7TH UPDATE, Monday 9:10AM: As many predicted, Spectre did not come in at the $73M that Sony reported yesterday, rather lower at $70.4M per their reported actual today. While that opening weekend figure is still the second highest for a 007 title behind Skyfall, one can’t help but notice that Spectre‘s debut is $20.4M less than its predecessor (which made $90.6M including previews) and it’s $2.7M higher than Quantum of Solace. Really, nobody was expecting it to be that low. As we mentioned all weekend, middling reviews are slowing turnstiles for Spectre, plus moviegoers can blatantly see the film isn’t leaving them as floored as Skyfall. 20th Century Fox’s The Peanuts Movie is taking the No. 2 spot for the weekend with an opening that’s $1M shy of what was reported yesterday, $44M. Again, Peanuts was never a threat. It appealed to completely different demo of moms and kids. The thinking was that nostalgic adults would be swayed to go to Peanuts, however Spectre had Peanuts beat in that regard winning over 35% of adults over 50 (to Charlie Brown’s 10%) and 78% over 25 (to 54% over 25).

But there’s a silver lining for Sony, MGM and Eon when it comes to Spectre. Of those film financier sources who Deadline has spoken with, they believe the film will continue to rally abroad as Bond always does, driving this $350M production (that includes P&A) to $800M-$900M global take, possibly even $1 billion global take. Various reports in the media have cited that Sony profited $57M off the record franchise Skyfall $1.1B haul. MGM is reported to receive 75% of the profits on Spectre, while Sony collects 25% after recouping production and ad spend costs. Both MGM and Sony split the production and P&A cost 50/50. MGM controls 007 TV rights and home entertainment, the latter which is distributed through an exclusive deal with 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment.

Despite Spectre falling 37% from Saturday to Sunday with $16.68M — a decline that’s not as steep as Quantum‘s -43%, but steeper than Skyfall‘s Sunday decline of 37% — Sony is looking for a boost midweek from the Veterans Day holiday. In addition, unlike previous Daniel Craig Bonds which faced competition largely from a Twilight film in their second frame, Spectre can rely on the projection that it will hold No. 1 next weekend, hopefully posting a second weekend decline that’s better than Skyfall‘s -54% and Quantum‘s -60%. Next weekend, the only two wide entries are Warner Bros.’ Chile miner disaster pic The 33 and the CBS Films holiday comedy Love the Coopers. 

walkie@gmail.com
9 months
It's a ridiculous question to start with. Of course it's going to be make a profit. It...
9 months
My wife and I stay away from theaters for the first 1 - 2 weeks of release...
joshrandel86@gmail.com
9 months
Sky fall just felt... special. And genius for a Bond film. Spectre... Not so much.

For the final top 20 actuals chart, click here. 

6TH UPDATE, Sunday 8AM: When it comes to Spectre‘s ticket sales, it’s as though Mr. Bond was stuck in quicksand all weekend long. After the industry raised opening weekend expectations for Bond 24 to a fever pitch of $80M by mid-day Friday, projections fell, and continued to fall to the point where Spectre looks like it’s going to make $71M-73M this weekend, which is toward the lower end of what we predicted pre-opening. Sony is reporting $73M this morning, but some rival studio analysts think Spectre could go a bit spectre 3lower. You would think that with an  A- CinemaScore on a tentpole like this, word of mouth would be working to Spectre‘s advantage. And it could be, it’s just that we might not realize the full benefit for a while. Since this is an adult-fan franchise — Spectre alone drew a heavy 78% over 25 — that means the audience might not rush to see the film. They’ll wait for Thanksgiving, even Christmas. Working to Spectre‘s advantage is the fact that there’s not a big tentpole in the market until Nov. 20 when The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 opens. Last time in November 2012, the final Twilight movie stepped on Skyfall‘s toes in its second weekend, yielding a 53% decline.

Overseas, Spectre is faring much better with a worldwide cume at $300M in less than two weeks. When Skyfall opened, it had a three weekend foreign lead on domestic, so by the time domestic opened on Nov. 9-11, 2012, global stood at $598.4M. I’m told that on spectre 10comparative territory by territory basis that Spectre is besting Skyfall‘s opening weekend in Mexico, Southeast Asia and last weekend in the U.K. But the big question as MGM/Eon deliberate which studio they’ll take the 007 franchise to next, is whether Spectre will turn a profit with its less-than-Skyfall grosses off a $375M cost that includes production and P&A. Per Sony insiders and even non-rival film financial analysts, there’s no question Spectre will be in the black. Stateside should bring in at least $250M with foreign making up at least 70% of Spectre‘s total cume with a final global between $900M-$1B. Forty-percent of international has yet to open with China and South Korea going next weekend.

