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Box Office Winners And Losers

Deadline Film Editor Anita Busch offers her post-mortem for the weekend, which saw Angelina Jolie's 'Maleficent' score big (especially overseas), while Seth MacFarlane's 'A Million Ways To Die In The West' went south fast.

OPENING: Maleficent (DIS) conjures up $69.4M ; A Million Ways To Die In The West (UNI) done for at $16.7M.

box_office_weekend_3202008-12-22-12299667655th UPDATE, MONDAY, 1:40 PM: Disney’s announced $70M for numbers on Maleficent even though no one else could conceive of it making that number, but the studio sure got its $70M headline around the world, didn’t it? We didn’t bite and kept it in the $68M+ to $69M+ range. Perception is reality, but the reality is it made $69.4M and now (surprise) the international numbers for Frozen just happened to come in higher in Japan. A bit of a balancing act to squeeze out their $2 billion worldwide box office boast. Would one day have mattered? Meanwhile, Seth MacFarlane’s R-rated roustabout MALEFICENTMALEFICENTA Million Ways To Die In The West will end up with less than $17M. MaleficentWhen the dust cleared this morning, the raunchy comedy kicked in only $16.7M for Universal which saddled up for this disaster in anticipation of MacFarlane’s Ted sequel. Fox’s X-Men: Days Of Future Past fell, as reported, 64% in its second weekend and Warner Bros’ Blended and Uni’s Neighbors (in its fourth weekend) were neck in neck all weekend and ended up only $64,000 apart. Blended took the No. 5 spot.

Next Weekend Openers: The Tom Cruise sci-fi actioner Edge Of Tomorrow from Warner Bros. The screenwriter on the pic, which also stars Emily Blunt, is Christopher McQuarrie, who has worked with Cruise before on Jack Reacher and Valkyrie. The film already bowed overseas to a soft $20M in 28 markets. From 20th Century Fox (I can’t help but think this should have been a Fox Searchlight release) will be the highly anticipated adaptation of the YA John Green novel The Fault In Our Stars with Divergent‘s Shailene Woodley and Ansel Egort starring. It will open day and date in about 20 markets. Chef, which has been getting tremendous word-of-mouth, expands next weekend to around 1,200 theaters. Here’s the final weekend chart:

rpach
6 months
Maleficient big Monday drop off. Not good for next weekend
Robert
6 months
The audience is a better gauge for what or what is worth seeing; Take a look at...
Carolyn
6 months
I really enjoyed Maleficent. Angelina Jolie played a larger-than-life fictional character with incredible nuance and emotion. And...

1). Maleficent (DIS), 3,948 theaters / 3-day cume: $69.4M / Per screen average: $17,586 / Wk 1

2). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 4,001 theaters (+5) / 3-day cume: $32.5M (-64%) / Per screen: $8,136 / Total expected cume: $162M / Wk 2

3). A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI), 3,158 theaters / 3-day cume: $16.7M / Per screen: $5,319 / Wk 1

4). Godzilla (WB), 3,501 theaters (-451) / 3-day cume: $12M (-61%) / Per screen: $3,430 / Total cume: $174.4M / Wk 3

5). Blended (WB), 3,555 theaters (0) / 3-day cume: $8.14M (-43%) / Per screen: $2,291 / Total cume: $29.3M / Wk 2

6). Neighbors (UNI), 2,939 theaters (-327) / 3-day cume: $8.08M (-42%) / Per screen: $2,749 / Total cume: $128.9M / Wk 4

7). The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (SONY) 2,152 theaters (-1,008) / 3-day cume: $3.7M (-52%) / Per screen, $1,756 / Total cume: $192.7M / Wk 5

8). Million Dollar Arm (DIS), 2,329 theaters (-690) / 3-day cume: $3.5M (-49%) / Per screen: $1,541 / Total cume: $27.9M / Wk 3

9). Chef (OPRD), 624 theaters (+126) / 3-day cume: $1.9M (-16%) / Per screen: $3,063 / Total cume: $6.8M / Wk 4

10). The Other Woman (FOX), 1,114 theaters (-1,040) / 3-day cume: $1.3M (-63%) / Per screen: $1,2,47 / Total cume: $81M / Wk 6

