MONDAY UPDATE 3PM: Lionsgate’s Insurgent came in with a weekend actual of $52.26M which is 3% off of the studio-reported weekend estimate yesterday and 4% off Divergent‘s $54.6M bow last March. Industry estimates were projecting $53.3M. Insurgent‘s updated opening figure is fine, however, we’re use to seeing ticket sales swell whenever there is a sequel to a YA franchise. Lionsgate is confident about the long term playability of Insurgent as it hit an A CinemaScore with the under 25ers, hence word of mouth is solid. 15% of all K-12 schools are out with 14% colleges off, so that will help.
The trick for Lionsgate is to further expand the Divergent audience beyond the core book fans –something that was a top priority for Universal when they launched the screen adaptation of Fifty Shades of Grey — for the next two Divergents, which are being culled from the last book Allegiant. Part 1 bows on March 18, 2016 while part 2 is March 24, 2017. One way Uni did this with Fifty Shades was by utilizing certain mega pop artists, i.e. Beyonce, to announce the film’s teaser (her song was also on the Fifty soundtrack), in an effort to get their brand to the singer’s fanbase.
3-day on Walt Disney’s Cinderella is $34.967M which is slightly higher than Sunday morning’s estimate by the studio. Total 10-day domestic cume is at $122.5M. Cindy had a decent hold, down only -47%, besting Maleficent‘s second weekend drop of -51%.
Open Road’s Gunman came in on target with its weekend estimate yesterday, $5M, which is still a bad take for a film that cost in the high $40Ms. The egg here is on Canal Plus.
Among the top theater averages, Bleecker Street’s debut Danny Collins posted the highest with $14.492 followed by Insurgent‘s $13,487 and RADiUS’ It Follows with $10,777.
Final weekend ticket sales per Rentrak are $130.8M, less than 1% off from last weekend’s haul, but 7.6% off from the same frame a year ago ($141.5M). 2015 ticket sales from Jan. 1-March 22 are $2.256B, up 4.2% over the same period in 2014.
Here’s the top 20 actuals per Rentrak Theatrical for the weekend of March 20-22:
1). Insurgent (LG), 3,875 theaters / 3-Day PSA: $13,487/ 3-Day: $52.26M / Wk 1
2). Cinderella (DIS), 3,848 theaters (+3) / 3-Day PSA: $9,087/ 3-Day: $34.96M (-47%) / Total Cume: $122.5M/Wk 2
3). Run All Night (WB), 3,171 theaters (0) / 3-Day PSA: $1,587/ 3-Day: $5.03M (-54%) /Total Cume: $19.6M/Wk 2
4). The Gunman (OR), 2,816 theaters / 3-Day PSA: $1,786/ 3-Day: $5.02M /Wk 1
5). Kingsman: The Secret Service (FOX), 2,233 theaters (-412) / 3-Day PSA: $2,082/ 3-Day: $4.6M (-26%)/ Total Cume: $114.59M/ Wk 6
6). Do You Believe? (PF), 1,320 theaters / 3-Day PSA: $2,721 / 3-Day: $3.59M / Wk 1
7). The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (FSL), 2,016 theaters (-6)/ $3-Day PSA: $1,741/ 3-Day: $3.5M (-38%)/Total Cume: $24.1M/Wk 3
8). Focus (WB), 2,055 theaters (-800) / 3-Day PSA: $1,579/ 3-Day: $3.2M (-43%)/Total Cume: $49.3M /Wk 4
9). Chappie (Sony), 2,429 theaters (-772) / 3-Day PSA: $1,096/ 3-Day: $2.66M (-53%)/ Total Cume: $28.3M /Wk 3
10). The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water (PAR), 1,980 theaters (-679) / 3-Day PSA: $1,210 / 3-Day: $2.39M (-40% )/Total Cume: $158.8M/ Wk 7
11). McFarland USA (DIS), 1,816 theaters (-639) / 3-Day PSA: $1,210/ 3-Day: $2.19M (-39%) /Total Cume: $38.5M/ Wk 5