Sony head of worldwide marketing and distribution Josh Greenstein said, “We’re happy with the domestic opening, but we’re really thrilled by the foreign box office. Bond is such a global franchise and Spectre is truly an international and global film. You can see the writing on the wall.” MGM/Eon should take note that ever since Sony took a hold of 007, the last four Craig titles have repped 41% of the franchise’s $6.3B total worldwide gross.

What’s happening stateside is that audiences are obviously conversing that Spectre isn’t as good as Skyfall. Some gripe that Spectre has all the action tropes of its last three movies, while others think the Bond character origin reveals in this film are just too good to be true. Is the franchise damaged? No, but it’s gonna take another dose of Viagra to exceed fans’ expectations as they’re still entranced by Skyfall. Also, something to consider with Spectre: It’s the longest-running title time-wise in the Craig canon at 148 minutes.

Spectre holeLet’s just hope that Spectre, currently the 2nd best domestic debut for Bond behind Skyfall‘s $88.4M, doesn’t sink any further today toward Quantum of Solace ($67.5M) territory which is the least favorite of the Craig 007 titles (with a B- CinemaScore). Sunday NFL games won’t help, as they pry a bulk of guys away. Spectre dipped an estimated 4% from its $28M Friday (second best behind Skyfall‘s $30.5M) to $26.4M; the last time that happened among the Craig titles was with…Quantum. Skyfall, due to its huzzah, spiked 11%, while Casino Royale saw a 5% uptick between Friday and Saturday.

Imax hubs generated $9.1M for Spectre at 374 screens, a $24K+ per screen average. Nine of Spectre‘s top 10 playdates are Imax locations. 429 PLF theaters made $8M repping 11% of Spectre‘s opening. Cinemark XD leads US exhibitors with an estimated gross of $1.85 million in 112 XD locations.

THE PEANUTS MOVIEOver on the Fox lot, they’re doing the Snoopy dance, not just because The Peanuts Movie beat its $40M estimate with a $45M opening, but also because The Martian wasn’t wounded much by Bond, dipping 21% in its 6th frame, just $3M shy of the double century mark at the box office. 27% of Peanuts cash came from 3D. Matinees pushed Charlie Brown to a 62% hike on Saturday with $19.6M to Friday’s $12.1M. Some Sony insiders believe that the Peanuts ganged up on Bond, and stole some of the spy’s lunch money. I really don’t think Peanuts was a threat in any way. It brought in a significantly younger demo (46% under 25), and more mom crowd (55% ladies) — and they’re not the primary demo for Bond. Yes, Skyfall didn’t have any competition when it opened, but Spectre would probably be seeing the same B.O. trajectory sans Peanuts in the market, simply because it’s coming up short in its wonder next to Skyfall. 

70% of the Peanuts audience was family and the non-family segment was split evenly between teens and non-parent adults. Peanuts fared best east of the Rockies with the top theaters coming from a melange of states such as NJ, CA, TX, VA, NY, and FL. Overperforming cities included NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit and Charlotte. Much like Spectre turned itself into an event film with its number of promotional partners and tie-ins, Fox also began the drum roll for the reboot of this family film on the big screen, arguably the first time a Peanuts film hit the theaters since 1980’s Bon Voyage Charlie Brown. 

Peanuts The Movie posterFox domestic distribution chief Chris Aronson gave props to his fellow studio marketing chief this morning, saying “Marc Weinstock and his team managed to hit the nostalgic audience, but also made the Peanuts property relevant for a new generation, which is a very difficult thing to do in today’s fragmented world.” It was an easy feat from the onset to pull in the adults, but it was the teen turnout that surprised Fox executives the most.

Digital, which included several elements, was key in hooking the young set. Fox took advantage of tubthumping the film during key cultural events stateside (read: MLB Opening Day “Catch” activation, during which 25,000+ fans joined in one of the largest games of digital catch). There was a Mother’s Day peanutizecelebration video which clocked 823K+ views. A Happy New Year’s creative had an organic reach of 20M+. Peanuts Movie Twitter campaign used a number of event-ized hashtags and partners to create full day activations. In sum, the entire Twitter campaign generated a total of 5.8M Tweets, with a reach of 425.7M and exposure of 2B+. On Snapchat, Peanuts created the first-ever sponsored Snapchat Lens on Halloween (one of the largest photo-sharing days of the year).  There was even a Wah-Wah Machine, which engaged fans by turning their text messages into customized WAH-WAH’s they could share on their personal social platforms. But one social Peanuts piece of marketing that many had a ton of fun with across Facebook, Twitter and Instagram was the The PeanutizeMe Character Creator which hosted 14MM+ sessions with 6MM+ characters created. PeanutizeMe even got a special call-out by Jimmy Fallon on The Tonight Show. Like Universal with its Minions mobile game and Furious 7 social groundswell, Fox is just as sharp when it comes to digital promotions. That Rio Angry Birds game, which also played into opening that movie, is still unforgettable. “There’s a positive message about Peanuts that is resonating with moviegoers of all ages. That’s what sets it apart.” added Aronson.