11). Belle (FSL), 525 theaters (+72) / 3-day cume: $1.2M (-24%) / Per screen: $2,398 / Total cume: $6.1M / Wk 5

12). Rio 2 (FOX), 983 theaters (-718) / 3-day cume: $1.1M (-55) / Per screen: $1,136 / Total cume: $124.3M / Wk 8

13). Heaven is For Real (SONY), 722 theaters (-998) / 3-day cume: $800K / Per screen: $1,109 / Total cume: $88M / Wk 7

14). Captain America: The Winter Soldier (DIS), 539 theaters (-834) / 3-day cume: $627K (-64%) / Per screen: $1,164 / Total cume: $255.1M / Wk 9

15). The Grand Budapest Hotel (FSL), 249 theaters (-111) / 3-day cume: $374K (-43%) / Per screen: $1,505 / Total cume: $57.3M / Wk 13

16). Divergent (LGF), 373 theaters (-271) / 3-day cume: $327K (-53%) / Per screen: $877 / Total cume: $148.6M / Wk 11

17). Grand Seduction (EONE), 100 theaters / 3-day cume: $323K / Per screen: $3,444 / Wk 1

18). The Immigrant (TWC), 150 theaters (+3) / 3-day cume: $311K (-30%) / Per screen: $2,078 / Total cume: $1M / Wk 3

19). Mom’s Night Out (SONY) 383 theaters (-478) / 3-day cume: $293K (-62%) / Per screen: $765 / Total cume: $9.5M / Wk 4

20). The Lego Movie (WB), 302 theaters (-21) / 3-day cume: $276K (-32%) / Per screen: $916K / Total cume: $255.4M / Wk 17

4th UPDATE, SUNDAY 8:27 AM: Disney just logged in and expects Maleficent to gross $70M this weekend, a bit higher than all other distribs have it. The highest being $69.1M … of course, it’s all predicated on Sunday moviegoing so these are all estimates until tomorrow morning when the final numbers (closer estimates) come in. $70M sounds better than $68M+ or $69M, just as $51M sounded better a few weeks back than $49M. And with $70M, this public company can boast that they reached $2B worldwide — $2,055B, to be exact. Either way, this picture is Angelina Jolie‘s best opener to date, both domestically and internationally where it is pulling in big numbers. IMAX took in 16 of the film’s top 20 runs and they brought in $6.7M on 347 screens.

MaleficentPosterUPDATED, SUNDAY 8:13 AM: Estimates for the 3-day weekend are coming in and it appears that Disney’s Maleficent is on track for a $68M to $69M+ weekend, which is the high end of what it was tracking on Thursday, but right in line with our guesstimates. That gross is predicated on a 25% drop on Sunday. If it falls greater than that, it will obviously see a lower number, but all bets are on that it will be in that range. Disney has not yet weighed in with what it thinks Maleficent will do, but will update when they do (see update above). Their pic received a 5% to 6% bump yesterday … from the all-important family audience. When it bowed on Thursday late nights we saw that the picture was skewing older and then the only question was whether Moms and Dads would bring their children into the theater, based on the dark marketing campaign. They did. The Angelina Jolie-starring 3-D fantasy film, which has a budget of $170M to $180M, also opened internationally day and date as well so stay tuned today as my colleague Nancy Tartaglione will post as soon as the market numbers roll in.

Next weekend is Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow and The Fault in Our Stars (which is going to grab the young adult market and, yes, I’ll say it, outperform and stick around as positive word-of-mouth takes hold and should cross into older demos as it does), but given that there is nothing geared directly at families out there, Maleficent may enjoy a hold. It’s not that great of a movie, but I’m saying that given the A CinemaScore and the lack of other family-type offerings. Worth mentioning that Producer Joe Roth has two pictures in the Top Ten — Maleficent and Million Dollar Arm and Heaven is For Real (Randall Wallace’s film he produced) is No. 13 and has taken in about $88M for Sony. (Edge of Tomorrow also opened international in advance of its domestic run.) Roth and Jolie have nice participation deals on Maleficent, btw.

