UPDATE, 2:17 PM: Slightly more kids are off for spring break this weekend than last, with a third of all colleges off per Rentrak (vs. 27% last Friday) and 19% K-12 schools out (vs. 17%). As such, that young demo flocks to movies at night and hourlies for Lionsgate’s Insurgent are bound to improve. But currently, Insurgent‘s Friday is looking at $18M-$20M at 3,875 venues; that figure is inclusive of Thursday’s $4.1M.

This was the trajectory last night, with each showing seeing gradual upticks, distribution sources tell me. Divergent‘s Friday gross was $22.78M.

Insurgent trailer stillWhile some box office analysts show Insurgent in the top spot with a low-$40Ms weekend at this point in time, others think the Shailene Woodley-starrer could push past $50M. Per Fandango, 89% of its advance ticket sales for the weekend are coming from Insurgent followed by Disney’s Cinderella with 85%. Per a recent survey the ticket seller conducted, they found that out of 1,000-plus Divergent series ticket-buyers, 84% are Woodley fans; 67% picked Theo James as the supporting actor they were most excited to see in Insurgent; and 62% have read Veronica Roth’s book series. Worldwide this weekend, Insurgent is looking to bust past the century mark with its bow.

In second for Friday and the weekend, industry estimates see Disney’s Cinderella grossing $9.8M-$10M domestically and $33M overall, respectively, at 3,848 movie palaces. The FSS reps a 49% decline with 10-day total raising to $120.5M. Currently, the pic stands at $87.5M stateside.

gunman 2Open Road’s Sean Penn R-rated actioner The Gunman is being projected by the industry at $2M at this point in time for Friday at 2,816 theaters. That figure includes $220K from Thursday night previews. In third, Gunman is looking to hit at this point in time $6M.

Fourth and fifth respectively for FSS will be slotted by Warner Bros.’ Liam Neeson shoot-em up Run All Night and 20th Century Fox’s Kingsman: The Secret Service. Run All Night is being estimated per industry figures with a $1.5M second Friday, a 3-day of $4.7M, and a $19.3M 10-day cume through Sunday. Kingsman has an estimate currently of $1.2M in its sixth Friday and a potential weekend of $4.6M raising its domestic B.O. to $114.5M.

The weekend’s third opener, the Christian drama Do You Believe? from Pure Flix, is looking at an industry estimated Friday of $1.25M and an opening weekend of $4.1M at 1,295 engagements.

PREVIOUS, 7:48 AM: The Divergent sequel collected $12.3M globally from its domestic Thursday preview and overseas openings. Stateside, The Divergent Series: Insurgent grossed an estimated $4.1M last night. That figure will be rolled into Friday’s haul. The first Divergent made $4.9M and that was without any help from 3D. Insurgent is in both 3D and IMAX stateside and in some foreign markets.

foreign insurgent movie posterOverseas, the screen adaptation of the Veronica Roth novel minted $8.2M through yesterday, ranking No. 1 in 49 markets out of the 52 where it has already bowed. Insurgent finds its protag Tris (Shailene Woodley) continuing to battle the dominant government which is crippling her dystopian society. The film is playing in 74 territories on 9,200 screens this weekend with another 3,875 hubs here in the states. Industry global projections have Insurgent ranging from $105M-$120M.

As of yesterday’s tracking, unaided awareness for Insurgent was strong with 24%. Though total awareness was the strongest among women under 25 with 90%, guys aren’t shrugging the femme action pic with an 81% interest in men over and under 25. Insurgent is expected to open to about $60M stateside versus the first installment’s FSS of $54.6M. Overseas till should exceed $50M.

The top opening day for Insurgent came from France which grossed $1.1M (including previews). France was Divergent‘s highest-grossing territory with $12.4M. As Nancy Tartaglione pointed out in our box office preview, what’s bound to work for Insurgent abroad is the halo effect from Woodley’s summer hit The Fault In Our Stars, read while Divergent cashed in OK in Brazil with $6.5M, TFIOS collected a massive $31M. Already, Brazil’s opening day for Insurgent is up 135%. Here are more highlights according to Lionsgate:

Most markets experiencing strong growth for opening days vs. Divergent‘s debuts (measured in local currency):

  • Brazil opening day box office up 135%
  • France up 127%
  • Netherlands up 78%
  • Belgium up 54%
  • Italy up 23%
  • Malaysia up 116%
  • New Zealand up 43%
  • Philippines up 38%