The weekend’s top 10 for Nov. 6-8 as compiled by Deadline’s Amanda N’Duka:

1). Spectre (SONY), 3,929 theaters / $28M Fri. */ $26.75M Sat. (-4%) / $18.25M Sun. (-32%) / 3-day cume: $73M /Wk 1
*includes $5.25M of Thursday previews. Industry calculation: $71.6M.

2). The Peanuts Movie (FOX), 3,897 theaters / $12.1M Fri. /$19.6M Sat. (+62%) / $13.3M Sun. (-32%) /3-day cume: $45M /Wk 1

3). The Martian (FOX), 2,855 theaters (-363) / $2.6M Fri. /$4.3M Sat. (+66%) / $2.4M Sun. (-44%) /3-day cume:$9.3M (-21%)/ Total cume: $197.1M / Wk 6

4). Goosebumps (SONY), 3,051 theaters (-567) / $1.7M Fri. /$3.3M Sat. (+95%) / $2.1M Sun. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $7M (-29%)/Total cume: $66.5M /Wk 4

5). Bridge Of Spies (DIS), 2,767 theaters (-106) / $1.8M Fri. /$2.7M Sat. (+54%) / $1.6M Sun. (-41%) /3-day cume: $6.1M (-26%)/Total cume: $55M /Wk 4
Industry calcuation: $6M

6). Hotel Transylvania 2 (SONY), 2,274 theaters (-688) / $793K Fri. /$1.7M Sat. (+119%) / $1.1M Sun. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $3.6M (-39%) / Total cume: $161.3M /Wk 7

7). Burnt (TWC), 3,003 theaters (0) / $897K Fri. /$1.3M Sat. (+42%) / $833K Sun. (-35%) /3-day cume: $3M (-40%)/ Total cume: $10.2M /Wk 2
Industry calculation: $2.9M

8). The Last Witch Hunter (LGF), 2,286 theaters (-796) / $702K Fri. / $1.2M Sat. (+72%) / $738K Sun. (-39%) /3-day cume: $2.65M (-49%) /Total cume: $23.6M /Wk 3

9). The Intern (WB), 1,071 theaters (-450) / $540K Fri. /$820 Sat. (+52%) / $450K Sun. (-45%) /3-day cume: $1.8M (-25%)/Total cume: $71.4M/ Wk 7

10). Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension (PAR), 1,087 theaters (-443) / $510K Fri. /$760K Sat. (+49%) / $380K Sun. (-50%) /3-day cume: $1.65M (-52%)/ Total cume: $16.3M / Wk 3

Notables:

Our Brand Is Crisis (WB), 2,202 theaters (0)/ $450K Fri. /$635K Sat. (+41%) / $415K Sun. (-35%) /3-day cume: $1.5M (-54%)/Total cume: $6M /Wk 2

Suffragette (FSL), 222 theaters (+199)/ $221K Fri. //$338K Sat. (+53%) / $220 Sun. (-35%) /3-day cume: $779K (+354%)/ Total cume: $1.1M /Wk 3

Scouts Guide To The Zombie Apocalypse (PAR), 1,151 theaters (-358)/ $188K Fri. /$282K Sat. (+50%) / $160K Sun. (-43%) / 3-day cume: $630K (-66%) / Total cume: $3.15M /Wk 2

Miss You Already (RSA), 384 theaters / $173K Fri. /$233K Sat. (+35%) / $151K Sun. (-35%) /3-day cume: $557K /Wk 1

Spotlight (OPRD), 5 theaters / $89K Fri. /$118K Sat. (+32%) / $95K Sun. (-20%) /3-day cume: $302K / Per screen: $60K /Wk 1

Everyday I Love You (ABS), 80 theaters / $75K Fri. /$104K Sat. (+39%) / $68K Sun. (-35%) /3-day cume: $246K /Wk 1

Brooklyn (FSL), 5 theaters / $52K Fri. /$75K Sat. (+45%) / $55K Sun. (-27%) /3-day cume: $181K / Per screen: $36K /Total cume: $237K /Wk 1

