Rio 2 will fly into theaters this weekend from Fox and easily peck away the rest of the flock of openers that includes Lionsgate’s Draft Day, the third Kevin Costner starrer this year,, and the horror film Oculus from Relativity. The current thinking is that the animated sequel will do roughly $40M to $42M while the second weekend of Disney’s Captain America: The Winter Soldier will play out to mid-to-high $30M number, but it might surprise. According to Fandango, both Rio 2 and Captain America are neck in neck with ticket sales, each representing roughly 25% of total sales. It really depends how much Captain America drops from its second weekend. Captain America grossed $95M with $10.2M coming from Thursday last weekend (its debut), so if it holds at 50%, it grosses $42.4M. The first Captain America dropped 61% in its second weekend, the first Thor dropped only 47% while its sequel Thor: The Dark World dropped 57%. The first Iron Man dropped only 48.1%, but subsequent sequels dropped 59.4% and 58.4%, respectively. All Marvel titles. Given the stellar reviews for Captain America, it might surprise.
But family audiences should be hungry for another offering as Muppets Most Wanted and Mr. Peabody & Sherman have both been playing in the marketplace for a few weeks. The first Rio opened to $39.2M in 2011 and went onto gross $143M domestically and $484.6M worldwide. Rio 2 already has opened in international markets and already was around $58M on Monday.
Also, there has been a dry spell for horror films — the last ones to go wide were Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones on Jan. 3 and Devil’s Due two weeks later — unless you want to count Pompeii or Sabotage, but that’s a different kind of horror story.
Horror movies are always a little unpredictable, but Oculus could play around the $13M to mid-teen range. The pic premiered at Toronto, while Evil Dead also went the festival circuit last year at SXSW before bowing in April and that took in $11.8M in its opening day (of course, the horror title already was well-known). Anything over, say, $10M for Oculus would do well for Relativity.
Related: Hot Trailer: ‘Oculus’
For Draft Day, it was clearly marketed to NFL fans. The Ivan Reitman film could run in $11M to $12M. We’ve heard that the movie is pretty good — for guys. So whether it will cross over to female audiences or their eyes will glaze over in the first half-hour remains to be seen. We’ll see if the third time might charm moviegoers for Costner; audiences already have seen him in this year’s 3 Days to Kill and Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit before that this year. In limited release from TWC is the Colin Firth-Nicole Kidman starrer Railway Man, a true story set in WWII and based on Eric Lomax’s best-selling book.