12). American Sniper (WB), 1,456 theaters (-545) / 3-Day PSA: $1,105/ 3-Day: $1.6M (-43%) /Total Cume: $343.9M /Wk 13
13). The Lazurus Effect (REL), 1,306 theaters (-748) /3-Day PSA: $1,053/ 3-Day: $1.37M (-52%) / Total Cume: $24M / Wk 4
14). Fifty Shades Of Grey (UNI/Focus), 1,168 theaters (-871) / 3-Day PSA: $1,123/ 3-Day: $1.3M (-54%)/Total Cume: $163.8M/ Wk 6
15). The Duff (CBS/LGF), 1,437 theaters (-864) /3-Day PSA: $861/ 3-Day: $1.2M (-57%) / Total Cume: $32.4M / Wk 5
16). Still Alice (SPC), 440 theaters (-300) /3-Day PSA: $1,059/ 3-Day: $465.8K (-48%) / Total Cume: $17.2M / Wk 10
17). Paddington (TWC), 502 theaters (-335) /3-Day PSA: $854/ 3-Day: $428.8K (-39%) / Total Cume: $74.2M / Wk 10
18). The Imitation Game (TWC), 337 theaters (-188) / 3-Day PSA: $1,102/ 3-Day: $371.5K (-44%)/Total Cume: $90.1M/Wk 17
19). It Follows (RAD), 32 theaters (+28) / 3-Day PSA: $10,777K /3-Day: $344.8K (+115%) /Total cume: $568.9K/Wk 2
20). Unifinished Business (Fox), 597 theaters (-2,180) /3-Day PSA: $533/ 3-Day: $317.9K (-86%) / Total Cume: $9.98M / Wk 3
La Passion d’Augustine (eOne Films), 34 theaters / 3-Day PSA: $6,764 / 3-Day: $229,967 / Wk 1
Danny Collins (BSF), 5 theaters /3-Day PSA: $14,492/ 3-Day: $72,459 / Wk 1
Kumiko, The Treasure Hunter (AR), 4 theaters /3-Day PSA: $8,528 / 3-Day: $34,114 / Wk 1
Spring (DF), 12 theaters /3-Day PSA: $1,640 / 3-Day: $19,675/ Wk 1
Zombeavers (FREE), 11 theaters /3-Day PSA: $742/ 3-Day: $8,163/ Wk 1
Can’t Stand Losing You: Surviving The Police (CL), 2 theaters / 3-Day PSA: $2,828/ 3-Day: $5,656/ Wk 1
PREVIOUS SUNDAY FINAL UPDATE: After all the agita over whether Insurgent would even come close to emulating Divergent‘s opening of $54.6M, Lionsgate is calling the sequel’s opening weekend at $54M with $101M worldwide. Early Friday-afternoon figures lowballed the film with a $40M-ish weekend, not taking into account that the pic’s under-18 crowd (29% who gave it an A) would come out in the evening. Insurgent‘s stateside figure of $54M is essentially 1% off from Divergent. Essentially, Insurgent had a decent Saturday.
Though Friday’s $21.3M fell a little short of Divergent’s $22.8M, Insurgent‘s Saturday of $19.875M improved slightly over Divergent‘s $19.85M a year ago. Lionsgate is estimating that Insurgent’s Sunday arrives in at $12.8M, 7% higher than Divergent‘s first Sunday which was $11.97M. At 356 IMAX hubs, Insurgent is set to post $3.6M with another $4.4M coming from its premium large format competition for a total of $8M or 15% of Insurgent‘s till. Cinemark was the large format leader among non-IMAX hubs. When it comes to reporting precise box office figures, Lionsgate has always been fair, meaning they don’t just grab for the Sunday headline. Currently, per industry estimates if Insurgent falls short of its reported $54M, it will be at $53.3M, which isn’t too shabby.
Said Richie Fay, Lionsgate’s domestic theatrical distribution president, “A great indication of the growing power of Insurgent is its Friday to Saturday hold along with its A- CinemaScore. There were slightly more males with this film. We had IMAX which plays to the fanboys, so we are broadening the audience. Coming into next weeks, I think the playability will be great as spring break continues and with the weather breaking back east.”
