8TH WRITETHRU, Tuesday update, charts updated: The 3-day revise on Deadpool is now $132.4M with 4-day finally clocking $152.2M for the Presidents’ Day holiday. Global debut: $284.5M all in. Countless records were broken here. As we saw all along, Deadpool easily flogged Fifty Shades of Grey‘s opening figures from last year ($85.1M FSS, $93M FSSM).  But, Deadpool was also the biggest opening ever for an R-rated movie on a 3-day basis beating Matrix Reloaded‘s $91.8M, but it also tore apart Hangover 2‘s four-day take of $117.6M. For Fox executives, Deadpool is the biggest opening they’ve ever seen, surpassing Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (FSS $108.4M). In addition, the studio already has $100M+ grossing 2016 releases under its belt along with The Revenant and DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 3, and February isn’t even over yet.

But how did Deadpool set the B.O. on fire? Fox conservatively projected the weekend for this R-rated supehero movie in the $60M-$65M range last week. Rival distribution chiefs had the Marvel anti-hero film as high as $80M. But even they were off.

As we saw with the surprise then-all-time record opening of Jurassic World last June, when it comes to record openings and tracking, the statistical sampling is small, making it hard for industry chiefs to predict. There was a little bit of that going on with Deadpool. 

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An R-rated supehero movie in the dead of winter blowing the top off the B.O. is highly unusual. That’s why projections were so low on Deadpool. The last R-rated comic book properties to play the first quarter of the year were Warner Bros. Watchmen ($55.2M opening) in 2009 and 300 ($70.9M) in 2007. Given Deadpool‘s strong tracking, if the film was rated PG-13, that would have prompted estimates to be in the $125M-$150M range.

“An R-rated superhero film like this had never been done before. And when it’s never been done before, it’s hard to comp and predict. You’re doing something that’s never been done. It’s like you throw the rulebook out the window,” said Fox domestic distribution chief Chris Aronson on Deadpool’s tracking.

“That R gave everyone pause for concern,” said one rival distribution insider this morning, “Then throw in Valentine’s Day on Sunday and a holiday Monday and it is really hard to predict. We all knew it would be great but calling a performance this strong is just not possible.”

ComScore reports a record Presidents’ day weekend for all films with $240M over 3-days, beating last year’s $214M, and an anticipated $275M over four-days. The Valentine’s Day  box office racked up $85M; Deadpool repped 50% of the day’s business. Still that’s not a record as last year’s Valentine’s, which fell on a Saturday, drew $96.6M. The holiday was like having another Saturday on the schedule with the top 10 titles seeing hikes over Saturday of +2%-+28%. Goosing the box office even further money-wise was the fact that football is over, and that’s always a bane for distrib chiefs on Sunday morning. Most top 10 films today are expected to see declines ranging from -25% to -70% when compared to their Sunday tills.

Even though Deadpool carried a low production cost for a comic book film of $58M, it was definitely a gamble. Remember Lionsgate’s critically acclaimed 2010 film Kick Ass? That comic book property, which also was an anarchistic send-up of the superhero genre, was predicted to be a surprise spring hit opening to $30M at the time, but it fell on its face during its first weekend with $19.8M and a final domestic of $48M. Why did that ultra violent comic book film fizzle and Deadpool overpower? Essentially as a Marvel brand, Deadpool is more popular with a significant groundswell coming from a popular Activision video game and a strong presence on social media. Not to mention, audiences are responding to Ryan Reynolds’ transcending turn as Deadpool (47% cited the actor as the main reason why they bought tickets this weekend).  Forty-one percent of all moviegoers told ComScore’s PostTrak that they were planning to see this movie well before they left for the theater this weekend. Fandango reported that Deadpool was their highest February advance ticket seller.

While the assumption is that rival distribution executives always like to snark on the competition, this morning they were in complete awe at Fox’s success.  One marketing executive applauded Fox’s unconventional marketing campaign and its ability to pull a good portion of women to Deadpool. Another suit got to the heart of the matter as to why Deadpool is truly resonating: “The film has a self-deprecating tone that’s riotous. It’s never been done before. It’s poking fun at Marvel. That label takes itself so seriously, can you imagine them making fun of themselves in a movie? They’d rather stab themselves.” (X-Men and Deadpool film rights were sold to Fox years ago; thus falling outside the Disney Marvel empire).

Guardians of the Galaxy director James Gunn took issue with that quote on Monday morning, taking to Facebook to respond, “Come the fuck on! That’s no reason to rewrite history.” Gunn’s explanation for Deadpool‘s box office phenomenon was that “it was original” and that studios, rather than come up with reasons for why a film succeeded and then copy it, should just give moviegoers, “something they don’t already have.”

