Hunger Games Catching Fire Box Office7TH UPDATE: The 1 PM football games are starting, so I will be brief. International numbers for The Hunger Games: Catching Fire are pouring in now, and they are as good as the domestic numbers. The film has grossed $146.6 million in 63 territories, which puts its global opening weekend gross at $307.7 in 65 territories. That’s 45% better than the $211.8 million worldwide that The Hunger Games grossed in its opening weekend. That puts the film halfway to matching the $286.3 million international gross of that original film. It opened in the top spot in nearly all markets, more than doubling The Hunger Games in most markets according to Rentrak. Germany and Denmark tripled their opening weekend numbers while UK, Netherlands and Sweden were 2.5 times better. Russia was 1.5 times better than the original’s opening. Meanwhile WB’s Gravity opened to $35.5 million in China. Like I said, a good weekend for everyone except Carl Icahn.

Related: Specialty Box Office: ‘Philomena’ Debuts Strong; Is It This Year’s ‘Best Exotic Marigold Hotel’?

6TH UPDATE, 9:29 am PST: Well, Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire hit the Saturday numbers Deadline reported in timely fashion for insomniacs, and the film is now expected to hit $161.1 million. Besides trouncing the competition, and beating Twilight Saga: Full Moon for biggest November opening, how does it rate for other records? According to Rentrak, here’s the deal: Catching Fire generated the 2nd best debut of 2013 behind Iron Man 3‘s $174.1 million; it marks the fourth best opening weekend of all time, trailing The Avengers‘ $207 million, Iron Man 3 and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2‘s $169.2M. Catching Fire did better than The Dark Knight Rises $160.9 million. In IMAX, Catching Fire’s domestic weekend gross is an estimated $12.6M on 347 screens, also a record for November 3-day launch as it passed Skyfall‘s $12.5 million. It certainly positions the film to surpass the $408 million grossed domestically by the first film, given there’s a long holiday weekend coming up. Lionsgate gets two more bites at the apple, as it is telling the three-book tale in four movies in a blatant cash grab. I have yet to see where this dilution of a crackling three novel story benefits anyone other than the studio when it is stretched out into another film (I think it hurt The Twilight Saga, because the third installment, Bella’s pregnancy, was excruciating.) Author Suzanne Collins is in the mix on these films, so maybe they’ll add stuff. But if these authors wanted to tell trilogies in four installments, they would have written four books, right?

milo
11 months
Followed by a 15.9 million Tuesday, wow. I was expecting it to be big from wednesday on,...
milo
11 months
And now 12.3 million monday versus 10.8 million for the first. Pacing ahead like that and with...
Jamie
11 months
I 100000% agree

Analyzing far in Catching Fire‘s rear view mirror, the other major release, Delivery Man, didn’t deliver much at all as counter-programming. Maybe the film (studio insiders said it cost $22 million) would have fared better had it opened one week ago against The Best Man Holiday, because clearly Catching Fire consumed most of the oxygen this weekend. Maybe it would have been better to simply avoid such a competitive time period. Thor: The Dark World saw a 61% drop since last weekend, and The Best Man Holiday was off 58%, showing Catching Fire fatigue. How are the Oscar films faring? 12 Years A Slave is running out of steam, Dallas Buyers Club is working in core areas and breakout potential seems dubious. Nebraska bowed just okay and Book Thief a little less than that while Philomena got off to a more encouraging start. The next big family film, Disney’s Frozen, did great in one house and opens wide November 27. The other animation juggernaut, Despicable Me 2, got a bit of new life in 295 theaters, squeaking out $342,000. Speaking of the record books, the $76 million film is at $916.5 million worldwide gross. Universal’s all-time record holder is Jurassic Park, which grossed $118 million worldwide in a 3D re-release which put it just over the $1 billion mark. In order to crack that record, Despicable Me 2 will need to open in China, which should be in the cards but hasn’t yet been solidified. Here is an updated look at how the Top 10 films will finish the weekend:

1) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

PG-13/ Lionsgate/ New/ Runs: 4,163/ Friday: $70.1 million; Saturday: $52.8 million. Sunday: $36.9 million. Weekend Total: $160.6 million. Per-screen average: $36,586. Total domestic gross: $160.6 million.

2) Thor: The Dark World

PG-13/ Disney/ Week 3/ Runs: 3,713 (-128). Friday: $4 million; Saturday: $6.4 million; Sunday: $3.8 million. Weekend Total: $14.4 million. Per-screen average: $3,873. Total domestic gross: $168.1 million.

