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Oscar Prediction Smackdown: Deadline's Pete Hammond And Gold Derby's Tom O'Neil Talk Front-Runners, BAFTA Results & All Those 'Room' Upset Theories

With only a few days left until polls close on Tuesday at 5 PM PT for this year’s Oscar voting, Gold Derby’s Tom O’Neil and I take another whack at trying to make sense of the race now that we have heard from all the major guild and voting groups — particularly last Sunday’s BAFTA results. The Pete Hammond badgeBAFTA outcome favored The Revenant with five key wins overall including Best Picture and Director, following earlier tea leaf-dispensing organizations like the DGA and the Golden Globes which also got behind the film. We go at it in assessing the importance of the BAFTA verdict from a group that supposedly has about 500 of the same members in common with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts andgold-derby Sciences (but as I point out to Tom, how many of them really voted in BAFTA this year could be a factor in determining how predictive they might be).

We also talk about how the impact of preferential voting for Best Picture at the Oscars could be a game-changer over groups like BAFTA and DGA, which have a straight up-and-down ballot. And once again, now that the New York Times has joined in on the speculation, I throw out my theories on how a little film like Room could come in and upset the whole thing if a true split among the front-runners occurs.

Watch our latest Oscar Prediction Smackdown above. Enjoy!

  1. I have a real problem with these ‘speculative’ vlogs. Since the Academy is as old and as white as it currently is – I can see some / many of them watching these discussions and forgoing quality in favor of just voting for the most popular. Much like a beauty pageant where talent often takes a back seat to physical beauty. I fear that these dialogues make the job too easy for the voters by putting the thought in the back of their mind to vote for what others have voted for just to be part of the ‘in crowd’.
    You were right to state that all these speculative vlogs and pre-Oscar award shows have created an unwarranted influence on the voters.

  2. Maybe, maybe not. I tend to think they have a little more going on in their heads than that. Being older doesn’t necessarily make them stupid by a long shot. Being white and older might prejudice them some but in general AMPAS represents much of Hollywood, which tends towards more liberal causes, with a few pockets of resistance here and there.

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