In sum, the anti-superhero movie, complete with nudity and bawdy jokes, drew an A CinemaScore and a 97% excellent/very good PostTrak score. The latter polling org also stated that 52% of all moviegoers felt that Deadpool met their expectations while another 45% said it exceeded them. Amazing. Fox’s final read on 3-day demos are as follows: 62% guys, 38% female with 53% over 25. Top theaters included NY, LA, Atlanta, San Francisco, San Antonio, San Diego with Orlando and Seattle overindexing. Boston came in lower than expected, however Canada repped close to 8% of the weekend’s business with his great since there’s no holiday today there.

“In a way it’s similar to The Revenant: We’ve taken a seemingly familiar genre and turned it upside down in an incredibly creative way that audiences really responded to,” said Aronson about Deadpool‘s success.

*****Other weekend box office news ********

Other Deadpool February records: Highest opening day of $47.3M,  second highest with Sunday grossing $42.59M, third highest day with $42.5M on Saturday and the highest Monday ever with $19.76M.

Typically fanboy films are frontloaded, seeing drops of at least a third in their second day. Deadpool dipped -10% on Saturday. PLF screens at 465 repped 13% of Deadpool‘s FSS or $17.6M. Four-day figures are at $19.5M. That’s the biggest R-rated opening for the PLF format, knocking out its previous $8.7M high from American Sniper. Imax is tabulating a February and R-rated record of $16.8M over FSS and $18.4M over FSSM. Deadpool is also the second best opening ever for the first installment of a superhero property behind Disney/Marvel’s The Avengers ($207.4M). 

TOP SUPERHERO MOVIE OPENINGS

(FIRST INSTALLMENTS)
Thumb Rank Film Distributor Release Opening Weekend
1 Marvel’s The Avengers Disney 5/4/12 $207.4M
2 Deadpool Fox 2/12/16 $132.4M
3 Man of Steel WB 6/14/13 $116.6M
4 Spider-man Sony 5/3/02 $114.8M
5 Iron Man Par 5/2/08 $98.6M
6 Guardians of the Galaxy Disney 8/1/14 $94.3M

Fox also owns the No. 2 spot with DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 3 which drew $8.3M on Sunday,  +8% over Saturday. FSS is now $19.8M and a FSSM of $26M. Pic will stand with $100.3M by the end of Monday.

In the battle between female skewing females — WB/MGM/New Line’s How to Be Single and Paramount’s Zoolander 2 — the Warner Bros. R-rated female ensemble comedy comes out on top in third place overall. However, in the end, the raunchy femme ensemble also got bit by Deadpool coming in hairs below its $20M 4-day projection with a final $17.9M and $19.9M over four days. Business was up on Sunday by 12% over Saturday. Production cost on HTBS was $38M. Older females took up the most movie seats here. Sometimes when Warner Bros. has the right romantic comedy counterprogramming, they can siphon adults away. Almost.

Warner Bros.’ one-up over Zoolander 2 stems from the studio hitting a very specific demo head on — older females —  in their materials and TV spots (IspotTV estimates a $21M spend) and getting them in the door. Warners spread that money around the big 4 networks as well as femme-skewing channels like Bravo and E!. By comparison, Paramount’s Z2 was vying for women in its fashion themes and those men who may still be fans of Derek Zoolander 15 years later.

Deadpool might have nipped HTBS, but he caused some major pain for Z2 with the comedy sequel falling far behind its expected $20M range 4-day with a final $13.8M over FSS and $15.9M over FSSM.  Z2‘s 3-day is  lower than part 1’s $15.5M September 2001 opening.  Anchorman 2 (FSS $26.2M) was the comp heading into the weekend, but let’s face facts: Zoolander was never Anchorman. It’s a cult comedy, which drew a little more than half of Anchorman‘s $85.2M domestic B.O. .

z2 valentinoParamount was relentless about promoting Z2, capitalizing on its fashion angle, particularly overseas. There was a London fan day as well as Owen Wilson and Ben Stiller posing in the storefront of Valentino’s Rome store. The duo even hit the Valentino fashion show in character drawing close to 1M views on YouTube. There were a series of Zoolander Bitmojis released in conjunction with the NYC premiere, and digital Valentine’s Day cards too. Before the teaser dropped in November for Z2, the pic’s cameo star Justin Bieber Zoolander 2gave a shoutout on Instagram to Derek Zoolander’s handle. Relishmix graded Z2‘s reach as exceptional with a universe of 914M, with strong activity and a good hashtag turnout. The social media monitor noticed that other social stars from Kim Kardashian West to Miley Cyrus were mixed into this huge SMU, which is composed of 329M Facebook fans, 275M Twitter followers, 257M Instagram followers and 53M YouTube views. However, despite this large total, the sequel is challenged by a predominantly non-activated cast. Nonetheless, I’m told the cast worked it other ways by showing up in character at a slew of events; they weren’t just junketing.