Among those taking a seat for Insurgent, 65% of the audience bought tickets because of the pic’s subject matter (they gave it an A- CinemaScore), 33% came out for Shailene Woodley, 25% for Theo James, 36% for the genre and 5% for director Robert Schwentke (who was behind 2010’s elderly action film RED and 2005’s Jodie Foster thriller Flightplan).
While grosses for YA films tend to be frontloaded with Friday being the biggest B.O. day, both Divergent and Insurgent have shown a stronger holding power in their Friday-to-Saturday slips respectively with -13% and -7% versus other femme-demo franchises, read Twilight (-41%), The Twilight Saga: New Moon (-42%), The Hunger Games (-25%) and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (-26%).
One hurdle holding Insurgent‘s Tris back from loftier figures was Walt Disney’s Cinderella who continued to party on into her second weekend with $34.4M, down 47% for a 10-day cume of $122M. Divergent didn’t have to contend with another female pic standing in its way last year. Lionsgate saw Cindy in the market and took advantage of reaching her audience last weekend by pig backing Insurgent trailers on the Disney film. Even with Cinderella attracting repeats female auds, it’s impressive to say how well Insurgent held up against her, earning a similar amount of cash to Divergent.
Together Insurgent and Cindy led all films to a weekend total of $130M per Rentrak Theatrical, which is just 1% off from last weekend’s $131.5M. This weekend through was 8% off from a year ago when ticket sales totaled $141.5M. With $2.26B at the domestic B.O., 2015 is still pacing ahead of 2014 by 4.2%.
The Gunman came in fourth with $5M at 2,816. While that’s under the $8M that Open Road was projecting, with a forecast like that, it’s not like the distributor was expecting this R-rated action film to set the charts on fire. Sources tell Deadline that Open Road didn’t pay for an advance on the film,so they kept their risk at a minimum. Reportedly, Canal Plus spent in the high $40Ms on the Sean Penn film, but it’s apparent they built Gunman to play around the globe with its international cast (Javier Bardem, Italian actress Jasmine Trinca) and foreign locales. Gunman only went out in nine territories making an estimated $850K, two of the big countries being the United Kingdom and Australia. Chalk Gunman‘s stateside fall to too many R-rated action films stepping on each others’ toes, and that’s evident from the fact that Run All Night beat Gunman by a hair in its second sesh with $5.1M in third and 20th Century Fox’s Kingsman: The Secret Service not too far behind in fifth with $4.6M. Gunsman drew an older male crowd with 83% over 25 and 61% guys. Also, Penn is known for his critically acclaimed awards season dramatic oeuvre (read Mystic River, Milk), he’s not an actor who has a rep for opening action films. Even though 56% of the audience came out for Gunman because of Penn, they gave it a B- CinemaScore. 33% of the audience bought tickets to Gunman because it’s an action film, but they gave it a C+ CinemaScore. Penn’s biggest openers were 2005’s The Interpreter ($22.8M) and 2013’s Gangster Squad ($17M) and those films weren’t sold strictly on his image. Interpreter had Nicole Kidman during her early millennium heyday at the B.O. while Gangster Squad was sold on its ensemble of Penn, Emma Stone, Ryan Gosling and Josh Brolin.
Pure Flix’s Do You Believe? as expected come in lower than its $5.5M projection with a $4M bow at 1,320 venues. It’s apparent the God’s Not Dead (also a Pure Flix release) crowd didn’t take to the Christian drama this time around despite targeting the faith-based via social media and pastors.
Elsewhere, Warner Bros.’ American Sniper on close to 1,500 engagements continues to stay alive with a total cume through its 13th week of $344M. Weinstein Co.’s The Imitation Game has cleared the $90M mark at the domestic B.O., while It Follows continues to build momentum among faithful auds with $352K at 32 playdates for a 10-day cume of $576K.