The Man In 3B  (FREE), 50 theaters / $34K Fri. /$47K Sat. (+35%) / $30K Sun. (-35%) /3-day cume: $111K /Wk 1

Ex-Files 2: The Backup  (ASIA), 18 theaters / $30K Fri. /$45K Sat. (+47%) / $31K Sun. (-30%) /3-day cume: $107K /Wk 1

Trumbo (BST), 5 theaters / $22K Fri. /$32K Sat. (+42%) / $23K Sun. (-25%) /3-day cume: $77K /Per screen: $15K / Wk 1

In Jackson Heights (ZIPP), 1 theaters / $3K Fri. /$6K Sat. (+103%) / $4K Sun. (-40%) /3-day cume: $13K / Wk 1

Peggy Guggenheim: Art A (SUBD), 1 theaters / $4K Fri. /$4K Sat. (+15%) / $3K Sun. (-35%) /3-day cume: $11K / Wk 1

 

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5th UPDATE, 11:48PM: Spectre, the latest in the James Bond franchise, and the family friendly animated film The Peanuts Movie both held onto their audiences Saturday so they are right in line with this morning’s estimated grosses — Spectre is landing around $73M and Peanuts is doing the Snoopy dance to the tune of $44M to $45M. Peanuts-GraphicSpectre received an A- CinemaScore, which translates to an average 3.5 multiple; while we have to see what its second weekend percentage drop might be, it should have a decent ride next weekend, too, as there is nothing on the release schedule to challenge it. Same with Peanuts as Good Dinosaur doesn’t arrive until Thanksgiving. So the release dates for both Spectre (Sony) and Peanuts (Fox) were well chosen by their distribution teams.

If there was any surprise at all today (Saturday), it was that the two other films that appeal to younger audiences — Goosebumps and Hotel Transylvania 2 — both over performed on Saturday giving them a higher than anticipated weekend gross. Here’s how the Top Five look tonight:

1). Spectre (SONY), 3,929 theaters / $27.5M Fri. (includes $5.25M previews) / $26.6M to $27M Sat. (-3%) / 3-day cume: $72.9M  to $74M+ /Wk 1

2). The Peanuts Movie (FOX), 3,897 theaters / $12M+ Fri. / $19.5M Sat. (+61%) / 3-day cume: $44.9M / Wk 1

3). The Martian (FOX), 2,855 theaters (-363) / $2.5M Fri. (-26%) / $4.3M to $4.6M (+66%) / 3-day cume: $9.47M to $9.75M / Total cume: $197.2M / Wk 6

4). Goosebumps (SONY), 3,051 theaters (-567) / $1.68M Fri. (-44%) / $3.2M Sat. (+92%) / 3-day cume: $7M / Total cume: $66.5M / Wk 4

5). Bridge Of Spies (DIS), 2,767 theaters (-106) / $1.75M Fri. (-28%) / $2.76M Sat. (+58%) / 3-day cume: $6M / Total cume: $54.7M / Wk 3

Anita Busch reported the Saturday night box office report.

daniel-craig-in-spectre-1940x12934th UPDATE: 7:59 AM: There’s a lot of analysis below, so I’m cutting right to the chase: Spectre should end the three-day around $73M to $74M and change, very close to estimates we had early in the week. That will make this film the second best opening of all time for a Bond film, behind only Skyfall which cumed $88.4M and ended up making a total domestic gross of $304.4M. Sony did a good job opening this film, given that Skyfall had the added bonus of a major push during the Olympics last time around. Internationally, Spectre is taking off in 66 more markets this weekend (including Europe and Latin America), after a stellar performance in the U.K. It doesn’t release in China until next Friday. Those grosses will roll in tomorrow morning.

In the meantime, this weekend may set a record in total box office gross for all films in the first weekend of November, depending on how these new pictures play out today.

When Skyfall opened in 2012, it bowed in a weekend clear of any other big titles — all it had up against it was the second of Wreck-it Ralph. This time around domestically, Spectre has one other film in the market and it’s another animated play.

The other new opener, Fox’s animated Peanuts movie, initially has performed better than estimated and will come in around anywhere between $40M to $45M (we figured $40M in estimates during the week). Peanuts is playing more like holiday fare — with a lot of kids in big cities off from school Friday, it may have been a bit front-loaded. Given today’s matinee numbers, the Saturday decline is looking more significant. This picture is appealing to little girls (and you know how they fueled Frozen), but in order to maintain, it’s gotta have a wider demo appeal. We’ll see tonight.