Beiber (207.3M followers) posted some Zoolander clips to his Facebook page weeks ago that received hundreds of thousands of hits.  But he’s been shy about tubthumping the film recently other than a shout-out to Stiller, apologizing for missing the premiere.  Co-star Will Ferrell has a robust social following with 24M, but that’s mostly from FunnyOrDie. Wilson, Kristin Wiig and Penelope Cruz are not at all social. Stiller counts 8.4M across FB and Twitter.

The final box office per ComScore for Feb. 12-15, 2016:

1). Deadpool (FOX), 3,558 theaters /3-day cume: $132.4M /3-day Pre screen average: $37,222 /4-day: $152.2M/ Wk 1

2). Kung Fu Panda 3 (DWA/FOX), 3,844 theaters (-143) / 3-day cume: $19.8M (-7%)3-day per screen: $5,139 /4-day: $25.9M/Total cume: $100.2M/ Wk 3

3). How To Be Single (WB/MGM/New Line), 3,343 theaters / 3-day cume: $17.9M /3-day per screen: $5,348 /4-day: $19.9M/ Wk 1

4). Zoolander 2 (PAR), 3,343 theaters /3-day cume: $13.8M /3-day per screen: $4,078 /4-day: $15.9M/ Wk 1

5). The Revenant (FOX), 2,266 theaters (-752) / 3-day cume: $6.5M (-6%) /3-day per screen: $2,880 /4-day: $7.58M/ Total cume: $159.8M / Wk 8

6). Hail, Caesar! (UNI), 2,248 theaters (+16)  /3-day cume: $6.4M (-44%) /3-day per screen: $2,845 /4-day: $7.4M/ Total cume: $22.1M / Wk 2

7). Star Wars: The Force Awakens (DIS), 1,810 theaters (-452) /3-day cume: $6.2M (-12%)/3-day per screen: $3,403 /4-day: $7.6M/ Total cume: $916.3M / Wk 9

8).  The Choice (LG), 2,631 theaters (0) / 3-day cume: $5.2M (-14%)/3-day per screen: $1,984 /4-day: $5.8M/Total cume: $13.8M/ Wk 2

9). Ride Along 2 (UNI), 1,564 theaters (-608) /3-day cume: $4.5M (-2%) /3-day per screen: $2,851 /4-day: $5.1M/ Total cume: $83.6M / Wk 5

10). The Boy (STX), 1,450 theaters (-764) / 3-day cume: $3.1M (-23%) /3-day per screen: $2,166 /4-day: $3.6M/Total cume: $31.1M/ Wk 4

11). The Finest Hours (DIS), 1,794 theaters (-1,349) / 3-day cume: $2.72M (-44%) /3-day per screen: $1,514 /4-day: $3.2M/Total cume: $23.8M/ Wk 3

12). The 5th Wave (SONY), 1,444 theaters (-902) /3-day cume: $2.7M (-28%)/ 3-day per screen: $1,871 /4-day: $3.3M/Total cume: $30.1M / Wk 4

13). Pride and Prejudice and Zombies (SONY), 2,931 theaters  (0)/3-day cume: $2.6M (-52%)/ 3-day per screen: $874 /4-day: $3M/Total cume: $9.9M/ Wk 2

14). Dirty Grandpa (LGF), 1,612 theaters (-955) /3-day cume:  $2.2M (-45%)/3-day per screen: $1,388 /4-day: $2.5M / Total cume: $33.4M /Wk 4

15). 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi (PAR), 932 theaters (-1,127) /3-day cume: $1.5M (-47%) / 3-day per screen: $1,636 /4-day:$1.8M / Total cume: $50.7M / Wk 5

16). The Big Short (PAR), 535 theaters (-325)  / 3-day cume: $1.3M (-21%) /3-day per screen: $2,514 /4-day: $1.6M Total cume: $65.9M /Wk 10

17). Brooklyn (FSL), 495 theaters (-208) / 3-day cume: $1.1M (-8%)/ 3-day per screen: $2,199 /4-day: $1.3M/ Total cume: $34.3M/ Wk 15