How the West Was Lost … er, sorry, A Million Ways to Die in the West … has one foot in the grave after opening to a lackluster $17M over the three-day weekend. A-Million-Ways-e1401386487522Perhaps Seth MacFarlane shot himself in the foot by casting himself in the lead. Despite the inclusion of other actors around him who moviegoers actually like — Charlize Theron, Liam Neeson and host of hosts Neil Patrick Harris — this one hit the dirt. Not paydirt. Dirt. Audiences have spoken. MacFarlane has better luck behind the camera, but unless there is another Brady Bunch movie … oh wait, never mind, Christopher Knight is still around …  when they cast a Barbie movie, he could always play Poindexter. Internationally, it’s only taken in $10.3M in 21 markets.

X-Men-Days-of-Future-Past-Mystique-portraitFor those pics in their second weekends, X-Men: Days of Future Past is staring at an expected 64% drop to bring in about $32.6M over the three-day. If it falls a greater percentage, will report that tomorrow, but right now, I think the 64% is a fair assessment. So readers can see a point of comparison, Godzilla dropped 65% in its second weekend, X-Men: The Last Stand also dropped 67% in its sophomore frame after the Memorial Day holiday. Captain America: The Winter Soldier dropped about 51% in its second frame while ASM2 dropped 59%. DOFP‘s gross is hovering around $162.7M domestically compared to Godzilla, which is at roughly $174.5M after three weeks. International numbers have not yet arrived on either picture. One note: X-Men: Days of Future Past actually held on better than expected Saturday, rising 47% and adding about another $900,o00K from Friday’s estimates. Worldwide cume on this pic now sits at around $500M.

blended-movie-sandler-barrymore-01Warner Bros.’ Blended and Uni’s Neighbors have kind of been in a dispute all weekend as who would take the No. 5 spot. It looks like Blended this morning, which is expected to drop about 42% in its second weekend out. From the looks of all the numbers, the two comedies appear to be only about $100,000 to $200,000 apart right now with Blended stepping around its Neighbors this AM, however Universal has it at a lower at $7.7M and expects it to drop about 45%. Time will tell, but the Seth Rogen comedy has grossed … wait for it … over $200M worldwide. So the tale of two Seths … one Seth loses, the other wins big, both out of Universal. Here is how they stand this morning.

NOTEWORTHY: Chef (OPRD) is expanding to 1,000 theaters next weekend to capitalize on the strong, positive word-of-mouth it’s been enjoying.

1). Maleficent (DIS), 3,948 theaters / $24.2M Fri. / $25.6M Sat. (+5%) / $19.2M Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $68M+ to $69.1M (Disney has it at $70M) / Wk 1

2). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 4,001 theaters (+5) / $9.475M Fri. / $13.8M to $14M Sat. (+47%) / $9.4M Sun. (-32%) / 3-day cume: $32.6M (-64%) / Total expected cume: $162.7M / Wk 2

3). A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI), 3,158 theaters / $6.3M Fri. / $6.3M Sat. (+4%) / $4.75M Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $17M+ / Wk 1

4). Godzilla (WB), 3,501 theaters (-451) / $3.29M Fri. / $5.2M Sat. (+58%) / $3.6M Sun. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $12M+ (-61%) / Total cume: $174.5M / Wk 3

5). Blended (WB), 3,555 theaters (0) / $2.37M Fri. / $3.4M Sat. (+46%) / $2.4M Sun. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $8.4M (-42%) / Total cume: $28M to $29M / Wk 2

6). Neighbors (UNI), 2,939 theaters (-327) / $2.4M Fri. / $3.4M Sat. (+39%) / $2.5M Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $8.3M (Uni has it lower at $7.7M) (-41% to 45%) / Total cume: $128.6M to $129.2M / Wk 4

7). The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (SONY) 2,152 theaters (-1,008) / $1M Fri. / $1.6M Sat. (+63%) / $1M Sun. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $3.7M (-52%) / Total cume: $192.7M / Wk 5

8). Million Dollar Arm (DIS), 2,329 theaters (-690) / $1M Fri. / $1.5M Sat. (+53%) / $1M Sun. (-30%) / 3-day cume: $3.6M (-47%) / Total cume: $28M+ / Wk 3

9). Chef (OPRD), 624 theaters (+126) / $499K Fri. / $888K Sat. (+78%) / $622K Sun. (-25%) / 3-day cume: $2M (-16%) / Total cume: $6.9M / Wk 4