1). Insurgent (LG), 3,875 theaters / $21.3M* Fri. / $19.8M Sat. (-8%)/ $12.8M Sun. (-35%)/ 3-Day: $54M / Wk 1
2). Cinderella (DIS), 3,848 theaters (+3) / $9.5M Fri. / $15.3M Sat. (+61%)/ $9.6M Sun. (-37%)/ 3-Day: $34.4M (-47%)/Total Cume: $122M/Wk 2
3). Run All Night (WB), 3,171 theaters / $1.4M Fri./ $2.25M Sat. (+60%)/ $1.46M Sun. (-35%)/ 3-Day: $5.1M (-54%)/Total Cume: $19.7M/Wk 2
4). The Gunman (OR), 2,816 theaters / $1.7M* Fri./ $1.9M Sat. (+13%)/ $1.2M Sun. (-38%)/ 3-Day: $5M /Wk 1
5). Kingsman: The Secret Service (FOX), 2,233 theaters (-402) / $1.27M Fri. / $2.1M Sat. (+66%)/ $1.2M Sun. (-43%)/ 3-Day: $4.6M (-26%)/ Total Cume: $114.5M/ Wk 6
6). Do You Believe? (PF), 1,320 theaters / $1.2M Fri. /$1.3M Sat. (+8%)/ $1.5M Sun. (+15%)/ 3-Day: $4M / Wk 1
7). The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (FSL), 2,016 theaters (-6)/ $962K Fri. /$1.5M Sat. (+60%)/ $948K Sun. (-38%)/ 3-Day: $3.4M (-40%)/Total Cume: $24.1M/Wk 3
8). Focus (WB), 2,055 theaters (-800) / $940K Fri. /$1.47M Sat. (+57%)/ $885K Sun. (-40%)/ 3-Day: $3.3M (-42%)/Total Cume: $49.4M /Wk 4
9). Chappie (Sony), 2,429 theaters (-772) / $705K Fri. /$1.15M Sat. (+63%)/ $790K Sun. (-31%)/ 3-Day: $2.65M (-54%)/ Total Cume: $28.3M /Wk 3
10). The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water (PAR), 1,980 theaters (-679) / $582K Fri./ $1M Sat. (+86%)/ $730K Sun. (-33%)/3-Day: $2.3M (-42%)/Total Cume: $158.7M/ Wk 7
*includes Thursday previews
American Sniper (WB), 1,456 theaters (-545) / $430K Fri. / $785K Sat. (+83%)/ $430K Sun. (-45%)/3-Day: $1.6M (-41%) /Total Cume: $344M /Wk 13
Fifty Shades Of Grey (UNI/Focus), 1,168 theaters (-871) / $404K Fri. / $591K Sat. (+46%)/ $299K Sun. (-49%)/ 3-Day: $1.29M (-55%)/Total Cume: $163.8M/ Wk 6
The Imitation Game (TWC), 337 theaters (-188) / $101K Fri. / $182K Sat. (+80%)/ $91K Sun. (-50%)/3-Day: $374K (-44%)/Total Cume: $90.1M/Wk 17
It Follows (RAD), 32 theaters (+28) / $102K Fri. / $143K Sat. (+40%)/ $107K Sun. (-25%)/3-Day PSA: $11K/3-Day: $352K (+116%)/Total cume: $576K/Wk 2
Lost and Love (CHINA), 24 theaters / $29K Fri. /$33K Sat. (+11%)/ $21K Sun. (-35%)/3-Day: $83K / Wk 1
Danny Collins (BST), 5 theaters / $17K Fri. /$32K Sat. (+93%)/ $24K Sun. (-25%)/3-Day PSA: $15K/3-Day: $73K / Wk 1
PREVIOUS SATURDAY, 9AM: Scroll below for industry weekend estimates and studio-reported Friday figures. Some rival trades had their machetes out yesterday, incorrectly calling Lionsgate’s Insurgent‘s weekend off 20% from Divergent‘s $54.6M opening. Distrib estimates even saw Insurgent with a first Friday as low as $17M, 25% off from Divergent‘s $22.78M first day.
What a difference a night makes.