18). Daddy’s Home (PAR), 532 theaters (-486) / 3-day cume: $1M (-30%)/ 3-day per screen: $1,947 /4-day: $1.25M/ / Total cume: $146.9M / Wk 8

19). Where to Invade Next (DRAFT), 308 theaters /3-day cume: $897K /3-day per screen: $2,912 /4-day: $1.15M/ Wk 1

20). Spotlight (OR), 455 theaters (-213) /3-day cume: $699K (-16%) /3-day per screen: $1,536 /4-day: $852K/ Total cume: $37.4M / Wk 15

Final notables:

Fitoor (UTV), 148 theaters /3-day cume: $347K /3-day per screen: $2,346 /4-day: $393K/ Wk 1

Dough (MF), 9 theaters /3-day cume: $51K /3-day per screen: $5,652 /4-day: $51K/ Wk 1

Touched With Fire (RSA), 6 theaters /3-day cume: $17K /3-day per screen: $2,803 /4-day: $17K/ Wk 1

New Year’s Eve Of Old Lee (Guo Nian Hao) (CLE), 6 theaters /3-day cume: $16K /3-day per screen: $2,586 /4-day: $19K/ Wk 1

Already Tomorrow In Hong Kong (GRAV), 11 theaters /3-day cume: $15K /3-day per screen: $2,1361 /4-day: $15K/ Wk 1

A War (MAG), 5 theaters /3-day cume: $9K /3-day per screen: $1,819/4-day: $19K/ Wk 1

Beauty And The Beast (1946) (JANUS), 1 theaters /3-day cume: $8K /4-day: $10K/ Wk 1

Mountains May Depart (KINO) 1 theaters /3-day cume: $6K /4-day: $7K/ Wk 1

For comparison purposes: The updated top 10 studio estimates as of Monday morning per Amanda N’Duka for the weekend of Feb. 12-15, 2016 (for a full report on Specialty box office, go here):

1). Deadpool (FOX), 3,558 theaters / $47.45M Fri. */ $42.6M Sat. (-10%) / $42.685M Sun. (+0%)/$17.25M Mon. (-60%)/ 3-day cume: $132.75M/4-day: $150M/ Wk 1
*includes $12.7M Thursday previews

2). Kung Fu Panda 3 (DWA/FOX), 3,844 theaters (-143) / $3.9M Fri. /$7.7M Sat. (+100%) / $8.3M Sun. (+8%)/$6.2M Mon. (-25%)/ 3-day cume: $19.8M (-7%)/4-day: $26M/Total cume: $100.3M/ Wk 3

3). How To Be Single (WB/MGM/New Line), 3,394 theaters / $5.25M Fri.** /$6M Sat. (+14%) / $7.5M Sun. (+25%)/ 3-day cume: $18.75M/4-day: $20.7M/ Wk 1
**includes $700K Thursday previews

4). Zoolander 2 (PAR), 3,343 theaters / $4.2M Fri. /$4.67M Sat. (+11%) / $5.1M Sun. (+9%)/$2M Monday (-60%)/ 3-day cume: $13.96M/4-day: $16M/ Wk 1
+includes $750K Thursday previews

5). The Revenant (FOX), 2,266 theaters (-752) / $1.3M Fri. /$2.6M Sat. (+102%) / $2.68M Sun. (+3%)/$1.2M Mon. (-55%)/ 3-day cume: $6.6M (-4%) /4-day: $7.8M/ Total cume: $160M / Wk 8

6). Star Wars: The Force Awakens (DIS), 1,810 theaters (-452) / $1.2M Fri. /$2.5M Sat. (+107%) / $2.54M Sun. (+1%)/ $1.37M (-46%)/3-day cume: $6.2M (-11%)/4-day: $7.6M/ Total cume: $916.26M / Wk 9

7). Hail, Caesar! (UNI), 2,248 theaters (+16)  / $1.48M Fri. /$2.5M Sat. (+69%) / $2.39M Sun. (-4%)/$820K Mon. (-66%)/  3-day cume: $6.38M (-44%) /4-day: $7.2M/ Total cume: $22M / Wk 2

8). The Choice (LG), 2,631 theaters (0) / $1.1M Fri. /$2M Sat. (+71%) / $2.12M Sun. (+6%)/$735K Mon. (-65%)/ 3-day cume: $5.2M (-13%)/4-day: $6M/Total cume: $14M/ Wk 2

9). Ride Along 2 (UNI), 1,564 theaters (-608) / $821K Fri. /$1.6M Sat. (+97%) / $2.06M Sun. (+28%)/$500K Mon. (-75%)/ 3-day cume: $4.5M (-1%) /4-day: $5M/ Total cume: $83.6M / Wk 5

