Looks like May wasn’t so bad for movie studios after all. Five of the month’s eight major theatrical releases tracked by SNL Kagan are poised to be profitable. Averaged together, each of the films will generate $464.7 million from theaters, home video, and TV sales. That’s 2.13 times the films’ estimated average cost of $217.7 million — making this the most lucrative May since 2007 when revenues on average were 2.4 times higher than expenses. Since the cost tallies don’t include distribution fees, interest, profit participation and residuals, Kagan figures a film will be profitable if revenues are 1.75 times higher than the estimated expenses.
Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides sailed to the head of the profitability armada. Kagan figures the studio ultimately will see $1.2 billion in revenue, 2.88 times its estimated $421.9 million cost. Warner Bros’ Hangover Part II follows with expected revenues of $611.4 million vs costs of $213.8 million. The winners list also includes Universal’s Bridesmaids ($311.0 million over $139.6 million in expenses), Paramount’s Thor ($660.7 million over $301.5 million) and DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 2 ($652.3 million over $301.8 million).
Expected losers are TriStar’s Jumping The Broom ($63.4 million vs costs of $66.9 million), Warner Bros’ Something Borrowed ($94.2 million over $135.9 million), and Screen Gems’ Priest ($108.7 million over $160.6 million).