SpotlightIn a crowded market for indie fare, Oscar hopeful Spotlight, in its first weekend out, may get just around $60K per screen on its five screens for Open Road Films, and that includes its play in Boston where the film is set. Exit polls are extraordinary, 89% saying they would definitely recommend the film, and 83% calling it excellent. Bleecker Street’s Trumbo, also in five screens has only $14,600 per screen. Both are considered possible Best Picture contenders.

Meanwhile, must note that Spectre took business away from The Martian and Disney’s Bridge of Spies this weekend as it grabbed a similar demo. Spectre also has 373 Imax screens and 400-plus PLF screens in its pocket. Still, The Martian is edging ever closer to the $200M mark for Fox.

In its second weekend, we saw a decent hold for TWC’s Burnt (-38%), but it’s cume is only $10.3M after its second round in the kitchen. Warner Bros.’ Our Brand is Crisis dropped 53% and after two frustrating weekends is barely going to crack the $6M mark. Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse is … where is it? Oh, it slid to N0. 18 for a crash and burn drop of 69% in week two. Here’s how it looks this morning:

1). Spectre (SONY), 3,929 theaters / $27.5M Fri. (includes $5.25M previews) / 3-day cume: $73M  to $74.3M /Wk 1

2). The Peanuts Movie (FOX), 3,897 theaters / $12M+ Fri. / 3-day cume: $40M to $45M / Wk 1

3). The Martian (FOX), 2,855 theaters (-363) / $2.5M Fri. (-26%) / 3-day cume: $9M to $9.5M (-22%)/ Total cume: $196.6M to $197.2M / Wk 6

4). Goosebumps (SONY), 3,051 theaters (-567) / $1.68M Fri. (-44%) / 3-day cume: $6.6M (-32%)/ Total cume: $66M / Wk 4

5). Bridge Of Spies (DIS), 2,767 theaters (-106) / $1.75M Fri. (-28%) / 3-day cume: $6.1M to $6.5M (-28%) / Total cume: $54.8M to $55M / Wk 3

6). Hotel Transylvania 2 (SONY), 2,274 theaters (-688) / $794K Fri. (-55%) / 3-day cume: $3M+ to $3.4M (-45%) / Total cume: $160.5M to $161M /Wk 7

7). Burnt (TWC), 3,003 theaters (0) / $895K Fri. (-50%) /3-day cume: $2.9M to $3.1M (-38%) / Total cume: $10M+ / Wk 2

8). The Last Witch Hunter (LGF), 2,286 theaters (-796) / $693K Fri. (-55%) / 3-day cume: $2.2M (-57%) / Total cume: $23.15M /Wk 3

9). The Intern (WB), 1,071 theaters (-450) / $540K Fri. (-26%) / 3-day cume: $1.78M (-27%) / Total cume: $71.35M / Wk 7

10). Our Brand Is Crisis (WB), 2,202 theaters (0) / $441K Fri. (-60%) / 3-day cume: $1.55M (-53%) / Total cume: $5.8M to $6M / Wk 2

Notables:

18). Scouts Guide To The Zombie Apocalypse (UNI), 1,151 theaters (-358) / $188K Fri. (-73%) / 3-day cume: $568K (-69%) / Total cume: $3.1M / Wk 2

Miss You Already (RSA), 384 theaters / $173K Fri. / 3-day cume: $459K / Per screen average: $1,380 / Wk 1

Spotlight (OPRD), 5 theaters / $90K Fri. / 3-day cume: $300K / Per screen: $58K to $60K / Wk 1

Everyday I Love You (ABS), 80 theaters / $75K Fri. / 3-day cume: $234K / Per screen: $3,218 / Wk 1

Brooklyn (FSL), 5 theaters / $52K Fri. / 3-day cume: $52K / Per screen: $35,500 / Total cume: $176K /Wk 1

The Man In 3B (FREE), 50 theaters / $34K Fri. / 3-day cume: $102K / Per screen: $2,848 / Wk 1

Trumbo (BST), 5 theaters / $22K Fri. / 3-day cume: $74K / Per screen: $14,600 / Wk 1

Anita Busch handled the Saturday morning box office report.

3RD UPDATE, 9PM: As the old, crusty guy in the cabin tells 007 in Spectre: Mr. Bond, you’re like a kite, dancing around in a hurricane.” You could say the same thing about Spectre‘s opening weekend grosses. Matinee projections pointed toward an $80M weekend opening and by midnight Friday, Spectre‘s opening is closer to the estimates that were first projected earlier in the week: $75M.

spectreSpectre‘s Friday is currently looking like $28.1M for the Sony/MGM/Eon co-production, still second among the opening days of the last four Daniel Craig Bond films behind Skyfall‘s $30.5M and ahead of Quantum of Solace‘s $27M. Total estimated production cost on Spectre is at $250M with U.S. TV ad spend at $21.5M per iSpotTV. Already, overseas is well north of $80.4M. Factor in at least an estimated $100M P&A spend, and Spectre has a way to go before it breaks even.

