The second weekend of Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles will likely take the No. 1 spot this box office weekend which is crammed with titles competing for audiences. Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy will both be vying for the kids market as everyone heads back to school. There is still expected to be about 73% of kids still out of school. We expect the second weekend of Turtles to come in around $25M to $26M. It’s at $84.8M roughly now so prepare for it to cross the $100M mark in its second weekend of release. (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes should cross $200M this weekend).
Expendables 3, which — due to the piracy and around 5M illegal downloads worldwide — may end up losing about 12% to 15% of its normal three-day gross (that’s what was figured with Wolverine when it was leaked and downloaded 4.5 million times). It will likely take the No. 2 spot with an expected gross of around $22M to $23M; it opens in late nights starting at 7 p.m. tonight. Hope the best for Lionsgate/Millennium Entertainment who got a bum rap on this one due to piracy. The last one opened to $28.5M two years ago and went onto gross $85M but it got around 72% of its total worldwide cume of $305M+ from international markets so it will be looking overseas for the bulk of its grosses again.
Let’s Be Cops which took in $5.2M for its first-day gross (included in that is $1.2M in late nights from Tuesday) got a B CinemaScore last night and is battling negative critic reaction. This was a film that Fox screened heavily because it seemed to play well so they hoped that word-of-mouth would fuel it through the weekend; the marketing of this one was done very well. Perhaps audiences aren’t warming to the fact that there’s something funny about impersonating police officers?
The premiere audience I saw it with really seemed to enjoy it. Me? Nothing funny about seeing a man’s testicles on screen (is this how far we need to go for a laugh? Ahhh, yes, Bruno.) Also nothing funny to me or any other families with members in law enforcement about a video game designer saying “I like to shoot at cops” and the impersonation of police officers. Yes, they show the heroism of a character who plays a real cop, but at the end, there’s a cop putting people in harm’s way again. Is that what audiences are reacting to? Given the situation in St. Louis (Ferguson), I would hate to open this one there now.
This newcomer will be in a race against Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy for the three-day in its third week out. Right now, based on tracking, Guardians is expected around $21M to $22M with Cops around $18M to $20M. If Guardians is off 50% it’ll be in that area. For the five-day performance, Cops is looking like $25M but some observers have it higher if the three-day kicks past Guardians. Time will tell, and I’m giving the buddy comedy the benefit of the doubt.
The last newbie is TWC’s The Giver the dystopian tale based on the YA novel by Lois Lowry who actually has given kudos for the theatrical adaptation to the filmmakers. This one I hear from my colleague who has seen it is actually pretty good but the marketing of it appears a bit soft. It stars the very watchable Meryl Streep and Jeff Bridges and is led by Brandon Thwaites (Oculus and Maleficent). I’ve heard a range of estimates on this one so suffice it to say mid-to-high teens. It’s really hoping to get its box office based on the strength of the YA market.