10). The Boy (STX), 1,450 theaters (-764) / $633K Fri. /$1.13M Sat. (+79%) / $1.4M Sun. (+24%)/$420K Mon. (-90%)/( 3-day cume: $3.16M (-23%) /4-day: $3.58M/Total cume: $31.4M/ Wk 4

Notables:

Pride and Prejudice and Zombies (SONY), 2,931 theaters  (0)/ $572K Fri. /$921K Sat. (+61%) / $1M Sun. (+9%)/ 3-day cume: $2.5M (-53%)/4-day: $2.8M/Total cume: $9.7M/ Wk 2

Where to Invade Next (DRAFT), 308 theaters / $255K Fri. /$332K Sat. (+30%) / $346M Sun. (+4%)/ 3-day cume: $933K/4-day: $1M/ Wk 1

Fitoor (UTV), 147 theaters / $94K Fri. /$114K Sat. (+21%) / $127M Sun. (+11%)/$85k Mon. (-33%)/ 3-day cume: $335K/4-day: $420K/ Wk 1

The Little Prince (EONE), 55 theaters / $37K Fri. /$64K Sat. (+73%) / $42K Sun. (-35%)/ 3-day cume: $143K/4-day: $157K/ Wk 1

OSCAR NOMS:

 The Big Short (PAR), 535 theaters (-325)  / $285K Fri. /$557K Sat. (+95%) / $510K Sun. (-8%)/ 3-day cume: $1.35M (-21%) /4-day: $1.55M Total cume: $65.9M /Wk 10

Brooklyn (FSL), 495 theaters (-208) / $230K Fri. /$430K Sat. (+87%) / $425K Sun. (-1%)/$180K Mon. (-58%)/ 3-day cume: $1.09M (-5%)/4-day: $1.27M/Total cume: $34.2M/ Wk 15

Spotlight (OR), 455 theaters (-213) / $147K Fri. /$287K Sat. (+95%) / $264K Sun. (-8%)/$132K Mon. (-50%)/ 3-day cume: $699K (-10%) /4-day: $831K/ Total cume: $37.2M / Wk 15

 Room (A24), 316 theaters (-315) / $92K Fri. /$172K Sat. (+87%) / $156K Sun. (-9%)/$62K (-60%)/ 3-day cume: $420K (-43%) /4-day: $482K/Total cume: $12.M/ Wk 18

4TH WRITE THRU, Saturday AM update: It is an unprecedented time at the winter box office with 20th Century Fox’s Marvel superhero Deadpool shattering February records with an opening day of $47.5M, a projected 3-day of $118.4M-$123M and a 4-day of $129.6M-$136M.  Such numbers easily annihilate those high bars set by Universal’s Fifty Shades of Grey last year with a $30.3M Friday and $93M four-day holiday weekend. But here we have a comic book adaptation that’s out of the typical summer/holiday season, and it’s blowing away the summer opening highs of more mainstream superhero character pics like Man of Steel (3-day $116.6M) and Spider-Man ($114.8M).

As studios max out on sequels for mainstream superheros, read Spider-Man and Iron Man, the trend is to delve into comic book anthology’s deeper vaults of arguably lesser-known characters and bring them to life on the big screen. Sometimes that’s a risk that doesn’t pay off. Fox failed with its Daredevil spinoff Elektra in 2005 which bottomed out with $24M stateside. Initially, Marvel’s Ant-Man didn’t exactly wow with its $57.2M debut but then the film churned out a 3x multiple of $180.2M stateside with Disney announcing a sequel. Who knew the world was screaming out for a foul-mouthed R-rated anti-hero like Deadpool? 

Simply put, audiences are bewitched by Deadpool‘s  merciless send-up of the Marvel brand, topped by a fair share of nudity, foul-mouthed funny, and fourth-wall breaking. According to social media monitor RelishMix, there’s been a thirst for this character among fans: Outside of the film, there are social media pages dedicated to the comic-book, the Activision video game with a total reach of 587K. Fans are making parody videos dressed as the Reynolds character. Youtube channel Epic Rap Battles has a Deadpool vs. Boba Fett rivalry which has accumulated 18M views, clocking 159K per day.

Among 3-day opening before May, when summer starts, Deadpool will likely rank third behind The Hunger Games ($152.5M) and Furious 7 ($147.2M). Similar to Universal with Fifty Shades of Grey last year which carried a $40M cost, Fox should recoup its $58M production cost before P&A on Deadpool by Monday. Fox has plenty of bragging rights this weekend: Deadpool will be the studio’s third $100M-plus grosser of 2016 after DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 3 (which is poised to cross that mark by Monday) and New Regency’s The Revenant. February isn’t even over yet.