Spectre received an A- CinemaScore, which is the same grade as Casino Royale, a tad lower than Skyfall‘s A, and thankfully higher than the B- that Quantum of Solace earned. One of the more interesting takeaways in regards to the difference between Spectre and Skyfall is that Daniel Craig’s popularity increased between the two films: 46% of the crowd came out for him this time vs. the 38% during Skyfall. The latest string of Craig 007 films have typically skewed toward older males, and that same demo was predominant tonight with 54% guys, 78% over 25. There was a tad more women this time around at Spectre with 46% to Skyfall‘s 40%. Both males and females gave the film an A-, but pulling down its score was the older 007 fans: The blue hairs, who repped 35% of the 50+ demo, gave Spectre a B+.

Even before the film opened, both Sony and other rival distribution executives predicted Spectre‘s slight downfall from Skyfall. It’s just tough to top that film. It set a new dramatic standard for the franchise from a character origins standpoint; the title alone referred to Bond’s childhood home estate. You can’t blame the marketing for Spectre. Tracking spectre 9increased over the last two weeks, which indicates marketing worked: Total awareness moved from 65% to 75%, while unaided awareness surged from 9% to 23%. Furthermore, Sony aligned itself with a slew of guy brands from Gillette razors to Jaguar Land Rovers.

From the March teaser trailer, Sony aptly promised that Spectre would continue the character story line it laid out with the previous Craig films, promptly picking up where Skyfall left off: MI6 HQ is now in ruins. Moneypenny gives Bond a box of Skyfall memorabilia, notably a childhood photo indicating he might have a long-lost relative in Spectre. Also, it introduced Christoph Waltz’s villain and the Spectre committee, a criminal org that first appeared in Dr. No.  However, rival distribution chiefs cited that the less-than-Skyfall reivews (Spectre has 62% to Skyfall‘s 93%) would certainly impact business. Bond skews heavily toward older males, and given how adults are swayed by critics, that’s why there’s a slowdown from Skyfall to Spectre.

bibi dahlWhen it comes to the further dramatization of Bond’s roots in Spectre, some critics feel that the movie is just grasping at straws in regards to its big reveals. I mean, it’s not like the snow bunny that Bond bed in For Your Eyes Only, Bibi Dahlarrives and announces “James, it’s been 34 years. I’d like to finally introduce you to your kids.” That would have been more of a logical, riveting payoff for Bond fans. (duly note that Neal Purvis and Robert Wade have been part of the 007 scribe team going back to 1999’s The World Is Not Enough). Rex Reed of The New York Observer whined about Spectre: “The trouble is, we’ve seen it all before. Despite a plot trajectory that changes so often they seem to be making it up as they go along, everyone on and off the screen seems to be doing it by the numbers”. Wall Street Journal‘s Joe Morgenstern huffed, “Debilitating fatigue has set in…clumsy acts of cannibalization in a new movie that recycles old concerns about secret service operatives like Bond becoming obsolete in a high-tech world.”

THE PEANUTS MOVIEComing on strong and chasing Bond down: 20th Century Fox’s The Peanuts Movie which is reaping an A CinemaScore. Talk about overperformance. Friday is between $12M-$13M currently for the CGI version of the classic Charles Schultz cartoon, with an industry projected opening of $47M-$48M. The initial assessment for this animated feature was that the older parents were going to drag their kids to this movie, versus the other way around (which is the way it usually goes down). 38% of those taking in Snoopy and Charlie Brown were under 18 and they gave it an A+. The 25 under/over set was split 50/50, with slightly more females than men. Peanuts cost an estimated $100M with the cost of TV ads at $15.5M per iSpotTV.

BRIDGE OF SPIESAmong adult titles, Fox’s The Martian and Disney/DreamWorks’ Bridge of Spies continue to write their meal tickets throughout the fall. Martian is currently estimated to dip only 19% in its sixth frame with an estimated $9.5M FSS and a cume by Sunday of $197.3M. The Steven Spielberg-Tom Hanks combo is expected to post a soft decline of 26% in weekend four with $6.1M and a running total cume by the end of the weekend of $55M. Steve Jobs looks like it was infected with malware, but alas that’s not the case: The film lost 2,072 theaters, free falling 74% in its fifth weekend with $698K and a total cume of $16.6M.

spotlight 2Among the new arthouse entries, Open Road’s Spotlight looks to make that $50K per theater mark from five runs in Boston, New York and Los Angeles with an estimated FSS of $262K. Fox Searchlight’s Brooklyn looks to make $232K by Sunday after opening Wednesday with a per theater of $46K (over 5-days) from five runs in New York and Los Angeles. Bleecker Street’s Trumbo has less money in its pockets with a projected $14K per theater or $70K from five NY and LA runs.

