I love these kinds of reports because they confirm for us what we already suspect. According to research firm SNL Kagan, a film must hit 1.75 on its Kagan Profitability Index to become a moneymaker. But the dozen March releases will average 1.03 — down from the 1.78 average from a year ago (which included hits Disney’s Alice In Wonderland and DreamWorks’ How To Train Your Dragon.) Analyst Wade Holden writes that certain money losers will be Relativity’s Take Me Home Tonight and Warner Bros’ Red Riding Hood. But Holden expects Disney’s Mars Needs Moms from Robert Zemeckis’ ImageMovers Digital to be the biggest bomb, projected to generate just $81.3 million in revenues, although it cost $264.8 million to produce, distribute, and market. The Kagan report says Sony’s Battle: Los Angeles, Relativity’s Limitless, and Paramount’s Rango may come close “if [the studios] have a favorable distribution agreement” with theaters.
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