Deadpool is also a huge win for Ryan Reynolds; easily his best opening of all-time. Here’s a guy with an excellent reputation off-set that has been trying to make a go as a marquee name since 2002’s Van Wilder. Reynolds had the deck stacked against him with another superhero movie in 2011,  Warner Bros.’ Green Lantern, which despite its $53M opening was considered a bomb given its $200M production cost. Forty-seven percent of the audience on Friday cited Reynolds as the main reason they showed up, while 59% said it was because Deadpool is a superhero movie.

deadpool line

CinemaScore is an absolute A, not just with all auds, but guys and gals, too. Males showed up in full force at 57% on par with Ant-Man. ComScore PostTrak reports that 88% of moviegoers said they’d recommend Deadpool to a friend. That’s the same recommendation score that Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned during its opening weekend. Further evidence that word of mouth is through the roof: 92% of those polled by PostTrak said they know five friends or family members who would see the movie (Force Awakens scored a 95% in this category). Check out this page’s photo of the line for Deadpool at Edwards Valencia 12 & Imax in Valencia, CA.

For RelishMix, Deadpool‘s social media is more than perfect. The film’s social media universe is weighed at 527M, composed of  25M+ Facebook fans, nearly 2M Twitter followers, 3M Instagram followers and over 496M YouTube views. Reynolds is carrying the torch with 6.3M followers, adding tens of thousands of followers each day. Also, co-star Gina Carano counts 1.3M across Twitter, FB and Instagram.

As previously reported, 76% of PostTrak audiences said that Deadpool was excellent with 19% giving the Tim Miller feature directorial debut a very good. Fourteen percent of Deadpool‘s Friday gross came from PLF screen which grossed $6.4M. Cinemark XD made $1.6M of that figure.

how to be singleDeadpool’s domination is veering its competition off course in regards to their original projections. Warner Bros. release of New Line/MGM’s How to Be Single is now estimated with a Friday of $5.25M,  3-day of $16M-$17M and 4-day of $18M-$20M in third place.  Not bad, but some had it much higher, and it’s getting outflanked by Kung Fu Panda 3 which is projected with a 3-day of $20M and 4-day of $26M. CinemaScore gave the Dakota Johnson-Rebel Wilson-Alison Brie-Leslie Mann ensemble a B on Friday. Huge older female turnout at 82% femmes, 71% over 25. Sixty percent came out because it’s a R-rated raunchy comedy while 39% came out for the four stars.

zoolander 2Since it’s a girls’ choice weekend, HTBS has the upper hand over Paramount’s Zoolander 2 in terms of overall reception. The Ben Stiller sequel is trying to keep its head high in the face of brutal reviews (22% Rotten) with a $4.2M Friday, $13M-$14M 3-day and $15M-$16.5M 4-day in fourth place. That’s below the low $20M FSSM Paramount expected. Even worse, CinemaScore audiences weren’t hip to its fashion on Friday night giving it a C+, the same exact grade they gave the original close to 15 years ago. The sequel’s opening isn’t too far from the $15.5M FSS racked up by that first installment. Some say the best part of Z2 is in the beginning…when Justin Bieber dies. Z2 skewed female at 51%, and they liked the movie better than men, B- to C. Sixty-two percent were 25 and up, and the over 50 set loathed Z2 with a D+. Thirty-four percent came out for Stiller and Owen Wilson; their draw for chapter 1 was double that with 70%. Forty-eight percent arrived at Z2 because they wanted to see a comedy. Essentially the Zoolander fans got a little older, and a bit more female. Per Relish Mix, Justin Bieber’s onscreen demise has been the core discussion on social, but fans are suspicious that Z2 can match the original.

Here’s something to put a smile on Michael Moore’s face while he’s in where to invade nextthe hospital battling pneumonia: His latest documentary Where to Invade Next is set to pull in the biggest limited opening of his career with a FSS of $1M and a FSSM of $1.2M at 308 venues. That’s second, of course, to the $23.9M wide release of 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11, but bests the $231K FSS made by 2009’s Capitalism:A Love Story. Acquired out of the Toronto International Film Festival by former Radius chiefs Tom Quinn and Jason Janego’s unnamed new label, WTIN originally looked at a Dec. 23 opening, than opted for this weekend in the heart of primary season. Drafthouse Films’ Tim League is also distributing the title. A 50-bus tour was planned with Moore, then scrapped due to his health. Moore asked his fans to tubthump on social media.