10). The Other Woman (FOX), 1,114 theaters (-1,040) / $437K Fri. / $600K Sat. (+39%) / $390K Sun. (-35%) / 3-day cume: $1.4M (-64%) / Total cume: $81.19M / Wk 6

3rd UPDATE, SATURDAY, 11:11 PM: Disney’s Maleficent had a bump of around 6% on Saturday thanks to the family audience. Estimates tonight peg it anywhere between $66M to $69M after casting a Saturday spell of around $24M to $25M+. It will be clearer in the morning after all the numbers are known, but it’s on the high end of our original Thursday estimate.

1395067930002-bb1505-ddl-v1116-grd021150Meanwhile, the draw in moviegoing for Seth MacFarlane’s A Million Ways to Die in the West from Friday to Saturday was pretty flat (only up 2%) which puts it around $17M+ and is a big disappointment for Universal and all involved.

In its sophomore frame, Fox’s X-Men: Days of Future Past held better than had been expected with an estimated $13.9M Saturday, down 52% from the debut Saturday before. Also in its second weekend, Blended (WBros.) is right in line with previous estimates to drop about 43% from last weekend’s 3-day gross. Neighbors got a little bump on Saturday and may actually leapfrog over Blended to take the No. 5 spot in the box office Top Five. More to come in the morning.

2nd UPDATE, SATURDAY, 7:20 AM: With updated numbers this AM, I’m raising the estimate of Maleficent to $65M to $70M. Even if the film is flat in its attendance today, it will still manage $65M and if it gets the bump family audiences bring, it could head to $68M or $70M+. If it drops today and tonight, then it could come in around $62M to $65M. jolie-maleficent-meet-the-other-fairies-of-maleficentI’ve been predicting $68M. The IMAX screens that Godzilla held onto and Maleficent has this weekend are undoubtedly helping. In fact, the pic took in roughly 13.3% of that $4.2M late night gross on Thursday for Disney. Thanks to Angelina Jolie, the solid outdoor campaign and striking key art. Kudos to the Disney marketing team lead by Ricky Strauss. The sell in the audio-visual campaign is quite adult and looks too scary for kids, but the movie really isn’t frightening at all except maybe to very young children — PG rating and an A CinemaScore (surprised me). The budget for this CGI laden, 3-D extravaganza is said to be between $170M and $180M. Internationally, Maleficent did more than $20M yesterday bringing the cume since Wednesday to about $41M. For how many countries it’s playing in and how it’s doing, check out the story my colleague Nancy Tartaglione (thrilled to have her back) filed here.

RELATED: Maleficent Opens To $4.2M Latenights

315277871A Million Ways to Die in the West is actually worse this morning than predicted. Lowering that estimate to $16M to $17M+, and at this rate, this Seth MacFarlane indulgence won’t even break even for Universal. Look westward, I mean onward ho to Ted 2. Disaster. To say anything else would be putting lipstick on a pig. Universal is sticking to a $40M budget, but others say it’s actually $57M to $59M.

In its second weekend, X-Men: Days of Future Past is still on track to take around a 65% dump for a weekend expected in at $31M+ to $32M+. At the end of this three-day, it will have nabbed $162.2M. Godzilla will have taken in $173.5M in three weeks. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will be roughly at $192.5M after five weeks in play. Here you go:

1). Maleficent (DIS), 3,948 theaters / $24.2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $65M to $70M+ / Wk 1

2). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 4,001 theaters (+5) / $9.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $31M+ to $32M+ (-66%) / Total expected cume: $161M / Wk 2

3). A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI), 3,158 theaters / $6.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $16M to $17M+ / Wk 1

4). Godzilla (WB), 3,501 theaters (-451) / $3.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $11M / Total cume: $173.5M / Wk 3

5). Blended (WB), 3,555 theaters (0) / $2.37M Fri. / 3-day cume: $7.8M to $8.2M (43%) / Total cume: $28.9M to $29.4M / Wk 2

6). Neighbors (UNI), 2,939 theaters (-327) / $2.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $7.2M to $7.5M / Total cume: $128M+ / Wk 4