The top 10 films for the weekend of Nov. 6-8 per industry estimates as compiled by Deadline’s Amanda N’Duka:

1). Spectre (SONY), 3,929 theaters / $28.1M Fri.*/3-day cume: $75M /Wk 1
*includes $5.25M Thursday night previews

2). The Peanuts Movie (FOX), 3,897 theaters / $12-$13M Fri. /3-day cume: $47-$48M /Wk 1

3). The Martian (FOX), 2,855 theaters (-363) / $2.7M Fri. (-23%)/3-day cume: $9.5M (-19%)/ Total cume: $197.3M / Wk 6

4). Goosebumps (SONY), 3,051 theaters (-567) / $1.7M Fri. (-44%)/ 3-day cume: $6.7M (-32%)/Total cume: $66M /Wk 4

5). Bridge Of Spies (DIS), 2,767 theaters (-106) / $1.8M Fri. (-28%)/3-day cume: $6.1M (-26%)/Total cume: $55M /Wk 3

6). Hotel Transylvania 2 (SONY), 2,274 theaters (-688) / $866K Fri. (-53%)/ 3-day cume: $3.6M (-39%) / Total cume: $161.6M /Wk 7

7). Burnt (TWC), 3,003 theaters (0) / $918K Fri. (-50%)/3-day cume: $3.1M (-38%)/ Total cume: $10.3M /Wk 2

8). The Last Witch Hunter (LGF), 2,286 theaters (-796) / $671K Fri. (-55%)/ 3-day cume: $2.2M (-57%) /Total cume: $23.15M /Wk 3

9). The Intern (WB), 1,071 theaters (-450) / $547K Fri. (-26%)/3-day cume: $1.9M (-23%)/Total cume: $71.5M/ Wk 7

10). Our Brand Is Crisis (WB), 2,202 theaters (0)/ $460K Fri. (-59%)/3-day cume: $1.6M (-51%)/Total cume: $6.1M /Wk 2

Notables:

Scouts Guide To The Zombie Apocalypse (UNI), 1,151 theaters (-358)/ $186K Fri. (-73%)/ 3-day cume:$568K (-69%) / Total cume: $3.1M /Wk 2

Miss You Already (RSA), 384 theaters / $150K Fri. /3-day cume: $459K /Wk 1

Spotlight (OPRD), 5 theaters / $80K Fri. /3-day cume: $262K / Per screen: $52K /Wk 1

Everyday I Love You (ABS), 80 theaters / $64K Fri. /3-day cume: $201K /Wk 1

Brooklyn (FSL), 5 theaters / $55K Fri. /3-day cume: $175K / Per screen: $35K /Total cume: $232K /Wk 1

The Man In 3B  (FREE), 50 theaters / $40K Fri. /3-day cume: $119K /Wk 1

Trumbo (BST), 5 theaters / $22K Fri. /3-day cume: $70K /Per screen: $14K / Wk 1

2ND UPDATE, 12:15 PM: For 007, the box office, not diamonds, is forever. Industry projections have the opening weekend for Spectre at $80M — still the second-best James Bond opening behind 2012’s Skyfall– with an eye on a $30M Friday. By the way, Skyfall made $30.5M on its opening day. Rentak’s PostTrak currently reports a heavily older-male audience for Spectre at 65% to ladies at 35%. Over 25 is 74%. Of those moviegoers polled, a leading 34% came out because it’s a franchise they like.

spectre 3Again, the bigger the box office for Spectre in the long run, the more leverage that Bond rights holders –MGM chief Gary Barber and Danjaq producers Michael G. Wilson and Barbara Broccoli — will have in their negotiations as other studios vie for the franchise rights. Again, that discussion will happen after all the global receipts and ancillaries are counted on Spectre. CinemaScore, which will come in tonight, definitely will have an impact on the leg-out factor for Spectre. Of the past three Daniel Craig films, 2008’s Quantum Of Solace earned the lowest grade at B- and finaled at $168.4M, 2.5x its $67.5M debut. Skyfall had the best grade with an A and a domestic B.O. of $304.36M, which was 3.4x its $88.36M FSS opening. Casino Royale cashed in $167.4M off an A- CinemaScore, which repped a 4x leg-out from its $40.8M opening in 2006.