3) The Best Man Holiday

R/ Universal/ Week 2/ Runs: 2,041. Friday: $3.8 million. Saturday: $5.6 million. Sunday: $3.3 million. Weekend Total: $12.8 million. Per-screen average: $6,315. Total domestic gross: $50.8 million.

4) Delivery Man

PG-13/ Disney/ New/ Runs: 3,036/ Friday: $2.7 million. Saturday: $3.3 million. Sunday: $2.1 million. Weekend Total: $8.2 million. Per-screen average: $2,713. Total domestic gross: $8.2 million.

5) Free Birds

PG/ Relativity/ Week 4/ Runs: 3,071/ Friday: $1.1 million. Saturday: $2.6 million. Sunday: $1.6 million. Weekend Total: $5.3 million. Per-screen average: $1,748. Total domestic gross: $48.7 million.

6) Last Vegas

PG-13/ CBS Films/ Week 4/ Runs: 2,926/ Friday: $1.3 million. Saturday: $2 million. Sunday: $1.1 million. Weekend Total: $4.3 million. Per-screen average: $1,488. Domestic Total: $53.9 million

7) Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

R/ Paramount/ Week 5/ Runs: 2,625/ Friday: $1.1 million. Saturday: $1.5 million. Sunday: $835,000. Weekend Total: $3.4 million. Per-screen average: $1,303. Domestic Total: $95.4 million.

8 ) Gravity

PG-13/ Warner Bros / Week 8/ Runs: 1845/ Friday: $886,000/ Saturday: $1.47 million. Sunday $812,000. Weekend Total: $3.3 million. Per screen average: $1,773. Domestic Total: $245.4 million

9) 12 Years A Slave

R/ Fox Searchlight/ Week 6/ Runs: 1,474/ Friday: $800,000. Saturday: $1.26 million. Sunday: $756,000. Weekend Total: $2.8 million. Per-screen average: $1,882. Domestic Total: $29.4 million.

10) Dallas Buyers Club

R/ Focus Features/ Week 4/ Runs: 666/ Friday: $773,000. Saturday: $1.2 million. Sunday: $787,000. Weekend Total: $2.7 million. Per-screen average: $4,113. Domestic Total: $6.5 million.

5TH UPDATE, 12:36 AM PST: Based on early numbers from Saturday evening, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire did a better than expected total north of $52 million, and that will lead to a record shattering weekend that could exceed $160 million. In the battle of big sequels, that will put The Hunger Games: Catching Fire‘s first weekend within spitting distance of matching the first three week domestic gross of Thor: The Dark World, whose total domestic gross which after three weekends should top out at $168 million. Waiting on international numbers on Catching Fire but am told they will also be outsized. Thor: The Dark World performed at $6.6 million Saturday while The Best Man Holiday did $5.7 million. Delivery Man had a small bump in business with a $3.5 million Saturday night, which will bring that film to $8.3 million. That is not nearly as virile as the film’s premise, about a sperm donor who discovers he is the biological father of hundreds of kids. If only they all showed up to see the film! For a film with a reported of $26 million, that looks like a disappointment heading into the Thanksgiving weekend. A more thorough analysis coming tomorrow.   

4TH UPDATE: Apologies this wasn’t up earlier, but three weeks on West Coast time and a long Friday night flight home and…I overslept. So the Friday numbers are in, and, mirroring the bloody premise of the film, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire looks like it will emerge from the weekend setting some records. It finished with a stronger than expected $70 million Friday night that now has all the studios predicting that the film will erase The Twilight Saga: New Moon‘s place in the record books for a November opening, and that it will just barely surpass the opening weekend gross of The Hunger Games. Thor 2 comes in a little lighter than expected; The Best Man Holiday comes in a bit stronger than expected; new entry Delivery Man didn’t play well, and it will go down as another disappointment for Vince Vaughn even though people seem to like the movie. These long leading man careers have ebbs and flows and Vaughn has been ebbing since he followed Wedding Crashers and The Break-Up with Fred Claus and Four Christmases. Since then it has been…look out below! It doesn’t take a genius to since he burst on the screen with Swingers that what he does best is play a fast talking anti-hero in adult-themed movies. How about one of those hard R-rated comedies with a sharp director and a script better than The Watch? More later, but here are the adjusted numbers:

Related: Can ‘Catching Fire’ Hit Some Very Big Box Office Targets?

1) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

PG-13/ Lionsgate/ New/ Runs: 4,163/ Friday: $70 million; Saturday: $49 million. Sunday: $34 million. Weekend Total: $153 million. Per-screen average: $36,824.