As we forecasted, the under 25ers on spring break — who repped 47% of the crowd — showed up to Insurgent later in the day rather than sooner. As such, the sequel’s first Friday isn’t looking so bad with an estimated $21M at 3,875 theaters, which is off just 8% from Divergent‘s (Lionsgate is calling it at $21.3M). The sequel’s estimated weekend is now looking like $49.6M per industry estimates. Update Saturday AM: Industry estimates now pegging Insurgent opening weekend at $50.4M. Yes, that’s below Divergent’s first weekend by 8% and it’s below the $57M projection per early tracking, but there’s no need to throw a pity party. Working greatly in Insurgent‘s favor is its A- CinemaScore tonight, not far from Divergent‘s A. On average, A- pics typically finalize with a cume that is 3.5x a title’s opening. Divergent’s final domestic of $150.9M was 2.76x its bow. Hence, the anticipation is that Insurgent will leg out and emulate Divergent‘s trajectory. The audience isn’t bound to shrink in the long run for the feature adaptation of Veronica Roth’s second novel (it just didn’t expand this weekend). From the onset, we knew that The Divergent Series wasn’t The Hunger Games in terms of its mass following.
One non-Lionsgate distrib source, speaking to Deadline, observed how similar the exit polls were between Insurgent and Divergent. A few more females turned up this time to Insurgent at 60% versus Divergent’s 59%. More folks under the age of 34 gave it an A or an A-, while middle-age and older filmgoers gave it a B+. While auds came out for stars Shailene Woodley and Theo James last time, they showed an even stronger interest in the duo this time around. However, industry exit polls showed that the subject matter was the prevailing reason why crowds shelled out for Insurgent.
The reported production cost for Divergent was just under $90M and Insurgent carries a reported $110M-$120M price tag. Divergent ranked No. 17 in terms of profit in Deadline’s Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament with a studio net profit of $71.87M.
Similar to how Lionsgate banged the drum for its Hunger Games installments, the mini-major ran a thorough marketing campaign, fueling the fanbase at specific intervals over the last year. Eight 3D character posters were dropped online for fans in October. TV spots began eight weeks out, running during such events as the Super Bowl pre-game, the Oscars red carpet, the Grammys, NBA games and The Walking Dead season premiere. While most of the headliners don’t have personal social media profiles, Lionsgate trotted the cast out with Facebook and Twitter chats, as well as a Google Hangout with Woodley and James. Per RelishMix, Facebook video views for the sequel have passed 20M, with a constant stream of fresh material over the last 3 weeks. An Insurgent Snapchat film campaign included a first-ever exclusive trailer debut on the social media platform as well as a partnership with top social TV property Pretty Little Liars, which included an exclusive clip reveal to their massive following. The PLL Snapcap sponsorship, Snapchat influencer campaign with 15 pieces of original content was shared to a total of 5M Snapchat daily views.
In her second frame, Cinderella was looking at a Friday of $9.69M late last night, but Walt Disney is calling it at $9.5M at breakfast. Cindy will cross the $100M mark on Saturday, and by Sunday its 3-day cume should stand at $35.78M, off 47% with a 10-day stateside cume of $123.8M. Social Media monitor RelishMix reports that Cinderella social activity is outstripping Insurgent by 60% a day. Recent daily views for Insurgent are mostly below 25k per video while Cindy has over 100K views per day. Insurgent ranks second this month in total YouTube views with 77.7M behind Cindy‘s 100.5M.
The Gunman with Sean Penn…what happened here? Pic is looking to arrive below its FSS estimate of $8M with $5.45M. Open Road reported a first Friday of $1.769M. There’s no skin off the domestic distrib’s nose as they’re merely the distributor here with Canal Plus footing the production bill (except domestic P&A). With its story about a secret agent sniper who is forced to go on the lam, Gunman is Sean Penn doing Liam Neeson — not a role moviegoers typically equate with the two-time Oscar-winning actor. Furthermore, they’ve had their fair share of Neeson of late with Warner Bros.’ A- CinemaScore rated Run All Night set to decline 58% this weekend with $4.65M and a 10-day cume of $19.4M. Warners is seeing Friday this morning at $1.4M.
One distribution insider thought the R-rated film should have been sold for its action versus Penn (who takes center stage in the one sheets). If that’s not enough, Gunman is fighting against the surplus of R-rated action films at the multiplex. Auds tripped Gunman with a B- CinemaScore, and critics weren’t any kinder, shooting out the pic’s knee caps with an abysmal 13% Rotten Tomatoes score. It’s unfortunate that this film isn’t clicking, as Penn in fact wears the genre well. Not only are the action scenes wild, but Penn is in tip-top beefcake shape. What’s likely turning audiences off is the film’s convoluted set-up against a Congo political backdrop. Once you get past the first half-hour, Gunman is a fun ride.