20th Century Fox’s The Peanuts Movie also is doing well, with a $14M Friday and a weekend that is at least in the mid-$40M range. Rival distribs think it could get to $50M. Some schools are off today due to parent-teacher conferences in the state of New Jersey and such cities as Los Angeles, Chicago and Denver, and no doubt this is contributing to business. Holding up well in third is Fox’s The Martian, which looks to be down 35% in its sixth frame at the No. 3 spot with $7.6M over the three-day and a cume by Sunday of $195.4M.

SpotlightIn regards to the handful of prestige specialty films, their foot traffic always is spurred by excellent reviews. I’m told with Open Road’s Spotlight, that if the film does less than $50K per theater, that would be unfortunate for a title that carries a glowing 96% fresh Rotten Tomatoes score. The Tom McCarthy-directed title about the Boston Globe’s investigation into the covered-up molestations by the city’s Catholic Archdiocese actually could hit that number. If Fox Searchlight’s Brooklyn gets $50K per theater, off its 99% fresh Rotten Tomato reviews, that would be a boon for them. Bleecker Street’s Trumbo, which only carries a 66% fresh score, likely will be around $25K per theater for the weekend. Adults come at night, so these art house B.O. figures could change drastically.

1ST UPDATE, 7:26AM: Last night, Mr. Bond started knocking over the casino at the North American box office, making a royal $5.25 million at 3,221 theaters from previews that started at 7 PM. Industry projections for Spectre‘s opening have risen slightly since earlier in the week, with a FSS of $75M-$80M at 3,929 theaters — the widest release ever for a Bond film. That would make the 24th 007 title the second-highest opener stateside in the franchise behind 2012’s Skyfall ($88.4M).

Sony has the film’s opening at a much lower level — in the $60M-$65M range — but many believe Spectre will be higher than that. Bond is also getting some Viagra from Imax and PLF bookings.

Spectre is a co-production between Sony, MGM and Eon, and it marks Sam Mendes’ second time in the director’s chair after Skyfall. To date, the 007 franchise through 24 titles has made in excess of $6.1B worldwide (that’s not counting Never Say Never Again). Sony’s three Daniel Craig Bond titles — Casino Royale, Quantum Of Solace and Skyfall — rep close to 40% of that franchise cume.

SPECTRESpectre‘s anticipated less-than-Skyfall opening doesn’t mean that the Bond franchise is bound to have a heart attack. Many factors were working in Skyfall‘s favor when it opened in 2012: There wasn’t any competition at the box office, it was the 50th anniversary of 007, and the film, armed with a 93% fresh Rotten Tomatoes score, truly titillated fans. Skyfall took Bond’s origin story to a deeper level that had never been portrayed before on the big screen.

There has been some concern that older nostalgic adults will skip Spectre this weekend in favor of taking the kids to see 20th Century Fox’s The Peanuts Movie. In addition, Spectre is showing a soft spot with younger women under 25, with unaided awareness at 16%, whereas other demos are in the 20%-30% range. (Unaided is that portion of audience polling where a person names a movie title without any leading or prompting from a pollster).

The Peanuts moviePeanuts Movie didn’t hold previews last night. It is expected to make $40M-$45M at 3,897 venues. The film is tracking strongly among females of all ages, with men not too far behind. While animated fare typically debuts during the first weekend of November, Disney/Pixar’s The Incredibles still holds the best opening for the genre during this period at $70.5M.

On Wednesday, Fandango showed Spectre beating Skyfall at the same point in its advance ticket cycle, while The Peanuts Movie was besting the pre-sales of early autumn hits Hotel Transylvania 2 and Goosebumps.

The-MartianMeanwhile, pre-industry estimates this morning (not reported by 20th Century Fox) show that Ridley Scott’s The Martian has clicked past 2000’s Gladiator ($187.7M) to become the director’s highest-grossing film at the domestic B.O. with a current running cume of $187.76M. Last night, the film was the No. 1 title outside of Spectre previews, making $950K. The film is expected to fall a bit this weekend no thanks to 007, with an estimated sixth frame of $6.5M. On a worldwide basis, The Martian at $435.6M has yet to topple Gladiator‘s global score of $457.6M.

And if you think the adult specialty marketplace is crowded already, look out for Bleecker Street’s Trumbo, Fox Searchlight’s Brooklyn and Open Road’s Spotlight as they jump into the fray today, largely playing in New York and Los Angeles.