2) Thor: The Dark World

PG-13/ Disney/ Week 3/ Runs: 3,713 (-128). Friday: $4 million; Saturday: $6.4 million; Sunday: $3.8 million. Weekend Total: $14.4 million. Per-screen average: $3,873. Total domestic gross: $168.1 million.

3) The Best Man Holiday

R/ Universal/ Week 2/ Runs: 2,041. Friday: $3.8 million. Saturday: $5.5 million. Sunday: $3.3 million. Weekend Total: $12.7 million. Per-screen average: $6,224. Total domestic gross: $50.6 million.

4) Delivery Man

PG-13/ Disney/ New/ Runs: 3,036/ Friday: $2.7 million. Saturday: $3.2 million. Sunday: $2.1 million. Weekend Total: $8.1 million. Per-screen average: $2,945. Total domestic gross: $8.1 million.

5) Free Birds

PG/ Relativity/ Week 4/ Runs: 3,071/ Friday: $1.1 million. Saturday: $2.4 million. Sunday: $1.6 million. Weekend Total: $5.1 million. Per-screen average: $1,646. Total domestic gross: $48.3 million.

6) Last Vegas

PG-13/ CBS Films/ Week 4/ Runs: 2,926/ Friday: $1.3 million. Saturday: $2 million. Sunday: $1.1 million. Weekend Total: $4.4 million. Per-screen average: $1,520. Domestic Total: $54 million

7) Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

R/ Paramount/ Week 5/ Runs: 2,625/ Friday: $1.1 million. Saturday: $1.6 million. Sunday: $875,000. Weekend Total: $3.5 million. Per-screen average: $1,343. Domestic Total: $95.5 million.

8 ) Gravity

PG-13/ Warner Bros / Week 8/ Runs: 1845/ Friday: $880,000/ Saturday: $850,000. Sunday $850,000. Weekend Total: $3.3 million. Per screen average: $1,773. Domestic Total: $245.5 million

9) 12 Years A Slave

R/ Fox Searchlight/ Week 6/ Runs: 1,474/ Friday: $797,000. Saturday: $1.2 million. Sunday: $741,000. Weekend Total: $2.8 million. Per-screen average: $1,882. Domestic Total: $29.4 million.

10) Dallas Buyers Club

R/ Focus Features/ Week 4/ Runs: 666/ Friday: $770,000. Saturday: $1.2 million. Sunday: $776,000. Weekend Total: $2.7 million. Per-screen average: $4,113. Domestic Total: $6.4 million.

Related: ‘Hunger Games 2: Catching Fire’ Tracking New November Record: Hot $140M-$150M

3RD UPDATE: The Friday night numbers are coming through, and here is how the Top 10 looks. You might notice that Ender’s Game, Captain Phillips and About Time didn’t make the cut this week. Cracking the Top 10 is Dallas Buyers Club, which, like 12 Years A Slave, is an overachieving low-budget film that will try to hang in through Oscar season. The other newcomer, Delivery Man, is not looking promising as a counterprogramming entry, landing in fourth place. Here goes:

1) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

PG-13/ Lionsgate/ New/ Runs: 4,163/ Friday: $67.5 million; Saturday: $45.9. Sunday: $32.1. Weekend Total: $145.5 million. Per-screen average: $34,958

2) Thor: The Dark World

PG-13/ Disney/ Week 3/ Runs: 3,713 (-128). Friday: $4.2 million; Saturday: $6.7 million; Sunday: $4 million. Weekend Total: $14.9 million. Per-screen average: $4,036. Total domestic gross: $168.7 million.

3) The Best Man Holiday

R/ Universal/ Week 2/ Runs: 2,041. Friday: $3.5 million. Saturday: $5.1 million. Sunday: $3.1 million. Weekend Total: $11.7 million. Per-screen average: $5,737. Total domestic gross: $49.6 million.

4) Delivery Man

PG-13/ Disney/ New/ Runs: 3,036/ Friday: $3 million. Saturday: $3.6 million. Sunday: $2.3 million. Weekend Total: $8.9 million. Per-screen average: $2,945. Total domestic gross: $8.9 million.

5) Free Birds

PG/ Relativity/ Week 4/ Runs: 3,071/ Friday: $1.1 million. Saturday: $2.5 million. Sunday: $1.6 million. Weekend Total: $5.3 million. Per-screen average: $1,741. Total domestic gross: $48.6 million.

