Road spent $15 million marketing HOMEFRONT, on top of acquisition costs, it’s hard to see where that $6 million profit came from.
So if the financiers lose money, while Open Road, allegedly, makes it, then why would any financier agree to let Open Road distribute their movies?
@Annonymous because that is how the movie business works. Financiers are generally at much greater risk than distributors. If the financier’s have done their jobs well and sold off foreign territories by % of the budget, then they will likely only be facing a couple million $ risk from domestic gross. The couple Million $ they need to get into profit can either be covered by an MG, or if no studio is willing to pay an MG for domestic, a % of box office receipts, after the studio’s P & A is recouped. That is how financiers make their money back, by selling off foreign territories, sometimes there is no gap against domestic, and sometimes there is a large one. That is how the film business works, I’m sorry if i can’t explain it any better than that.
As much as I’m pulling for Open Road and have enjoyed many of their films, the unfortunate fact is they’ve had a pretty dire last couple of years at the box office. Of the nine films they’ve had gross over $30 million, only two of them opened in 2015 or 2016. They need another THE GREY sooner rather than later.
Speak for yourself Jeff. A $32 million gross on a $25 million P @ A budget would not even yield a profit. Cute story, though.
You’ve clearly never worked at a studio, so what would make you qualified to make such a determination? Open Road didn’t finance mother’s day, all they spent was 25M on P&A. And ALL of that 25M came out first, that is how a deal with a distributor works. After Film Rental and Home Entertainment, the 25M is easily recouped, then Open Road earns a significant fee on every dollar after that 25M is recouped. From the people I talked to at Open Road, they will have ended up making around 6-7M profit off Mother’s Day when it is all said and done.
Bro, let it go! I work at Open Road and everyone knows Mother’s Day was a disaster.
Snowden was a great film and the critics who are hating on it have an uninformed political agenda. Go watch it with an open mind, listen to the facts and judge for yourself than listening to retarded critics. It was a very very impressive film.
Snowden is a traitor and unpleasant person. People don’t care to sit for 2 hours and root for him to steal those documents and to escape to Russia and shake hands with Putin. And now he sits in Russia and whines that he doesn’t like it there and begs Obama to pardon him so he could return to USA. Only in american prison.
Correct. Regardless of the story, I won’t pay to watch a movie that may make a hero out of a person like that. Whether I agree with what the NSA is doing or not, it is not his right to break the law.
So of course you won’t be voting for Hillary.
You know: the law-breaker.
Is it considered normal to rely on a movie to obtain “facts”? If so – then I have to say – I am going to need to reconsider my next trip to the seaside in light of the “facts” I learned watching Jaws.
Let alone what “facts” I learned in the original Blair Witch.
When a movie is based on facts like SNOWDEN is…yeah, I’d say it is considered normal.
I know! I just watched a movie based on facts and it was fascinating. Something about Area 51.
OMG….Blair Witch was horrible. Takes a giant dump on the first film. Just pointless.
I was really impressed by Eddie Murphy in Mr. Church this weekend.
How does Tom Ortenberg and his team at Open Road keep surviving all of these flops. This ship is sinking faster than the Titanic. At least Sophie Cassidy swam to shore.
Yeah, I agree. These movies they keep releasing are pathetic and bomb at the box office without fail!
Lol Open Road was started with $40 million in capital, 20 each from Regal and AMC, a shockingly low amount for a studio to begin with, and have turned into a company worth around $100mil. If OpenRoad were to be sold to a third party investor it would fetch around 90-100Mil meaning Regal and AMC would each make around 25-30 mil if they were to cash out now. The level of ignorance surrounding film business economics from people who have never worked for a studio is truly astounding.
If you believe that Open Road is worth $100 Million, I have this beach house that I could sell you in Idaho.
Blair Witch is getting terrible reviews. Basically same exact movie as the 1999 film only crappier. Gee, we haven’t see that from sequels/reboots lately.
Bridget Jones 3?? Another sequel that nobody asked. The last one came out in 12 years ago.
Snowden bombing is no surprise.
And FINDING NEMO came out 13 years ago. Check and mate.
Uh, not quite. People were generally anxious about that sequel. No one wanted another Bridget Jones or Blair Witch, especially so many years after the previous entry had come out. So more like checkers than chess that comparison was…you jumped too soon there mate.
Nope. The prior commenter was explicit in his belief that it opened softly because the last one was 12 years ago. If it failed to deliver, that wasn’t the reason.
Nope. Thierry main point was it was an unwanted sequel. It just happened that the previous entry came out so many years ago. People had wanted a sequel to Nemo for years. So, if anything, the wait built up more excitement. So, again, you’re weong. Just accept it.