Pure Flix’s Christian drama Do You Believe? is also flying below its initial $5.5M projections Last night the industry calculated a FSS of $3.7M. Pure Flix predicts a $4.75M 3-day with a Friday of $1.25M this morning. I’m told much like the production label’s previous indie success God’s Not Dead ($9.2M opening, $60.8M total cume), there was a grass roots social media push for DYB. While the film took over the old God’s Not Dead URL, its social media has been muted compared to the Harold Cronk-helmed title. DYB star Mira Sorvino has been tweeting her support of the film to her 16,900 Twitter followers. Sean Astin, who counts 139K Twitter followers, has reserved his social media promotion for his Boston Marathon charity run. DYB‘s Twitter account has 942 followers versus God’s Not Dead‘s solid 31K. Pure Flix held about 200 DYB preview screenings in advance, comprised of 80 influencer previews and 120 pastor screenings.
Elsewhere, RADiUS’ It Follows continues to be a horror arthouse wonder with a projected $90K Friday and 286K weekend that’s a 75% hike over the same frame a week ago. By Sunday, Weinstein Co.’s Oscar winner The Imitation Game is expected to cross $90M.
Below are the top 10 films per industry estimates for the weekend of March 20-22 as of Saturday 2:30 AM:
1). Insurgent (LG), 3,875 theaters / $21M* Fri. / 3-Day: $49.6M / Wk 1
2). Cinderella (DIS), 3,848 theaters (+3) / $9.69M Fri. (-58%) / 3-Day: $35.78M (-47%)/Total Cume: $123.8M/Wk 2
3). The Gunman (OR), 2,816 theaters / $1.8M* Fri./ 3-Day: $5.45M /Wk 1
4). Kingsman: The Secret Service (FOX), 2,233 theaters (-402) / $1.28M Fri. (-23%)/ 3-Day: $4.68M (-25%)/ Total Cume: $114.6M/ Wk 6
5). Run All Night (WB), 3,171 theaters / $1.38M Fri. (-64%)/ 3-Day: $4.65M (-58%)/Total Cume: $19.4M/Wk 2
6). Do You Believe? (PF), 1,320 theaters / $1.15M Fri. / 3-Day: $3.7M / Wk 1
7). The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (FSL), 2,016 theaters (-6)/ $936K Fri. (-43%)/ 3-Day: $3.28M (-42%)/Total Cume: $24M/Wk 3
8). Focus (WB), 2,055 theaters (-800) / $900K Fri. (-47%)/ 3-Day: $3.1M (-46%)/Total Cume: $49.1M /Wk 4
9). The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water (PAR), 1,980 theaters (-679) / $612K Fri. (-35%)/ 3-Day: $2.69M (-33%)/Total Cume: $159.1M/ Wk 7
10). Chappie (Sony), 2,429 theaters (-772) / $685K Fri. (-56%)/ 3-Day: $2.54M (-55%)/ Total Cume: $28.1M /Wk 3
American Sniper (WB), 1,456 theaters (-545) / $423K Fri. (-44%)/ 3-Day: $1.6M (-43%) /Total Cume: $344M /Wk 13
Fifty Shades Of Grey (UNI/Focus), 1,168 theaters (-871) / $384K Fri. (-59%) / 3-Day: $1.19M (-59%)/Total Cume: $163.7M/ Wk 6
The Imitation Game (TWC), 337 theaters (-188) / $87K Fri. (-52%) /3-Day: $317K (-52%)/Total Cume: $90.9M/Wk 17
It Follows (RAD), 32 theaters (+28) / $90K Fri. (+75%) /3-Day PSA: $8,944/3-Day: $286K (+75%)/Total cume: $510K/Wk 2
Danny Collins (BST), 5 theaters / $17K Fri. /3-Day PSA: $11K/3-Day: $55K / Wk 1