6) Last Vegas

PG-13/ CBS Films/ Week 4/ Runs: 2,926/ Friday: $1.3 million. Saturday: $2 million. Sunday: $1.1 million. Weekend Total: $4.4 million. Per-screen average: $1,520. Domestic Total: $54 million

7) Gravity

PG-13/ Warner Bros / Week 8/ Runs: 1845/ Friday: $943,000/ Saturday: $1.6 million. Sunday $907,000. Weekend Total: $3.5 million. Per screen average: $1,897. Domestic Total: $245.7 million

8 ) Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

R/ Paramount/ Week 5/ Runs: 2,625/ Friday: $1 million. Saturday: $1.6 million. Sunday: $867,000. Weekend Total: $3.5 million. Per-screen average: $1,332. Domestic Total: $95.5 million.

9) 12 Years A Slave

R/ Fox Searchlight/ Week 6/ Runs: 1,474/ Friday: $790,000. Saturday: $1.2 million. Sunday: $734,000. Weekend Total: $2.7 million. Per-screen average: $1,864. Domestic Total: $29.3 million.

10) Dallas Buyers Club

R/ Focus Features/ Week 4/ Runs: 666/ Friday: $727,000. Saturday: $1.1 million. Sunday: $732,000. Weekend Total: $2.5 million. Per-screen average: $3,882. Domestic Total: $6.3 million.

Related: Hot Trailer: ‘Hunger Games: Catching Fire’

2ND UPDATE, 8:23 PM PST: Just got off a plane, and the weekend box office picture is getting a little clearer. Forget the outsized numbers being tossed around all week, it looks like the question will be whether The Hunger Games: Catching Fire breaks the November record of $142.8 million set by Twilight Saga: New Moon. A few estimates are rolling in at around $140 million. I would bet the film does better than that. Why does a movie overachieve? Usually, it happens when word of mouth is good and screen count is high, and this has both things going for it. Last weekend’s The Best Man Holiday got a strong CinemaScore and got a 66% on Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer, which measured reviewer response, but a 93% on the audience meter, which meant it was a crowd-pleaser. Catching Fire got an 89% on the Tomatometer measuring critics and a 94% audience score. So it certainly has a chance to surpass the Twilight Saga film. It will have to overachieve if it has a chance to match the $152.5 million opening weekend that the original enjoyed when it bowed March 23, 2012. And when Lionsgate opened that film Thursday, there was no 8 PM screening. Have audiences tired of watching kids killing other kids after the curiosity wore off from the first film? I doubt it. The original, directed by Gary Ross, grossed $691 million worldwide. Let’s see how the Francis Lawrence-directed follow-up fares, with the benefit of opening in the Thanksgiving corridor.

Of the other new movies, it looks like Disney/DreamWorks’ Delivery Man, with Vince Vaughn who gets surprised to discover he’s a prolific spawner, will be lucky to pass the $10 million gross mark. Weekend numbers coming soon…

BREAKING: Portending a whopping opening weekend, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire grossed $25.25 million domestically from last night’s shows that started 8 PM. That number sits 28% higher than the Thursday gross of the first film, but I’m told that in that equation, the original did not have an 8 PM showing so that skews the numbers. The international estimate for 43 territories is already $32 million, counting the early grosses when it opened a week early in Brazil. Most major territories opened more than double that of the first film, according to Lionsgate. The film opens in 65 territories this weekend. As for the weekend box office numbers, go out, buy a hat and then hang on the heck onto it, because this film could hit $160 million-$180 million for the weekend and then continue strongly through Thanksgiving weekend. According to Fandango, 92% of its advance ticket sales are for this movie, and that breaks a record set by the last Iron Man. The November record holder, Twilight Saga: New Moon, holds the mark at around $142.8 million; sorry Teams Edward and Jacob, because this film will likely blow right past that. Catching Fire is in 4163 locations, which means the screen count is higher. IMAX screens last night showed a 75% spike over the first film.

This has a shot to become a truly global box office franchise for the ages, and it will benefit over the first film in that the November release date is more gross favorable than the March launch of the first film, done when Lionsgate only hoped that it had the goods. Hollywood has long faced the fact that no women mean anything at the box office except for Angelina Jolie, Sandra Bullock after Gravity and The Blind Side, and Meryl Streep, who defies every formula. After this movie, and American Hustle to follow, we might just be looking at the next female star who matters, as Katniss Everdeen drives an arrow through the heart of global stardom. While some actresses seemed poised for such a breakthrough, we haven’t really seen one like this since Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman. The nice thing is her entrance into this quartet, is all four have won Oscars, and they all can act.