I accept nothing from people who can’t spell.
You don’t have to except it from me.You just have accept that you’re wrong. And the typos are from typing too quickly on a cell phone, which automatically changes words as we all know and the lack of an edit button to alter those errors. Really a poor feature of these comments. But still, you’re wrong. Plain and simple.
Yep but people wanted a sequel to Finding Nemo.
People also “wanted” SNAKES ON A PLANE…until it actually opened. If people really followed through on stated desires, the number of movies that lose money would be significantly lower.
Not even close. Every family with kids owns three copies of FINDING NEMO and watch it religiously. Go back to checkers.
And every family had copies of the Chipmunk movies and the ICE AGE movies, but that didn’t prevent the latest entries from arriving DOA. Stop pretending you understand this business; you’re out of your league.
Yikes…how did the estimate for BLAIR WITCH go from $17.2 million to $9.3 million? Just goes to show you can’t trust those early numbers…
Joseph Gordon Levitt. Not a movie star.
No, but not a bad actor. He is not the problem with that picture.
Bridget Jones is having a baby at 47? Cool.
Exactly! This film should have been about Bridget Jones’ grand baby. In that regard Bridget having too much plastic surgery, her British beau having a pacemaker, and McDreamy not being with Meredith would have been easier to accept mentally.
Sully is not the reason why Bridget Jones’s Baby bombs. It bombs because this is sequel no one asked for and wanted. Hope budget was not too big.
Snowden went as weak as that Julian Assange movie. No one wants to see and root for traitors that steal documents. Not to mention they both seem like really unpleasant people in interviews. No matter what actor Hollywood will cast – public don’t care to root for them. And movies bomb.
Not every story needs to have movie. These days Hollywood is making movie out of every news story basically.
Your second paragraph says it all. We get it, why doesn’t Hollywood?
Is it their political motivation?
Typical nativist thinking–only the U.S. matters. The Bridget Jones movies, like those with Johnny English and Nanny McPhee, are British pictures, and make their money in the United Kingdom and other Commonwealth nations. Whatever they get out of America is just gravy. In fact, BABY has already made back its negative cost in only three days in just 24 countries, making profitability a near certainty.
Meanwhile Suicide Squad is still hanging in the top ten. Not bad for a movie this site said had no legs.
Nope…if Friday the 13th’s Jason or Freddy Krueger were in Blair Witch the movie would have been far better …u can bet on it!
How is Blair Witch still a thing to warrant sequel just like ID:R this year? Its a one time gimmick that people stupidly fell for back in ’99 and that’s it.
Suicide Squad in week 7 down only 28%, Pete’s Dragon down only 29% in week 6 and Kubota down only 28% in week 5. All extremely impressive holds for films so late in runs with a slew of new films out there. In fact, if neither film had shed any theatres they would have all made equal to last week’s total. Definitely great legs for all 3.
Lionsgate is a mess! Next up is the 156 million budgeted Deepewater Horizon movie, yikes!
This witch burning reference really is not appropriate here…
True. They don’t have a stake in it.
Glad my dollars went to Bridget Jones. Laughter is good for the soul and that was great fun.
the first Blair witch was not a movie I enjoyed, the second was a lot better but it’s not a franchise that I even cared to see.
Who would want to see Sully? Didn’t the whole incident take about 15 minutes? Plane goes up, planes comes down, splash, the end.
P.S. More like The Bait’n’ Switch Project. That one was an overrated hype the first time around. Not scary, just motion-sickness-inducing…handheld camcorder video blown up on a multiplex screen. Yuck.
Clearly you didn’t see it, or you wouldn’t be asking this question. Sour grapes, much?
My biggest problem with ‘Sully’ (and Sully’s, too) is that it paints the NTSB as villains looking for a scapegoat. The NTSB has a stellar reputation around the world (one of the few US government organizations that does). Even Sully says that they were kind and cooperative in their investigation. For Eastwood to feel that he had to add conflict to the plot is just ridiculous. It puts a mark against the NTSB that is unwarranted. Evidently, he doesn’t think an already good story told well would sell.
Eastwood has become an anti-government ideolog. Obviously his movies do well and he doesn’t need my money, but he’s left a bad taste in my mouth since his chair performance at the RNC. His Trump-love is equally gross.
For that matter, why would anyone go see superhero movies? Bad guys show up and destroy things, superheroes defeat them. The end.
I actually liked Blair Witch, but I knew it was in trouble when I was the only person in the 400-plus seat theatre I saw it in yesterday.
I wanted to go see Bridgette Jones but surprisingly its not playing near me.