In regards to Saturday’s business, most films in the top 10 are expected to see a huge lift over Friday between +10%-+110%; except for Deadpool which some have mapped as being front-loaded in the nature of fanboy films. Some predict Deadpool‘s Saturday down by as much as 30%, but we’ll see about that. It is drawing a decent number of women. Sunday is the added bonus for many distributors with the top 10 pics seeing hikes by as much as +5%-25%.

Follow Anthony D’Alessandro on Twitter at @AwardsTony

.The top 11 films per 8:30AM estimates for the Presidents’ Day/Valentine’s Day weekend of Feb. 12-15 as compiled by Deadline’s Amanda N’Duka: 

1). Deadpool (FOX), 3,558 theaters / $47.5M Fri. /3-day cume: $118.4M-$123M/4-day: $129-$136M/ Wk 1

2). Kung Fu Panda 3 (DWA/FOX), 3,844 theaters (-143) / $3.9M Fri. (-25%)/3-day cume: $20M (-6%)/4-day: $26M/Total cume: $100.3M/ Wk 3

3). How To Be Single (WB/MGM/New Line), 3,394 theaters / $5.2M Fri. /3-day cume: $16M-$17M/4-day: $18M-$20M/ Wk 1

4). Zoolander 2 (PAR), 3,343 theaters / $4.2M Fri. /3-day cume: $13M-14M/4-day: $15M-$16.5M/ Wk 1

5). Hail, Caesar! (UNI), 2,248 theaters (+16)  / $1.47M Fri. (-66%) /3-day cume: $6.4M (-43%) /4-day: $7.4M/ Total cume: $22.2M / Wk 2

6). The Revenant (FOX), 2,266 theaters (-752) / $1.3M Fri. (-38%) / 3-day cume: $6.1M (-12%) /4-day: $7M/ Total cume: $159.3M / Wk 8

7). Star Wars: The Force Awakens (DIS), 1,810 theaters (-452) / $1.2M Fri. (-33%) /3-day cume: $6M (-13%)/4-day: $7.5M/ Total cume: $916.1M / Wk 9

8). The Choice (LG), 2,631 theaters (0) / $1.1M Fri. (-54%) /3-day cume: $4.5M (-25%)/4-day:$5.1M/Total cume:$13.1M/ Wk 2

pride and prejudice and zombies9). Ride Along 2 (UNI), 1,564 theaters (-608) / $821K Fri. (-40%) /3-day cume: $4M (-13%) /4-day: $4.6M/ Total cume: $83.1M / Wk 5

10). The Boy (STX), 1,450 theaters (-764) / $630KFri. (-51%)/3-day cume: $2.8M (-31%) /4-day:$3.2M/Total cume: $31.1M/ Wk 4

11). Pride and Prejudice and Zombies (SONY), 2,931 theaters  (0)/ $693K Fri. (-66%) /3-day cume: $2.4M (-55%)/4-day: $2.7M/Total cume: $9.6M/ Wk 2

NOTABLES:

Where to Invade Next (DRAFT), 308 theaters / $253K Fri. /3-day cume: $1M/4-day: $1.2M/Wk 1

The Little Prince (EONE), 55 theaters / $37K Fri. /3-day cume: $159K/4-day: $176K/ Wk 1

OSCAR NOMS:

 The Big Short (PAR), 535 theaters (-325)  / $285K Fri. (-45%) /3-day cume: $1.3M (-22%) /4-day: $1.5M Total cume: $65.9M /Wk 10

Brooklyn (FSL), 495 theaters (-208) / $231K Fri. (-30%) /3-day cume: $1.1M (-4%)/4-day:$1.3M/Total cume:$34.3M/ Wk 15

Spotlight (OR), 455 theaters (-213) / $141K Fri. (-39%) /3-day cume: $690K (-17%) /4-day:$804K/ Total cume: $37.3M / Wk 15

 Room (A24), 316 theaters (-315) / $94K Fri. (-55%)/3-day cume: $435K (-40%) /4-day:$505K/Total cume: $12.1M/ Wk 18

Carol (TWC), 141 theaters  (-95)/ $37K Fri. (-37%) /3-day cume: $178K (-20%)/4-day: $207K/Total cume: $12.1M/ Wk 13

2ND UPDATE: Refresh for updates After blowing away the Thursday preview R-rated record with $12.7M, 20th Century Fox’s Deadpool is now looking at a four-day between $80M-$90M with a Friday that’s in the low $30M range today.  Universal’s Fifty Shades of Grey currently owns the February opening day record of $30.28M, 3-day of $85.2M and 4-day of $93M.

