The numbers look bad. Instead of seeing 2011 revenues grow 8% to 10%, the projection in August, National CineMedia now says that it could end the year anywhere from -5.8% to +1.8%. Estimates for the key cash flow figure — Adjusted OIBDA (operating income before depreciation and amortization) — are even worse: It now is expected to come in from -5.6% to -1.1% as opposed to the August projection of +6% to +11%.
Centennial, CO – October 13, 2011 – National CineMedia, Inc. (NASDAQ: NCMI) (the Company), the managing member and owner of 48.7% of National CineMedia, LLC (NCM LLC), the operator of the largest digital in-theatre network in North America, today reaffirmed its third quarter outlook and lowered its fourth quarter and full year 2011 revenue and Adjusted OIBDA outlook. The prior outlook was provided on August 4, 2011.
The Company now expects full year 2011 revenue to be in the range of $425 million to $435 million, compared to the prior outlook of $460 million to $470 million and expects Adjusted OIBDA to be in the range of $210 million to $220 million, compared to the prior outlook of $236 million to $246 million.
“Our third quarter results are expected to fall within the original guidance provided on our second quarter conference call, reflecting an approximate 5% to 9% increase in Adjusted OIBDA over the third quarter of 2010, which had increased 43.6% over the third quarter of 2009. Despite this strong 2011 third quarter, the fourth quarter national scatter market has not developed on a basis consistent with prior years. We believe this is related to the confluence of a disproportionate share of advertising budgets being committed in the TV upfronts prior to the subsequent change in economic sentiment, which has resulted in reduced spending by advertising clients due to the heightened economic uncertainty,” said Kurt Hall, National CineMedia’s Chairman and CEO.