7/8). The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (SONY) 2,152 theaters (-1,008) / $1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.6M / Total cume: $192.5M / Wk 5

Million Dollar Arm (DIS), 2,329 theaters (-690) / $1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.6M / Total cume: $28M / Wk 3

9). Chef (OPRD), 624 theaters (+126) / $496K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.8M / Total cume: $6.76M / Wk 4

The Other Woman (FOX), 1,114 theaters (-1,040) / $435K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.38M / Total cume: $81M / Wk 6

PREVIOUSLY, FRIDAY, 10:56 PM: Disney’s magical mystical tour is expected in with a total of $23M to $24M+ Friday for an estimated cume of around anywhere from $63M to $70M over the three-day weekend (must see Saturday numbers). Disney noted earlier in the day that Maleficent‘s matinees were similar to last year’s Oz: The Great and Powerful and that they are hoping to tap into a flux of school kids into the marketplace. They say about 43% of kids are enjoying summer vacation already; the question has been whether they will enjoy this movie? maleficent-movie-poster-01-1047x1572The film started off strong on Thursday late night beginning at 7 p.m., continued that strength this afternoon and then began to fall off a bit in late nights. The fantasy pic that stars around Angelina Jolie in a CGI world (and an est. $165M to $170M budget) heads into the Saturday/Sunday family moviegoing days with a A CinemaScore. We’ll see what kind of bump it gets tomorrow … I know the estimated range tonight is wide … but it’s hard to predict at the moment as we need to see what happens Saturday. It could be $62M or other configurations could bring it higher ($68M to $70M). The trailer is scarier than the film but nothing is as scary as Fox’s X-Men: Days of Future Past‘s second weekend expected 65% percentage decline or the low-end gross of A Million Ways to Die in the West.

It seems as though movie goers are heeding rotten reviews of Seth MacFarlane’s A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI) as the pic is expected to lasso around $7M Friday for a total of $18M to $20M for the three-day, which was lower than the low end of the estimate going into the weekend. A-Million-Ways-To-Die-In-The-West-Red-Band-Trailer-HD-Charlize-Theron-Liam-Neeson-3096203Probably because a). the advertising looks like a TV mow for a low-end cable network, b). MacFarlane cast himself as the leading man, and c). the crude, sophomoric comedy is only funny to teenage boys (and those 40 year-old guys who have yet to move out of their parents’ basements). Don’t worry, Seth. You’ll always have Paris … or maybe you won’t … we’ll have to see the international numbers on Sunday. So let me rephrase that, you’ll always have Ted (and its sequel). The budget on this thing was said to be around $57M to $59M (Uni claims $40M). It got a B CinemaScore.

Also in its second weekend is the Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore I’ve-seen-it-before comedy Blended which is falling less than 45% for an estimated gross of $8.1M for Warner Bros. Here is the chart as it looks tonight. Estimates and positions may change in the morning.

1). Maleficent (DIS), 3,948 theaters / $23M to $24M+ Fri. / 3-day cume: $63M to $70M+ / Wk 1

2). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 4,001 theaters (+5) / $8.8M to $9.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $30.4M to $31M (-66%) / Total expected cume: $160M / Wk 2

3). A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI), 3,158 theaters / $7M Fri. / 3-day cume: $18M to $20M / Wk 1

4). Godzilla (WB), 3,501 theaters (-451) / $3.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $10.6M / Total cume: $173M+ / Wk 3

5). Blended (WB), 3,555 theaters (0) / $2.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $8.1M (43%) / Total cume: $29.4M / Wk 2

6). Neighbors (UNI), 2,939 theaters (-327) / $2.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $7M to $8M / Total cume: $128M+ / Wk 4

7/8). Million Dollar Arm (DIS), 2,329 theaters (-690) / $1M+ Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.5M to $3.8M / Total cume: $28.4M / Wk 3

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (SONY) 2,152 theaters (-1,008) / $1.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.5M to $4M / Total cume: $192.5M / Wk 5

9/10). Chef (OPRD), 624 theaters (+126) / $470K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.6M / Total cume: $6.7M / Wk 4

The Other Woman (FOX), 1,114 theaters (-1,040) / $417K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.4M to $1.6M / Total cume: $81M+ / Wk 6