Valentine’s Day is the key day in terms of determining whether Deadpool clicks to a record. It’s a women’s-choice day when it comes to moviegoing, according to one industry tracker. And the holiday Monday is a better kids day than adults day.

Deadpool is in play at 3,558 theaters. Within that count, Deadpool has some extra mojo from 374 Imax and 475 PLF screens.

How to Be Single posterWarner Bros. release of New Line/MGM’s R-rated femme comedy How To Be Single is currently projected to have a FSSM in the mid-to-high $20M at 3,343 sites after collecting $700K last night.

Paramount’s Zoolander 2 isn’t far behind with a four-day projection in the low $20M range at 3,394. Rotten Tomatoes score is a middling 49% rotten for HTBS, while critics are being less kind toward Z2 at 21%.

ZOOLANDER 2Fox’s release of DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 3 is looking at a third weekend that is off 30% for $14.8M raising its cume through Sunday to $89.1M. Last night among regular releases, KFP3 took in $1.03M at 3,987 theaters for a two week cume of $74.3M.

The second frame of Universal’s Hail Caesar! is currently estimated per industry sources to be at $5.7M, off 50% from its $11.36M debut.

Exit polls for Deadpool are through the roof:95 in the top two boxes, 76% say it’s excellent while 19% say very good. A character who co-starred in X-Men Origins: Wolverine — why is everyone so wild about Deadpool?  Says one non-Fox distribution insider, “It’s a party movie! I was at a 10:45PM show in suburbia and it was packed with high schoolers who just wanted to have a good rowdy time on a holiday weekend.” Currently on Rotten Tomatoes, Deadpool has a 84% fresh score.

Deadpool‘s Thursday already beat the $8.6M made by Fifty Shades of Grey, which was the previous February preview champ. That Universal title sat behind the previous R-rated preview record holder, The Hangover Part II, which made $10.4M from midnight shows in 2011. In its first two days overseas in seven markets, Deadpool amassed $12M; so the Ryan Reynolds pic has already bagged over $25M worldwide.

Previous notable R-rated superhero/comic book film openings include Warner Bros’ 300 ($70.9M) and Watchmen ($55.2M).  An opening close to $90M during the second month of the year is uncharted territory for Fox. The studio’s recording opening for February belongs to Marvel’s Daredevil which made $45M in four days in 2003. Last year at this time, Fox counterprogrammed Kingsman: The Secret Service against Fifty Shades of Grey, posting a $41.8M FSSM and final stateside tally of $128.3M.

Deadpool‘s preview night on Imax  pulled in $2.3M, for a per screen of $6,200. That’s the best ever for an Imax February release or R-rated title. The previous best R-rated preview night was Fox’s Prometheus with $1.04M in June 2012, and the previous record holder for a February opener was Jupiter Ascending with $124,703 last year. Premium large format auditoriums rang up $2M, repping 16% of the night’s gross. Cinemark XD was the leading PLF exhibitor with $615K.

deadpoolIf there’s any further indication of how big Deadpool‘s opening might be, Fandango updated its records and reports that the Marvel hero is the ticket firm’s top February seller of all-time, repping 70% of its weekend ticket sales. Deadpool is even outstripping Ant-Man advance ticket sales at the same point in their similar sales cycles. Yesterday, MovieTickets.com reported that close to 70% of its Wednesday ticket sales were for Deadpool. In a Fandango survey, 96% say that Deadpool is part of their weekend plans, while 93% are excited that there’s an R-rated Marvel movie.

20th Century Fox has created a number of edgy promos and events for the film. Of note, one sheet/banner ads have sold the film wryly as a romantic comedy tied to Valentine’s Day. Mike’s Harder Lemonade is a promo partner and has been selling a series of collectible cans. Throughout this week, Deadpool took over five commercial-free Viacom shows with integrated marketing running pre- and-post shows. The shows included during the campaign are MTV’s Teen Mom and Ridiculousness; Comedy Central’s Tosh.0, Workaholics and @Midnight With Chris Hardwick; VH1’s Love and Hip Hop; Logo’s Golden Girls; and Spike’s Cops.

There’s even been these zany PSAs for testicular and breast cancer from Deadpool that were dropped in recent weeks. Have a laugh:

On Monday, X-Men Apocalypse star Olivia Munn (who also stars in this weekend’s Zoolander 2) gave Deadpool a shout-out when she boasted that her sword-wielding mutant was Psylocke could kick Deadpool’s ass.

#Psylocke v. #Deadpool #xmen #apocalypse Right hand left hand sword play

A video posted by Olivia Munn (@oliviamunn) on